Spekulatius

Adding to LHX here. Shares are back all the way to 2020 levels. Main culprit is margin pressure and perhaps the AJRD buyout, which adds debt . Their order book is pretty healthy . I think they can overcome the margin pressure and I can see them earning $17/ share in a few years. Businesses is fairly capital light so most of the earnings go directly into FCF.

I use interactive brokers and Tikr watchlists. I used to use Yahoo/finance but they have been working hard to make it un-usable for a decade know and finally succeeded (imo)

This article seems very speculative. I don't think anyone can know what is going on within the CCP inner circle.

Even if something is "un-investible" it can be an intelligent speculation.

Sold my KW 2/2030 bonds I had for a small profit. I am not feeling all that giddy about the collateral. I am surprised the equity still trades where it does (~$16/share).

Netflix has two great docu series: 1) We are Newcastle United - about the transformation of the Newcastle Football Club into a top tier team (with Saudi money) 2) Zero Gravity - a documentary about Wayne Shorter and his role in modern Jazz Both are extremely well made shows. I on,y watched one episode of both , but they are captivating and watching this Newcastle DOCU series you understand why rich owners like to own soccer teams or sports clubs in general.

Tepper move seems more like a giant swing at a big tech which includes some Chinese securities as well. He used to be a distressed security investor - has he become a swingtrader now? I don’t think he was ever buy and hold.

Weather in FL is a bit of a question mark. I prefer the weather in the NE over FL except 4 month in winter. MA is not too bad with 5% state income tax and the revenue tax is actually a bit lower than FL. NH is hard to beat with no income and no revenue tax and it’s a beautiful place, except in winter. My wife thinks we should just move over the border once we retire and stay here in the area. The RE taxes are sort of high through, just like in MA. Many ways to slice the cake depending on your preferences. States like NY or IL are definitely not place to be when you are retired.

In addition, if you own a property in Maui, you are certainly not poor and probably in the top 3% or better in terms of wealth in the US population. That what we are really doing is welfare for the already rich. I can understand some help for those who work there in tourism and are displaced and need to rebuild their life elsewhere, but if you are homeowner in one of the most exclusive and expensive areas in the US. Sorry for the OT rant. On the insurance, let say you pay $5K more for is insurance than in the Northeast for a $500K house, that just offsets the higher cost of property taxes in the NE vs Florida. Fl taxes for a $500k house would be ~1% of the home value and $5k and more like 2% in the NE ($10k) roughly. So it’s probably not a game changer to prevent you from moving there unless it gets much worse.

German Taurus missile. These marketing departments for weapon manufacturers are getting better. There is a version to take down bridges too. RIP Kerch bridge once those bad boys arrive:

Well, my starter positions are small. I do agree there is a lot of uncertainty here.

With 15% of Floridians not having homeowners insurance ( I guess they have no mortgage) and 82% having no flood insurance, I think the implicit expectation is that any big catastrophe losses will be socialized.

Currency movements in China are not free and need approval from ministries. The Yuan is not freely convertible into other currencies in large volumes either. China is a bit like a roach motel, you can get money in easily but getting it out can be quite difficult. I suspect quite a bit of cash from international companies is trapped in China.

This should really be an IR deck for an air conditioning or backup generator company.

My wife is ethnically Chinese too, but grew up in Thailand. We know a lot of 1st and 2nd generation Chinese emigrants and they are deeply distrustful of what happens in China. Those living in HK or Macau want out or have already a foreign passport ready to go if needed. This was not the case 15 years ago.

Its is interesting that one of the new ideas was to sell dump a minority stake in ESPN to a strategic investor. I guess that's not going to happen. ESPN seems to be at the core of the dispute.

NXST (and other broadcasters) really get toilet flushed. Ouch.

Yes, now I see it too. It's odd that other media stocks are down more than Disney though. ESPN is the biggest racked in cable - it costs more than many streaming services.

buying a starter in NXST this AM. Why are all media stocks down this AM? Doom and gloom from writers strike?

At major turning points in history, there is rarely a single root cause for things to turn, In most cases, it’s a confluence of things. Why did the Germans lose WW2? Was it the harsh Russian winter in 1941/42? Lack of manpower and bad logistics due to being stretched too thin? Better Russian tactics and ferocious resistance in Moscow? US aid? Why did the French Revolution happen? American Revolution showing the way L Rising bread prices and inflation? Excesses of the French King and Nobility? Likely all of the above.

Looks like the Russian frontline is cracking some more with Verbove likely already in Ukrainian control. Verbove controls one of the two main two roads into Tokmak ( which is a fortress). I do think the Ukrainian may just go around Tokmak. If Tokmak falls the hinterland is wide open. Looks like the Russians are in deep trouble if the Ukraine can exploit this still small breakthrough. Then there is the whole drone swarm issue all over Russia. You can see movies of slow drone flying over Moscow. What a disaster for the Russians On another note, it is interesting to see the nonsense that is shown on Indian media:

Definitely want to second that Dan Calin's hardcore history is gold for history buffs. I didnt want to argue, but i think there are theories around that it was more than just the death of Khan that caused the Mongol juggernaut to stop. i do think it is correct to state that the Mongols were much more than a barbarian horde. For once they facilitated trade - because they controlled such a large landmass all the way to China, it made it actually easier to travel than dealing with a dozen kingdoms and warlords. They were also masters of siege warfare and likely the first one to effectively use cannons, even though gunpowder was invented by the Chinese. Then they were masters of logistics as their communication system resembled the Pony Express.

Benevolent rulers have become malevolent rulers fairly quick. History is not on your side with this one. The same arguments have been used to justify monarchies etc. Democracy's are not perfect, but there is no alternative, imo.