Spekulatius

I highly recommend the podcast / youtube series from Asianometry: https://www.youtube.com/@Asianometry He discusses some long forgotten stocks like Wang Computer, Norsk Data, Olivetti computers etc. as well as many more topics. FWIW, I actually owned Norsk Data stock at some point (lost a bit of money on it before I bailed) - yes I am that old.

Just bought a ticket for Rhiannon Giddens. $41 is a bargain these days. Fantastic musicians:

I think the problem with BRICS is that only China and India really matter and they don't trust each other. For me the biggest news is that the gulf states and especially Saudi Arabia were added. The Saudi's indeed are a powerhouse, albeit fragile from within. They have been traditionally allied with the US but that relationship has soured so now the Saudi's need new partners to assure that their oil keeps flowing.

Crooks are everywhere. Just to name a very public example, read up how Vivek Ramaswamy made his billion. I think some people lie and commit fraud, because they can't help it. It's not about the money for them.

Because China is aggressive and has virtually attacked all their neighbors post WW2. Tibet 1946 (annexed) Korea 1950 Taiwan straight 1955/1958 Myanmar 1960 India 1962 (and several times after that) Russia 1969 Vietnam 1979 Most were under Mao but Vietnam 1979 was not. XJP is a neo Maoist, so if you are China's neighbor, you should be concerned. There is also currently a cold war with the Philippines going on, due to China planting concrete Island and then declaring the ocean around it theirs.

CCP in charge of capital allocation: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3232720/chinas-record-annual-limit-infrastructure-boosting-bonds-be-spent-october

This guy did it all wrong. He should have gambled with one day options instead. They either work or they don't before the check bounces.

Didn't the Mongols typical kill 1/4 of the population when they conquered land? I think they eventually out-expanded their logistics and that's why they stopped expanding. Then there was infighting which also increased with the larger and larger empire. I also think the Europeans learned and made better and better fortifications to basically stall the Mongols. The Mongol being so far away needed quick victories or they ran into trouble and could not sustain their troops and horses (again logistics). Or maybe it was the introduction of paper money instead of silver and gold coins that did them in.

Software Ponzis, SillyCon Valley Style: https://x.com/laurenbalik/status/1696562499447935006?s=61&t=E8YgOMPn5yLNAJ40xrQKFQ

There is just too much debt for me on BRP balance sheet for my taste (including a revolver). I did buy a bit WTW recently and keep holding my BRO late last year.

Sort of interesting to what extend they are working social media: https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-uncovers-largest-ever-chinese-influence-network-4e20be8e?mod=tech_lead_pos1

Putin thought he was winning in May 2022. Do you think Putin makes a deal when he is winning? By the way, Putin’s official condition to even start peace talks is that Ukraine gives up the land that they concerned back last year, because that’s now Russian in his view, since he (illegally) annexed it. His demand for Ukraine’ neutrality is another non-starter for the Ukraine, because a neutral Ukraine just means it’s up for grabs later for Putin a few years down the road. I think the likely end state is that Ukraine obtains NATO membership as part of the peace deal, so the borders with Russia are guaranteed by Article 5. Everything else will lead to a redo of the whole war most likely, it’s just a matter when.

I try to include both growth and traditional value picks and do a good deal of diversification. That way, the kicks in the groin get more manageable. As for cloning other people, - this has never worked for me. I do get ideas for interesting stocks but mostly are not directly actionable for me- they are more like additions to my watch list.

Looks like JXN got a bump due to inclusion in a small cap index. I wait for tomorrows dividend - $0.62 and likely will sell some too in tax deferred accounts.

This is value investing in a nutshell, in China or elsewhere. The feeling when the pain subsides is unsurpassed.

wrong GIF:

Dataroma has an interesting chart showing ( hedge? )fund exposure sorted by ticker symbol: https://www.dataroma.com/m/grid.php

Mariupol is the largest city taken by the Russians.

Hopefully not a hedge fund manager but somebody who knows how to run a business.

Incorrect. Who runs out first depends in the attrition ratio. Russia also is running out of material. For example they don’t seem to be able to field that many tanks any more. Their offensive power is gone. They have plenty of artillery, but it’s not precision guided, so every time they shoot, they open themselves up to precise Ukrainian counterbattery fire. In my opinion, Russia will run out of men and material before Ukraine does. End result are a very bad attrition ratio for the artillery for the Russian side. .

Bought a bit more LHX this AM.

If you don't like above, here is another one from Michael Clark (which i follow closely). it is clear that something is up , because the Russian are throwing their elite forces on the frontline near Robotyne (76 Paratrooper)

It a fair statement. it is also true that every one of the youtubers following the war has something to sell or hunting for eyeballs. That being said, i found his commentary in this particular case useful. These guys do have their ears on the ground and follow the telegram channels (both Russian and Ukraine) so you get the info there sooner and with more detail than with MSM. I think there is a good chance that we are going to see some action on the frontline around Robotyne and perhaps the Russian frontline is about to crack there.

Yes. the moves after the pandemic were mindboggling, considering how mundane of a commodity cold rolled steel is.

Looks like the counteroffensive finally gets some momentum. It looks like the first defense line has been cracked around Robotyne and the 2nd line is being probed. If the breach in the first line is widened the Russia may have to retreat on a much wider scale or their troops remaining in the first line could get surrounded. Also Tokmak (major logistics hub and is fortresses) is now less than 20 km from the front line which means it get under intense artillery not just HIMARS fire. Things could get ugly for the Russian fairly quickly.