Spekulatius

This is going to be fun to watch: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-examines-equity-stake-chip-makers-chips-act-cash-grants-sources-say-2025-08-20/ Every company who can afford to do so will pay back the grants pronto. I think Europe and Japan in particular can really exploit this if they play this smartly.

Magas yard stick is broken. Countries like Denmark have chipped in and yet get criticized as bad allies and then there is this Greenland thing.

Perfect example of the political horseshoe theory in action ( Bernie and Donnie want a piece of Intel): https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senator-sanders-favors-trump-plan-take-stake-intel-others-2025-08-20/

Yep, too many lame ducks that just quack and ruffle a few feathers but do no more. And the EU has no military and can’t solve the problem but NATO does.

RBT has done surprisingly well in 2024 and so far 2025 at a time when many parfume/luxury good producers have issues ($COTY, L‘Oreal, $EL etc). Same with competitors like IFF. They seemed to have a decent most around natural ingredients which en vogue as the French say. Not a super cheap stock, but cheap and good enough for me to buy a small position and potentially add to it if it’s get cheaper (or the story gets better and price doesn’t move much).

It’s probably correct that Berkshire will do nothing. I do want to point out that looking at the map and being able to do something are two different things. So far further consolation of RR was deemed not feasible due to antitrust but that seems to have changed now.

I have no issue with Israel’s not participating in US led wars - when Korea took place, Israel wasn’t even really established yet and during the Vietnam war, Israel had their wars to fight. I do think it’s right to point out that we are measuring with different yardsticks here. By the way, the MAGA ultra right makes this argument as they hate Jews.

I think the 1.5M casualties are in Putin’s army not the Ukraine‘s. On a good day, they are losing more 1000 soldiers. No matter, for Putin, it’s still winning.

Also interesting to ask how many soldiers did Israel sent to Vietnam, Gulf war 1 &2, Bosnia, Afghanistan to help out their most important ally? I haven’t seen a single complaint about that - how come?

I fail to see anything unique about bitcoin treasury co’s and I have no clue what their “yield” might be. They will all trade below NAV eventually.

I have a hard time seeing the S&P 500 doing 9.6% for the next 12 years from current levels, but that could just be me. I think it’s likely that Bollore will increase their NAV at decent Clip too. For one thing UMG is their largest Holding and it’s a pretty good business. I also think they have an obvious way to use buybacks and squeeze outs (ODET etc) to increase NAV with their current cash hoard. Squeeze outs in cash deferred accounts are not problem, because even with a small premium because you can always purchase the remaining vehicle holding essentially the same assets (Bollore).

I actually think that Trump can pull a peace deal off but he needs to show Putin the stick . So far he has only shown Putin carrots and Putin just ate them. Nato needs to be guarantor of a peace deal which by extension involves the USA because nothing happens with NATO without the USA. The key is that the guarantor is credible to both sides (Ukraine and Russia). the territorial questions can up to debate and at imo secondary because if the guarantor issue is not solved, promises and contracts wont matter.

Oder is more likely a PFIC than Bollore. So far. Bollore is one of the cases where you got minimum return for maximum effort and brain damage. Future returns are likely better but not everyone like to sit on stocks for ~5 year with nothing to show for. That’s the real risk here. I think Odet will be squeezed out next due to minimal float and that might be the one to buy at least in tax deferred accounts.

Thats quite an interesting paper especially since it seems that the EMI score seems to predict future inequality. That would imply that inequality is bound to increase further.

It is idiotic to assume that every Russian speaking person want to live in Russia. Most speak Russian and Ukrainian anyways.

I actually think this is the end game. This and NSTO membership to guarantee Ukraine’s borders post war. The war would be over tomorrow if Trump agrees to this. However without Trump or the US it can’t happen because the US effectively controls NATO. Without explicit NATO backing this is tricky because Russia is a nuclear power far in excess of what Europe can muster (essentially just the French Force de Frappe because the Uk nuclear arsenal is controlled by the US effectively).

Donbas is heavily fortified. Essentially this would mean Ukraine giving up territory for not much in return but a promise from Putin which is worth nothing. Giving up heavily fortified territory sets up the Russian for more gains if they would push further. This would only be an option if the Nato guarantees the borders for this deal.

How pitiful it is to arrange a meeting with Putin on US soil increasing his legitimacy, do so without a plan and of course Putin is doing his thing anyways . As for Europeans war, this is sort of true in geographical sense, but given that Russia is allied with Iran and China and North Korea, it’s not entirely correct either . I don’t know any one who has cheered it either or asked the US to join the fight. He is clearly bending over backwards for Putin and what did he get in return?

Even more interesting, I looks like Trump has negotiated with a Putin double. The Putin in this meeting was the “round face” Putin double.

Alaska meeting summary: Trump went unprepared rolled out red carpet for Putin, floated a few concessions without getting anything in return , foto op, Putin left before lunch. Whant happened to the 50 day ultimatum?

At this point yes, but the direction is clear. We got big government now concerning itself with almost any aspect of the economy and trying to get a cut in many cases. What do you call this?

Mitterand policies were misguided (and reversed by himself a few years later), but the French government paid a fair price for the business they acquired. The Golden share for US Steel example is a governance issue since it allows effective control without equity participation. We are now in effective government controlled market that looks more like the Chinese market than capitalism.

The fact that Bollore and ODET have underperformed the underlying business is what makes it interesting at this conjecture. I will also note that the minor building blocks of the Breton Pulley like Tramways de Rouen or Cambodge who are approaching the end game have done quite well. The entity used to be cash starved (that’s why the structure existed in the first place) but now that the structure is greatly simplified already and the mothership is cash rich from the logistic sales, one can the that pretty soon, much of the Breton pulley structure will be gone and Bollore more and more resembles a simple Holdco. I think Odet and Bollore will be collapsed into one as well. I think Mr Market sometimes sleeps on slow motion stories like Bollore where the stock trades like same old while the structure and the business itself has changed dramatically.

The difference between the red curves and the green one is that the red stuff are locally produced goods and services and the green ones come from foreign countries or at least have foreign competition. My guess is that with tariffs in place everything will look like a red curves going forward. THANK YOU FOR PAYING ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Trump nationalizing industries faster than Francois Mitterand in the early 80‘s: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/trump-administration-is-said-to-discuss-us-taking-stake-in-intel