Spekulatius

The method for sleep training is well established. Once you put them in the crib , they stay in the crib. Exception is when the diapers are wet (smell test). You check on them in Intervalls and if they cry for a long time. However, they stay in the crib, except the rare diaper change. This works, but the first couple of nights can be rough. After a few nights, the sleeping habits should improve. We started when our son was 4 month old .

I don’t necessarily know the solution in your case (differs from kid to kid and family) but cosleeping is a big mistake. Our son got to sleep on his own when he was 8 month old and you got to tough it out. In our case, establishing a ritual before going to sleep helped. Of course there are these 2Am wake-up calls but they tend to get less and less frequently. Then again, every kid is different.

I think they need to repurpose apartment targeted for tourists (like the 1.5 room we rented in Kihei) to bridge over the now homeless people in Laheina. There are tons of tourist apartments in Maui and my guess is that demand will take a little bit of a damper there anyways. Lahaina's population is only 12.7k people and not all of them have lost their homes.

Good posts from @tnp20 here and yes keep away worthless political unrelated drivel and the scope crisp around what really matters. I do wonder a bit if the CCP should try to bail out housing in general. it seems to me that a lot of housing just serves as a fairly unproductive store of value for the Chinese. The CCP probably does not to bail out the future homeowners that have paid for their apartments (in escrow accounts) but are stuck in limbo because those apartments are skeleton building cannot be completed by the developers because they don't have the cash to do so. it a catch 22 situation where the developer needs some cash to hit the next milestone and get cash released from the escrow accounts etc. Seems to me that some intervention needs to happen because these unfinished homes ruin not just the neighborhood, but also the future homeowners (there are several stories in youtube about Chinese homeowners document their plight) as well as the developers or more likely the banks and debt holders who supplied most of the funding. This seems to be a classical case where state intervention needs to happen to break a gridlock. Beyond that, a more productive use of capital would be to move away from housing and perhaps infrastructure (which relates to new home builds) to more consumption based purposes. This also reduces Chinas dependency on manufacturing and exports. That could result in a bull case for China and their economy eventually.

bought a starter in Adyen. Small adds to $C and $DFS

A couple of loosely connected thought on this tragedy: There is a lot of bad takes on this. One thing we hear is that colonialism is to blame for the fire and lack of water but how can this be? Colonialsms ceased to exist more than 100 years ago - so there was no time to fix whatever issue this may have caused? There is also very little agriculture in Maui any more - most pineapple planting are long gone (too expensive I guess). Also over - tourism is to blame/ Lahaina is more of a visitors than a hotel destination. We visited the town for a daytrip on our Maui stay in 2021 and that's pretty typical. With no / or less tourist visiting, how are people going to make a living there. There are plenty of rich people living there but the working population needs tourism as there are virtually no other jobs there. Then related - i think this is a second strike after PG&E where an utility got gets blamed to cause a fire when in reality there are many confounding factors. it is likely that a down power line caused the fire (there are online video footage suggesting so) but then again what is an utility going to do about. Do they shut down the power every time there is a fire hazard condition? Are they going to harden the grid moving power lines under ground? That would need to be paid by power customers and electricity is already very expensive on the Island. Also, al these things have to be approved by the regulator which if they had foresight they could have required the utlity company to do something beforehand, but of course that would have resulted in even higher rates. Then on some broader implications this tail risk is going to be real pressure on valuation of utility stocks, imo. The higher bond yield are bad enough but how can you live with utility stocks yielding 3-3.5% and significant tail risk while you can get ~6% bond yields in high grade bond funds and very little risk. This relative disconnect makes no sense to me and I think utility stocks will look fairly ugly in the future.

HE is a Holdco which actually owns a bank too. That bank generated ~$80M in income in 2022. So even if the utility is a zero, the Holdco has another cash flowing asset unlike other utility Holdco where there are little assets and often just another layer of debt. So, HE should be worth something even if the utility is a zero.

The problem is that the regulator needs to approve capital expenses including those for fire mitigation.

Since we are at Indy pop - I like the records from Caroline Polachek. She has an awesome voice, imo.

Hmmm - don't like the music: My guess is that this is this generation Rocky horror picture show. What can I say. This commentator in youtube says it all: @ungreth74 1 year ago Jazmin Bean songs are much like finding a severed head gift wrapped in pink ribbons on your doorstep. You can't be sure if you're supposed to feel horrified or delighted.

Bought DFS, OUT, PYPL, DOCS, C, RNG Either starter buys or adds.

Those grey heads are not wifey friendly. I feel for her.

They did own GM for a long time. I bet they sold on the short surge up. I think it was T or T Holding not a Buffett one.

This is actually a great example how MSM (in this case Fox) spins a narrative to their liking. The Maui fire and the Ukraine aid have nothing to do with each either. A disaster was declared right away which opens federal help provided the State asks for it. There is absolutely nothing that won’t be done in Maui because of the Ukraine war aid. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/08/10/president-joseph-r-biden-jr-approves-hawaii-disaster-declaration-3/ That does not prevent Fox News to connect some completely separate issues in a way that fits their own narrative and bias and creates a story out of nothing.

Ruble not doing that great any more:

These ghost cities probably exist but it's probably overblown what we read about them. Some of this is because the way the Chinese build cities or part of cities with tons of high rise condos build at the same time - it's more work in progress than a ghost city. There is a lot of un-inhabited residential real estate around though and that is simply because a condo loses value if you rent it out in China. That's because it's not in mint condition any more (or so I have been told by Chinese when I asked them about it).

This looks heavily photoshopped. l also thought you were younger.

my guess is that the average holding period is probably less than 2 month now. He completely redoes his portfolio every quarter and he might even churn it in between, but we only got snapshots every 3 month.

I am still waiting for the post where @Luca decides to move to China and shows a pic of himself living in a concrete sewer tube like Diogenes lived in a barrel.

Burry has become a rapid fire swingtrader. I bet his current positions are already different than what was posted on 6/30.

The Chinese stock market has not performed well for quite some time. There is also a bit difference between betting against something and just leaving it alone. In fact it seems like a good idea to leave all stock markets with autocratic regimes alone. I do think you can make a bull case that China is a decent trade because negativity has gone too far, although that was more the case in Fall 2022 right after the CCP party congress.

I don't think Xi plan to move China back to a control economy and to crack down on tech, because it became too powerful of a force and threatened the CCP's monopoly on power was obvious three years ago. This became more and more obvious with the Ant Financial crackdown, Jack Ma's temporary disappearance and last not least the elimination of term limits for Xi at the Party congress in fall last year. It's not just perception either, the economic impact for tech and let's say Alibaba is very real - the growth rates have gone from 30%+ growth to zero and now back to ~10%.

Is there any consequence for the risk weighting of US bonds or GSE paper for banks holding these on the balance sheet? I know the downgrading from AAA to AA+ isn't much but the risk weighting for these is low too and there is tons on the balance sheet so I think there could be some impact on the CET1 ratio.

Sold my $FNF in tax deferred accounts.

This is the after math of a M30A1 HIMARS (tungsten ball payload) on a truck convoy. Tiny little holes everywhere. You don’t want to be close when this one hits from above for sure. https://streamable.com/t/zglgyk On the counter offensive, it seems like the anchor towns of Urozhaine and Robotyne have been conquered by Ukraine forces means some progress has been made apparently. It looks like the cluster ammo has been put to good use, to soften up Russian defense lines and especially when the Russian have to leave them. It’s slow going and apparently Ukraine had to change tactics to use a much slower approach than initially planned. The above posted on Twitter, but it seems like videos are not loading on Twitter any more in many cases.