Spekulatius

The difference between the red curves and the green one is that the red stuff are locally produced goods and services and the green ones come from foreign countries or at least have foreign competition. My guess is that with tariffs in place everything will look like a red curves going forward. THANK YOU FOR PAYING ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Trump nationalizing industries faster than Francois Mitterand in the early 80‘s: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/trump-administration-is-said-to-discuss-us-taking-stake-in-intel

Event driven either works really well or does not work at all.

Likewise. Is think we bought the same day. Small position but the more I dig around, the more I like it.

Productivity growth has been very muted in the USA and Europe. it is mit the reason for deflationary forces. China and SE Asia with their large and young low cost workforce have been the main driver. We are now losing access to this supply chain (mostly by choice), so it will be interesting how this works out. i don’t think automation is the solution because China manufacturing is highly automated already. Also electricity, building cost (Capex), raw material costs (also due to tariffs) and last not least labor costs are much higher. TSMC a while ago stated that it costs twice as much to build a chip fab than the same fab in Taiwan. That means depreciation costs are twice as high as well. It all adds up.

Bought a little $GRG (Greggs) and $WDAY recently. I also added to $ACN and $ACVA.

I get the overlap but Bollore owns only ~30% of Vivendi. Even without premium taking out Vivendi cost ~2B Euro on Cash. It‘s not insignificant and Bollore would need to offer a premium. On the other hand, I think french law only requires Bollore to offer the highest price they paid in the last 12 month. i am not even sure what this is after accounting for the spin, but it’s probably not much more than the current share price. So Bollore can probably just offer a lousy price unless they really want to take out Vivendi altogether.

I recommend listening to this podcast to form an opinion: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000705520320

It’s a Mafia protection fee. Everything is for sale now. No surprise that China has security concerns now after the 360: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-state-media-says-nvidia-h20-chips-not-safe-china-2025-08-10/

Now that’s interesting: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/10/nvidia-amd-15percent-of-china-chip-sales-revenues-to-us-ft-reports.html

I found this episode insightful. Aswath Damadoran is always a good listen:

LMAO:

CSX can afford BNSF so I don’t think Berkshire could sell. They are a buyer and would need to pay or do nothing and would risk to fall behind the likes of CP or UNP/NSC which have used acquisitions to enhance their network. I guess the other option is stock for stock merger, where Berkshire would hold the majority of shares in the combined entity and the rest remains public traded. I am not sure but that would have a tax disadvantage for Berkshire (dividend taxation) and he could not control the entire cash flow either.

Berkshire may have to acquire CSX to merge their BNSF subsidy to match UNP NSC merger if it indeed happens. Otherwise, BNSF could fall further behind a combined UNP- NSC and CP transcontinental offerings. Acquiring CSX won’t be cheap as the current market cap is about $65B and Berkshire would need to pay a premium too. My guess is it might cost ~$75B to close a deal. This would take a big chunk out of Berkshires cash hoard. I don’t think Berkshire will like the Zugzwang situation as railroads currently trade at fairly high valuations. We will see how this goes if the UNP- NSC deal indeed looks like it is going through.

Maybe it will workout that but inflation was one thing that cost the democrats the election and now the population is hypersensitive after the first exposure. At last I that’s my thinking. But who knows how plays out. My guess is that the lower quartile and the upper quartile will do OK and the middle will get squeezed by inflation (losing purchasing power) but that’s had been the playbook since Reagan got in office with some variations in between.

This is unintentionally funny in so many ways:

Between Bessent saying that a one time adjustment is not Inflation and Miran getting into the Fed (he is the Mar- a Largo guy who pushes for a lower USD) you can bet that they are going to run the economy hot (low interest rate, likely high inflation, lower USD) Erdogan style. You heard it here first. https://www.barrons.com/articles/stephen-miran-fed-interest-rates-ab803813?mod=RTA

LOL, they won’t sign up here. We need to get on TikTok Investor to get in on the action.

This is going to cause political backslash: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07082025/inside-clean-energy-pjm-utility-prices-soar/ Power prices are going through the roughing the NE (PJM grid area) and likely elsewhere. Apparently datacenters are responsible for much of the new demand that is for f to push up power prices for everyone, including utility customers. PJM needs to increase grid connection and capacity (which enables power plant connection) faster or this is going to be a traimwreck.

The ultimate AI shitco has the ticker symbol $AI: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/c3-ai-fiscal-first-quarter-233000591.html News dropped on Friday evening (7:30Pm) is rarely good. C‘mon, happy hour is already over in most places:

Straight from the horses mouth - transistory inflation is not inflation, it’s a one time adjustment. Too bad Biden didn’t came up with the same idea.

Everyone has a trading plan until there is drawdown.

Sold $HCC. Made a decent quick gain on that one.

I agree. One can argue if what thy have been doing is a smart strategy but there is nothing new. They now try to develop warehouses and an industrial properties in Florida from the ground up, similar to the assemblage they sold to Blackstone a couple year ago. Same thing they have been doing for decades now.

Added a Buch of $AMRZ. Small adds to $FI, $ACN