Spekulatius

Yes, I got this paper from a thread on X that mentioned Bouchaud. What is fascinating is this is is a macroeconomic paper while the initial topical was about meme stocks, but the multiplier (% price increase / percent inflows) is quite similar (5:1 and 5.7:1) for both. We know that meme apes are not investing based on valuations but what this implies is that the entire stock market works a bit like a meme market as whole (investing independently on valuation). Fascinating stuff. Theoretically, if the market would consist of only die hard value investors that look at valuations, then inflows would not change the prices/ valuations of stocks at all because value investors would just refuse to buy, just like Buffett keeps his stash in cash if he does not find anything to buy at the price he likes. However, as we know people do change their behavior at times some can guess that at some point, people may move funds out of stocks and the 5:1 multiplier works in reverse just as well. I guess thats the reason why valuation and stock prices can change so much, while index as a whole show low volatility most of the time. We see this more with individual socks as I guess people sell just one stock and buy another typically. Index funds put money to work mechanical and just basically follow the momentum.

Her is another economic paper about how flows impact equity prices. They found similar results than above: $1 in markt flows will cause a $5 rise in equity prices. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28967/w28967.pdf One should note that this model assumes that investor allocate more or less independent of valuations, which I think is fairly correct.

I am very much familiar with the H1B visa process myself, as I emigrated to the USA in the late Nineties through H1B myself. The company has to provide extensive documentation about salary comps, the labor market. It’s quite a process. Companies can game this somewhat but not to the extend that many think. Some of the post you see on social media indicate clearly that people have no idea what they are talking about. I think the most important mistake however is the zero sum game thinking that is so common with MAGA.

I think the numbers that @Marco Van Basten cited are incorrect. https://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Sponsor/Top500_h1b_visa_sponsor_2005.pdf I get $75k mean and $80K average for JPM H1B salaries in 2005.

I don’t think what you are posting from memory is correct:

When you look at the lowest salary in this list, it all tend to be Indian outsourcing houses (Cognizant, Tata Consulting, Wipro, Infosys). ACN for example pays $195K but those pay around $100k. If you want to find abuse, that’s probably where it is. The rest seems to pay pretty food salaries in my opinion. The H1B brings in qualified and very desirable foreign educated human capital in the US. it a tremendous bargain for the US as a whole.

Actually this is not what critical race theory is. Critical race theory means that racial bias is a critical factor how our society and institutions operate and determines many outcomes. The theory was also taught at my sons high school at which point I was acquainted by it. While I don’t agree with some of the material presented, it was also taught as a theory and not as an absolute truth. Teaching a theory and fully endorsing it are different things. I was taught Marxism and Leninism theory too at school but that does not mean the teacher were communists. I don’t really have an issue with teaching critical race theory either because I think at some point it was how society operated it just much much less the case nowadays at all, if you look at many objective facts. I think parents get upset about what some schools teaches but they should only be when it is taught in a wrong way as absolute truth. Reading about Karl Marx and learning about communism does not make your kids a communist either.

This is correct, DEI affected Asian people as well but it seems that the MAGA movement/resentment is much more so driven by whites than the Asians. Asians understand the impact of DEI on college applications all too well. I told my son not to put in Asian as a race (he is of mixed race) for that very reason.

Yes, the bloated education costs are an issue. However keep in mind that most H1B from India come from the equivalent of the top 10 institutions in their country. They would most likely get a free ride at many colleges in the US as their kids do when they get here. In a way one aspect of MAGA is that’s it’s just DEI but for white people Overall, I agree, the education sector in the USA is vastly inefficient starting from high schools to colleges. Same with the health care sector and I argue construction as well. Shelter, health care and education are huge expenses for middle class households and are very bloated. its the reason why the mean person in Europe has an equivalent life standard than the mean person in the USA despite much lower nominal income.

I added all the stocks that are impacted by AI in the top 20. it’s currently 39.42% of the market cap. Almost 40% of the SP500 is and ai trade of some sorts. I haven’t done the QQQ yet. To be fair, not all of those business are just AI but they do trade on this single these now. we are now exceeding the internet and telecom bubble from 1998-2000in terms of thematic stock contribution as well as investment as a percentage of GDP by quite a bit.

A good Oompah band for once. Prost!

Applying new rules to existing VISA holders would likely be illegal (retroactively applying a law) so that’s why existing VISA holders remain as is. The logic behind this from a MAGA perspective is that these H1B emigrants take America citizens jobs away. Others claim that H1B holders are just serfs and only good for repetitive work and do as they told. Anyways, most H1B applicants are now Indians and you see a good amount of drivel around Indians at X and other platforms , which is a somewhat new occurance (I don’t see that a couple of years ago). The thinking is typical MAGA/Trump zero sum thinking that goes along with every transaction, imo. While it is correct that these people take a job, it is also true that these people are far above educated and probably work harder than American with with the same skill level. Looking at this from another perspective to create the same human resource (education ) than an H1B for an US citizen would cost probably more than $300,000 (counting the cost of education through school, university and often advanced degrees) so the us is getting an immense bargain here attractor these people. The Indians I have worked with with H1B VISA holders were exceptional well educated and did of course very well in the US often. Rising to senior scientist or leadership positions. Many IT and high tech companies have Indians in the highest positions for very good reasons. I think it’s an economically very dumb decision that is just another nail in the coffin for American exceptionalism. What yo think is happening that many MAGA folks have an inferiority complex thinking that we cannot beat the Indians, Chinese so we need to shut them out of the country and out of our market and become an Island nation behind a big beautiful concrete and economical tariff wall.

Actually a lot of people have been talking about gun control in this context. Privately and publicity. I also am not aware that Biden threatened to pull FCC license from Fox or other media outlets for misinformation.

H1B got nuked but if you lobby well maybe not. I got to in the USA through H1B.

I don’t think most people in the USA or even Europe are aware of how much hybrid warfare Russia is already exerting within NATO territory. There have been reported arsony on weapon storage, Rheinmetall facilities, water poisoning (Bundeswehr barracks ) , assassinations and now blatant airspace violations. It s quite easy to make a point that Europe is already at war with Russia and it’s clear that Oui. Is testing the waters here on many different weak points to see how much he can get away with and likely as an covert intimidation. Thats not even counting the political and social media influencing campaigns. This will go on as long as no day is going to tell them “Thou shall not pass”

It’s so easy to record something. Everyone is wearing a wire now with ubiquitous Smart Phones. Just for context, the above clip was published about 1 week before the election.

The LP structure has tax advantages (pass through of distributions are tax free) C- crop shares are more liquid. With the bifurcation , the LP holders get the best of both worlds (due to the ability to convert unit into shares) and the c- corp shares holders sort of pay for it (in my simplified view). Its not that big of a probes if LP shares are a small percentage of the capital structures, but it is a big one if LP units re a large percentage like with RYAN. Over time, it’s going to be less of an issue as units are converted into shares though.

The whole near East is going to be nuclear armed by the end of this decade. When reading through the tea leaves it is clear that they see Pakistans nuclear capability as a key components on this deal. My guess is that they are willing to pay for Pakistans nuclear umbrella and likely gain access to Pakistans nuclear technology well. The reason for this is that the Saudis know that the USA isn’t the security guarantor for the arabian peninsula any more. There will never be another large scale US led army assembled to fix issues there like it was done for Gulf war 1 and 2. It is in my opinion likely that Iran is now completing the task to become nuclear armed as well (with help from NK and Russia) and the Saudis need a counter for that. Also, related this, Israels drone strike against Qatar is very little talked about but also a major escalation ans Israel has now violated the territory of another Arabian country. This will have very far reaching repercussions .I think this another of Bibi’s policy mistakes. The above is connected to this as well. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-israels-strike-on-doha-is-forcing-a-gulf-security-reckoning/

Russia violating Estonia air space with fighter jets This after drone incursions in Romania and Poland. The Russian jets were in Estonia’s air space for a while, so this was no accident. Estonia is requesting formal consultation.. I personally think they should just shoot them down if it happens again, because Russia is clearly testing NATO. I am sure the Russian understand “Thou shall not pass” if the fighter jets are gone.

The squeeze out for Moncey, Cambodge and Artois were declared non- compliant by the Judge, so they can’t complete those. What does happen is that Bollore keeps buying up the shares slowly but surely.

IBKR has the same structure. I think it’s a problem if LP units are >> than C- Corp shares.

The better question is why are Bollore shares trending down? I did not see any news and the 6 month realist did not disclose anything materially new either. The squeeze out of Moncier, Artois and Cambodge went into some roadblock c, so they are just doing it the slow way gobbling up shares in the market from time to time. They also keep buying back Bollore shares themselves. Odet used to own ~60% and now they own 71% of Bollore and it’s mostly due to Bollore buybacks (because that’s where the cash is now). The worm Ouroboros keeps eating itself.

The valuation looks attractive. I do think that LSEG is down in sympathy with data providers since that’s a large part of their business.

I think it disadvantages the holders of shares relative to the holders of LP units. The LP unit holders have pass through tax treatment and all the advantages that holders of shares have (since they can convert units into shares). Other folks have better option on the tax implications. It just seems to me just looking at the income statements that holder of shares are getting a raw deal here.

BOL ( Bollore), Exor LSEG (London stock exchange) and FDS.