Spekulatius

Well I own $BTI so emphatically yes.

Similar thing happened with my CHL holding. Trump already lost the election, yet Munchin somehow decided right after Christmas 2020 to ban US institutions and person from holding them causing forced selling. The ruling wasn’t even clear at that point, so the brokerages made their own rules because nobody knew what to do. This is the risk you are taking when owning shares from a country that is an adversity to the US. Just look at what happens in WW1 and WW2 with German business in the US. Schering Plough is an interesting history to read on that matter. @Castanza also bought the shares after the invasion to Ukraine deeply discounted, so it was a clear gamble which so far has not panned out. At least to me, it’s pretty clear that if you own Chinese shares and China attacks Taiwan, your shares are going to be very likely frozen for a long time. You can debate all you want what is right or not, but history has shown that in a war, your ownership rights to foreign assets are likely forfeited. Thats nothing new either, but has been true literally forever.

@ValueArb $RILEY involved in this as well. They seem to have a knack to align with dubious characters. Marc Cohodes is on them and think it’s a terminal short. Wouldn’t mind seeming them becoming roadkill personally.

You think this is nice? Looks like a Courtyard budget hotel building to me. Imagine having tons of money and building this

This perhaps could deserve its own thread but HDB (HDFC bank) looks interesting according to this writeup from valuepunks : https://valuepunks.substack.com/p/hdfc-bank-an-update I don’t know much about Indian banks, but HDB stock does look like a decent opportunity.

A good part of the real estate boom occurred under his watch. He has been in power since 2013 after all. RE was a way for the CCP to make their GDP growth numbers and that’s why they kept encouraging RE and now it’s way too big and those investors in RE are likely screwed. Xi now wants to deflate RE slowly as to not implode the economy. I think Xi is the worst leader China had since Mao. Anyways, I think the big companies like Alibaba, Tencent etc can do well despite all this, provided they are going to be left alone by the CCP, but that does not seem quite likely either.

His early exploits can still be found here in his blog: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/author/admin/page/66/ He definitely had thing going on with real estate in Ulan Bator (Mongolia) which don’t ended well for investors. In my opinion, it’s clear he has come a long way.

Kuppy seems to have learned a few things along the way - he is more flexible and his risk management seems better. Many great investors blew up -Ackman blew up twice with his Target vehicle and Gotham Partners, that didn’t prevent him from being successful later,

China needs to be even more afraid to get blocked themselves if they do me a play on Taiwan. I think it’s a likely counter play if Taiwan gets attacked and blockaded and China has no good way to counter this and it would absolutely wreck their economy. Zeigen is right on one thing, China geographic location is absolutely terrible from the POV to make war against the allied Japan, US, Australia. You can literally cut China off from most of their trade flow by placing a carrier combat unit in the Singapore / Malacca straight and no Chinese ship is going to make it from the Indian Ocean to China any more.

I think he regards $AAPL as a never sell holding, similar to $KO, $AXP and possibly $BAC. He is at heart a coffee can investor. The way he wrote about Apple in his last annual reports suggests so.

Insider trading is if you trade as an insider on material non-public information that you received through your employment. Disclosing this information to others that may trade on this is also insider trading.

I actually think that NVDA makes more sense than AAPL. As @ArminvanBuyout mentioned, the multiples are not that differ on t and if you are bullish on AI, NVDA should grow by leaps and bounds more so than AAPL. AAPL looks more and more like KO in 1999.

Elon is clearly valuable for Tesla and I think he deserves some stock, so the board cannot just ignore his request. There is a question how much is justified or not. I think the board could structure a deal about him having substantial voting control on the AI part of the business without causing excessive dilution for Tesla shareholders. Another way would be to create another class voting share stock with more voting power. Both could work if it’s really voting control he is after.

Added a bit more $HUM today on today’s earnings warning. I am not pleased but it is what it is. Thats why I like to take smaller positions first, because it gives some room to buy more on weakness. FWIW, this one is in the penalty box until there is further clarity on cost trends this year.

Capedge is still free and has this “delta” functionality, they call it “view diff “ . I tested it out and it seems to work. My guess is that Capedge won’t remain free forever, but for now it is. Capedge is great for tracking new filings.

@cknucks First time I see someone mentioned $APD - what your thesis here? Supplying gases is a good business and if the hydrogen becomes a means of energy storage or replaces dirtier alternatives, then it should work out very nicely for $APD and competitors like Air Liquide or Linde. I am not sure the valuation is that great at a time of higher interest rates, because the business need a lot of Capex.

Sounds like you have done your research. Hedges are limited in duration so how well KW does depend on the interest rate trajectory. If Fairfax bails them out, they are going to charge and arm and a leg and the equity will suffer.

The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me.

No idea, but an analyst from Citigroup downgraded the stock according to my newsfeed from IB. I typically ignore brokerage downgrades, I don’t think it’s something to fret about, unless they really present some new facts.

Seems like a good day to add $CPNG

Purges are done quietly. People disappear. New people take their job. Just because corruption exists, I would not assume that the Chinese armed forces are a paper tiger. it is very clear that they substantially have increased their capabilities and continue to do so. Unlike Russia, they have a strong industrial backbone which is necessary for a defense industry.

Well, they are profitable. I understand why the finance their cars, it's secured debt and relatively cheap. Cars can be relatively easily liquidated, so they can reduce leverage if the business slows by selling off cars, which they do every fall going into winter (because there is less seasonal demand). What I don't get is why they add so much corporate debt. I guess the answer is because they can and to juice returns on equity. FWIW - Sixt (family controlled) runs a much less levered model with a substantial equity layer. I guess they more concerned about not going to zero than to juice the equity returns; https://about.sixt.com/en/investor-relations/

Some of his newer stuff is quite good. I like the Laughing Apple. Just discovered it after going through his Albums. He made some so so stuff after taking a long break (decades!) and converting to Islam but this one is just a great folk Album:

The cars were always financed with debt, but what really surprised me when I looked at both Hertz and Avis balance sheet that they added some corporate unsecured debt at the company level. So these business are a really a pile of unsecured debt on top of a huge pile of secured debt with a sliver of equity. The stocks seem very much like options themselves. Great if it works, but a zero if it doesn’t.

Sounds beautiful. Thanks for sharing.