Spekulatius

Crude has been weak but the stocks of energy companies have been stable or evne bullish recently. They are not a bargain right now.

I don’t have a clue about MNDY. I try to stick to mission critical ERP like software. GTLB, HUBS and CRM meet the stickiness criteria, but MNDY probably not. I think HUBS competes with CRM and I think right now, it’s more attractively valued.

HUBS , DB1 and adds to WDAY, NTDOY

I don’t think so. If they increase the membership feee too much , the marginal user will drop their membership . They also will have trouble signing up new users (young families etc.) which means their funnel dies. There is pricing power there, but they have to be smart on how to use it. The smart way to increase pricing is to increase the perceived value of the goods and devices provided.

Some moats just lose relevancy. The moat is still there but what it was supposed to defend loses relevancy. This happens with booze business. I think most example for this are in tech. The moat becomes a prison of sorts where management is damned if they break out and damned if they stay in. Examples are Motorola , Cisco, IBM and I think in the future the analog semiconductor business may end up with the same problem.

WEB does not buy either when there is blood on the streets. Maybe he never sees enough blood, he needs to be a massacre and those are rare.

One battle after another another. Probably the best movie of 2025 and a very timely release as far as far as Zeitgeist is concerned, It’s got indie vibes and a great cast action and cinematography all woven into one. https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/one_battle_after_another

These ICE officers are not well trained. They are also very aggressive moving around in unmarked vehicles, without ID, masks etc. Accidents like what happened to Mrs. Good are bound to happen. It won’t be the last one either.

He has floated a similar thing prior to elections.

I don’t think Venzuelan crude works at $50 barrel economically which is a bit like a catch 22.

If the regime in Iran falls, it’s actually not bullish for crude at all, except in the very short term.

Well Iran has protests now too, similar to the 2022 one after the girl got beaten to death. Seems like this time it is economically motivated (currency dropped like a stone casing inflation) and then of course turned political. One of the good things about low oil prices is that all those jackass regimes like Iran, Russia and Venezuela live off oil and their income is now crumbling.

He did not rename the defense department into Department of War for nothing. Imperialism requires a large army and foremost Navy and that comes at a cost. One has to pay and build the toys first before playing with them. The last time Imperialism was tried it didn’t end too well.

I don’t get why Trump is so eager to deal with Rodriguez (she is just another face of the old regime ) instead of supporting Machado ( the winner of the 2024 election ) who appears to be sidelined for now. I guess we don’t really need regime change as long as the old regime complies with US demands and we can run the country as a puppet regime from a desk in the White house. For context, Trump said in his press conference that Machado is “not respected” in Venezuela. Just another 3d chess move, I guess.

Just use TIKR. The stock price has tracked earnings very closely from 2014 to 2019 and after that , things got wobbly. Before 2014, earning were suppressed by the fixed license to SaaS transition for a while. I don’t think the divergence was ever as large than it has been now.

Bought a bit more $GTLB and $RYAN this morning.

There is always the refurbish and reuse option.

Its got nothing to downing operating t the bases, Trump wants to expand the US territory and is after minerals. The Greenlander already have a say and as far as I know said no to US advances. They would be stupid to join the US because of the minerals are really there, they will all stupid rich, because there are only 56k of them. If they become an US colony, they have much less agency. Its pretty clear to anyone that what is happening is here 19 century imperials. Last years WH security directive pretty much says so.

I agree. The Europeans let the Russian ghost ships run through the Baltic ocean and scrape their communication cables. It’s basically a NATO lake and they should just blockade it. This would get more attention than issuing just another joint statement.

Sold most of my FILA (European SOP play based on value or the Indian sub). I don’t really like the business after reviewing it again. Made a bit of money on that one but nothing to write home about.

The near term focus for health insurers will all be about restoring margins. I expect a couple years of hard market for health insurers. I sold out of CNC (before the large drop) as well, my horses are ELV and MOH and a bit of UNH. I look at this as a 12-24 month trade roughly but may change my mind at any time.

Putin wasn’t anti NATO / west when he was elected. He somehow jumped the shark in the 2001-2007 time frame , when he developed his current ideological framework. In an alternative Universe without Putin, it would have been plausible and perhaps likely that Russia joined NATO.

Putin tried this at the beginning of the invasion and his spies failed. I think there were several attempts to kill Zelensky after wards too. It’s only fair game if Ukraine could return the favor. I think the Europeans could help Ukraine to do so- you can take his jet down with a bit of luck with a shoulder fired missile when it’s landing just to name one example.

I don’ t think Trump cares about NATO, he has checked out of this club a while ago. The clearest evidence was that security paper where he put himself as the mediator between NATO and Russia, even though the USA is still member of NATO. The sooner the European leader realize that NATO is over and a NATO 2.0 without the USA needs to be build, the better of Europe is. Maybe the annexation of Greenland will provide the catalyst. I think it’s coming.

UMG drives the stock price for. Bollore and RACE the stock price for Exor and the sentiment and momentum on those hasn’t been great. They are both pretty good business and should do OK operationally.