Spekulatius

Damodaran’s model actually isn’t that complex. He uses the same spreadsheet over and over again and actually starts with a story and the tries to put numbers behind that story. Even better, he posts his spreadsheet so you can download it and change input variables to your liking and based on what you think the story is. had also clearly keeps track of his assumptions and there is total transparency and he will tell in follow up posts where reality different from his model. I think it’s a great and transparent approach. He did some good work on Tesla for example where he took apart the underlying assumption that make or break this investment. I find this very helpful. It is also not about the result (of the spreadsheet) but about the way you get there.

Exxon sells their shares pro rata in their issuer bids and keeps their stake at ~70%. Seems like they have no intention of buying this outright.

Cramer is an entertainer, the topic just happens to be business and stocks. He is not stupid, but his customer don’t own any yachts, at least none bought with what they learned in his shows. Some CEO interviews can be worthwhile.

IMO (Imperial oil, Exxon subsidy) is not much talked about , but they have reduced their sharecount from 850M shares in 2018 to ~560M shares after the last issuer bid. All this without much debt and while increasing production.

I am currently in Pukhet / Thailand and you would think it’s a Russian colony now. My wife is from Thailand and knows some friends with extensive travel experience and they told her to be careful with Taxis as the Russian Mafia has taken hold in the transportation business, so we got our driver through local connections here. Anyways, I hear a Russian spoken everywhere and there are Cyrillic signage everywhere as well as some stores that seem to cater to Russian exclusively. Looks like the Russian are using the Thai long term Visa programs to stay here for the long run. I guess you could say there is some leakage from Putin’s regime.

Yes all else being equal, higher interest rates should lead to higher CR because earnings from float should increase and that can compensate for higher CR’s. Right now insurers have tailwind from both the hard market and higher investment income due to higher interest rates and I don’t think both will persist forever.

Interesting post on the destruction of a couple of Russian SU-34 fighter jets who thought they were safe (over Russia) but I guess not. They were downed by Patriot missiles deep over Russia.

Nikes profit warning could be a secular problem rather than a temporary or cyclical one. From what I read and hear, the Chinese consumer increasingly prefers domestic brands rather than foreign ones. Japanese (Fukushima water resales) and US brands (geopolitical tension) could be harder hit than Europeans ones. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nikes-warnings-china-scare-other-025856754.html

I can get used to XMas with palm trees

Prosus and Tencent are down a mid teens percentage in European trading due to CCP cracking down on online gaming again. It is not the first time and probably not the last time. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-china-curb-gaming-spend-041159548.html

I added to my JCI position recently as well. I also got a first lot of HUM last night and will try to get more in my other accounts.

Gaza is just an excuse. Neither the Saudi leadership nor the Houthis care about it. The Houthis talk more about a Jerusalem then Gaza, Iran has allied with them because they have the same enemy which is Israel.

Weeds are flowers too, it’s just a matter of perspective.

A dog is worth it and does not cost a fortune, if you treat them like dogs not like substitute children.

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Good summary of the current state in Ukraine:

@Ross812 I followed JCI for years, but never owned it. years ago, it was predominately an automobile supplier (batteries, car seats) and while looking cheap, it’s wasn’t that interesting to me. They have post GFC totally restructured and transformed it by 2019 into an industrial focusing building (fore, AC, control etc) and that’s a much better business. I recently just got aware of this when I read their earnings report (I typically skim though current earning reports especially when the there is move ent in share price and like what I see. it’s not deep value but cheaper than it should trade imo. Anyways, it’s a small position for me still, but I added a smidge this Friday. So far, I have not see any yellow or red flags besides the light guidance for Q1 2024. Let me know what you find out when researching JCI.

This has “Dancing as long as the music is playing vibes”.

I prefer JXN in that space, owned it two times but are currently out. Both BHF and JXN are black boxes in terms of accounting, but generate a lot of cash that’s used for buybacks and dividends in JXN case. They tend to sell off when financial markets get stressed. Another on in th energy space I recently found is IMO (oil sands business from Exxon). They reduced shares from ~850M shares in 2016 to 540M shares now (after the latest issuer bid).

Sold DOCS (today) and ESS (yesterday). Reduced CPT by 1/3. All in tax deferred accounts. I am surprised how much ESS has outperformed peers CPT and MAA.

Ukraine needs an air force. Not since WW1 has any war being won without dominating the air. I think that's the missing piece that Ukraine needs. It tough because Russia still has viable anti aircraft defenses but a win isn't possible without having air presence. Otherwise it's cracking trenches bunkers with stormtroopers artillery / Himars and that's a slow and bloody process.

Selling remainder of POAHY (small loss) $BAC and $GS in my tax deferred account (very nice gains on these just 2 month old positions)

Sold $LHX and $CASH in tax deferred accounts.

Bought a starter in $JCI this AM. The stock seems to be down based on their underwhelming forecast for 2024 but other than that it looks like a very solid industrial around commercial building automation / HVAC at a reasonable price.

Sold the remainder of LUV in my tax deferred accounts and my highest cost basis shares in my taxable accounts. Worked out very satisfactory due to averaging down. I have no idea why it went down so much, nor why it went back up so quickly (lower crude prices?).