Spekulatius

I think the interpretation of “America first” is a bit different and far wider than most people and the MAGA voters thought. The recently published security paper shows the direction which indicates widespread intervention within the sphere of American interest. Venezuela falls into that one, Greenland likely to, Canada as well. Ukraine doesn’t and that’s why it can go to Russia as far as Trump is concerned. Taiwan has the silicon shield going for it , but if that’s gone, I think it can fall to China. Welcome to the world of Neo Imperialism.

Incorrect, the warrant for Maduro was first issued in March 2020 and then Trump was President. https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/nicol-s-maduro-moros-and-14-current-and-former-venezuelan-officials-charged-narco-terrorism

Pretty good analysis of the Venezuela special military operation:

The difference was that OBL was the mastermind behind an attack on US soil killing more than 3000 people. Maduro and Venezuela has done none of this or he would be dead already. This was also a promise that Bush made to the American people and Obama simply fulfilled it. The intervention in Afghanistan was a mistake and we would be better off if no American soldier would ever have set his foot in Afghanistan or Irak for that matter.

So if any foreign nation would remove Trump in a special operation and capture him and his wife and throw them in a detention center (let’s say on a foreign diplomat trip etc) you do not think we would be at war with them? I think Maduro deserves to be removed but we have to be clear about what is done here. Also, one has to be really careful about the end result justifying the means. Thats a slippery slope that lead to many really bad outcomes before.

If you separate the head from the snake, it is probably not going to bite you any more. Do you think the leadership that remains in place would launch nuclear weapons to avenge a dead leader. they probably would bee happy to be rid of him, not because they are necessarily much better, but because he threatens everyone including them. These regimes are run on bribery and fear just like a mobsters. The reason it’s not done is because Putin is part of the right wing leader brotherhood.

You realize that it wasn’t just the USA alone that bombed Libya. Also prior to that an UN Security Council was authorizing force to protect civilians. So you obviously omit significant fact with your statement when you compare the two interventions.

Maduro deserves to be removed. He lost the election and continued to run the country in the ground in a mafia like fashion. I also have a friends from Venezuela and they are happy to see him go. However, I don’t think the Venezuelan happy to become an US colony. How does Trump government want to run the country and what happens if the election outcome is not to Trump’s liking? Also, why the hell does Putin get a free pass? He is freely flying around with his airplane like a world leader on “diplomatic missions” while waging wars but really should be taken down more than anyone else.

Mamdani is still TBD. as far as I know, he has not thrown anyone in a Gulag yet. I think there also has been a lot of media coverage on him and the election.

If Maduro is gone and the regime folds, it will be a very good thing. He deserves a thorough trial, preferably by its own people after they have elections . I guess it’s back to 1960’s interventionism. It’s a good thing if it works but the tail of intended consequences can be long.

Actually betting on the largest market cap companies in an index has been a suckers bet because history shows that the largest business don’t tend to stay the largest.

WU has been a secular loser for a few years. GPN, PYPL, FOUR are still growing organically, so they are not the same situation. As long as they have some growth and stable margins, they should do OK. COF is a different business and has credit risk. It’s a CC company with a bank attached.

Why do they hate it? I am a user who doesn’t. The alternatives I came across as a user were worse (SAP modules). Anyways, the stock is cheap if you look at NonGaap numbers. It’s a category leader growing low to mid teens and I think they can do so for quite some time while also improving margins. For comparison, WDAY trades at ~EV/ 5x revenues with 75% and growing gross margins compared to ROP at 6.7x with less organic gross (relying on acquisitions to grow). So, I think it’s cheaper than ROP.

There is now more competition with exchanges because the electronic nature makes it easier to have multiple exchange coexisting compared to when they were open outcry etc. Also in the same vein, transaction cost go towards zero, so the exchanges need to offer value added services or keep revenue growing. They are still food business but not as good than 25+ year ago.

Added to WDAY, RYAN, RELY and SDXAY (Sodexo).

I bought a bit of BOLSAA recently. Traded at a PE of 10 but the Mexican stock is not exactly Speedy Gonzales.

Not really. You can open carry a gun in NC without permit. For concealed carry in NC you need a permit and to get a permit you need to pass mandatory safety training. In CA, you need to pass a safety training course to acquire a gun. Concealed carry permits are very hard to get there. I think NH is another state that does not require training for open carry permits.

NYC is not representative in terms of both salaries paid, as well the living cost. I know some some teachers leave NC because salaries for teachers are miserable here. Starting salaries are around $40K and change but it depends a bit on location.

I think Canada should pouch some H1B talent. I think the wheel are turning against immigration as well and Canada had more than enough based on total numbers, but H1B talent is one of the most productive forms of immigration and those H1B folks stranded in the USA surely look for alternatives.

I think this is a rare exception though. Most American would never leave the USA. Politics is not a decide factor for most.

Both are great but Nancy seem more intimate, smaller and has a more coherent architecture.

You have to ask yourself if the US is really subsidizing the rest of the world just plain paying too much. if 200+ countries in the world are paying much less than the US and us spending on health care (not just drugs) stocks out like a sore thumb, than maybe so something is wrong with the US system, not the rest of the world. Many drugs are actually invented elsewhere but drug companies run the trials in the US because they know that the big money can be made here, once they get approvals. I don’t think medical progress would collapse if the drugs in the US would be as cheap than they are in Europe or Japan. Tort reform would also go among way, the cost of lawsuits US for anything related to medical is far higher than anywhere else in the world.

I think European defense spending has diminished because their was no perception of threat. US defense spending has diminshed too for the same reason , especially regarding Europe by the way. Look at how much US troops were draw, down from Europe. US presence in Europe in 1990 (year one past Cold War) was 250,000 soldiers, and it’s now ~35,000 in 2025. So the reduction in defense spending in Europe has not been happening in isolation and has only recently reversed.

All the techs stocks are included in FNDB but more according to their economic weight, not the market cap weight. Tesla for example is not in the top 10 because it has minuscule profits and the market cap is out of sync with its economic weight. There are problems with either approach but I think the economic weight approach does make sense if you think that market valuations are out of whack for a large segment of the market.

How do you partner with a country that arguable has made it policy to screw all other countries as hard as possible? How do you make a deal with Trump without coming out as a sucker? Canada is too healthy tied to the USA economically as is and needs to diversify away over time. This does not mean to cut economic ties with the USA but it does mean to look at the overall picture and try to find more trading partners and deepened ties with existing ones as much as possible. The alternative is to become the 51st and 52nd states but I don’t think this is what Canadians want.