Spekulatius

On AJG- I found this nugget regarding the AP acquisition from their recent special call. Below is what Douglas Howell said. If correct, they acquired this business for 10x EBITDA Post synergies :

Added to GTLB yesterday. the company met or slightly exceeded earnings but it wasn’t enough apparently. Still 25% topline growth is not bad and profit metrics are improving. I don’t think appointing a CFO with Stitchfix credentials have helped the stock either.

People are checking out new toys and then they go into the bin. However this neither proves nor disproves the AI thesis as far as cases like CSU is concerned. For a company like CSU it will take years until we see an impact either positive or negative and possibly both to some extend.

And here we are:

I think one thing that should be totally clear is that the US is basically gone from NATO. The Trump administration basically excused itself and even suggested to mediate between NATO and Russia amongst other things. Quite frankly, the US should just leave NATO but I think the way it shakes out is that the corpse stays intact and the Europeans wills start their own defense partnership out of necessity, perhaps with Canada as well. Japan and Taiwan better watch out because the US is not a credible defense partner any more as they will sell out any ally as they see it fit.

Yep, I recommend for anyone who believes brokers get disintermediated easily to shop their homeowner insurance themselves for a small taste. It can be done but you spent countless hours to get a deal or perhaps not. I just have my broker do a runaround because the insurance co I have car insurance with would not insure a home with 3 tab roofs last year. Now I got confirmation that they changed this for existing customers so that saves me a few bucks. I had another broker set to quote me a package of homeowners , Car and a umbrella and he guaranteed me it would be cheaper than my existing package after looking at my package ( I sent him my docs ) except when it was all said and done, it was not. The list goes on and on. And this is with simples case like homeowners and car insurance with no claims for many years whatsoever. Now throw a more complex case with a business with employees, some prior claims and what not and there are a myriad combinations. Whoever thinks that a few programmers with some AI skills can pulls this off easily has not thought this through.

Small add to Unidata ($UD.MI) on forecast revision yesterday Today a starter in BZL insurance Small add to AJG because I like the stock

Well I am not famous but I owned some too since late 2020. I sold most on the way up but not all, then added back before the fall (and some more after). I think right now it’s a good value if you have an iron stomach. I think I will flip some for tax loss sales later this year.

Finally some meaningful insider buys for $FI Fiserv. Purchases from the GC and the CFO are the most meaningful since they are the most pessimistic people in management, imo.

Reduced $ABEV a little.

I paid north of 25c/ kWh in MA for power which is not far off from what @John Hjorth seems to be paying. So YMMV. Also US homes are way less energy efficient , especially 3000-4000 sqft McMansions. Add to this the much harsher winters in the US and $800/ month heating and power bill quickly becomes reality.

I agree Middlefart sounds bad.

Pretty good essay why Putin will not stop the war: https://elvirabary.com/why-putin-cant-stop-the-war/

Pluribus is great TV: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt22202452/

This seems to be the current consensus but that’s partly because people take what OpenAi states as a gospel. Now we also look at far more efficient AI stacks (Gemini, Deepseek variants ) which also means much lower power consumption. So the assumption about power consumption from AI based on this linear thinking are possibly way too high.

The phrase “treated too harshly” has been used before by Trump, mostly for rich criminals . I think it’s code for “he pays us off and gets an out of jail card for that”

Not fake news: https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/juan-orlando-hernandez-former-president-honduras-sentenced-45-years-prison-conspiring AI Overview Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted of cocainetrafficking, not specifically heroin, in March 2024. He was sentenced to 45 years in U.S. federal prison in June 2024 for his role in a large-scale drug and weapons conspiracy. Key Details Crime: Hernández was found guilty of three counts related to conspiring to import cocaine into the U.S. and related weapons charges. Role: Prosecutors successfully argued that, during his two terms as president (2014-2022), he used his position and the country's military and national police to operate Honduras as a "narco-state" and facilitate the movement of hundreds of tons of cocaine from South America to the United States. Bribes: He was accused of accepting millions of dollars in bribes from major drug traffickers, including a payment from the notorious Mexican drug lord Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán. Brother's Involvement: His brother, former Honduran Congressman Tony Hernández, was also convicted of drug trafficking and sentenced to life in prison in 2021. Status: Hernández was extradited to the U.S. in April 2022 and is currently incarcerated at the United States Penitentiary, Hazelton.

Happy Thanksgiving :

The plan is being revised .This is likely what happens next:

Russia complaining about the leak means it’s genuine. Witkoff telling the Russians how to pitch the document to Trump is something else. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2025/11/26/kremlin-calls-foul-on-leaked-witkoff-call-00669863

Looks like Alibaba, BYD etc could get blacklisted. then you can’t buy these stocks any more in US accounts: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4526331-pentagon-said-to-have-named-alibaba-baidu-and-byd-for-inclusion-in-us-cmc-list

?? The Netflix regular subscription had no adds and Amazon deliver got faster and faster for us. I have moved several times , last time last year and in all locations, Amazon just got faster with their deliveries.

The opposite from shared economics also exists and this is an example: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2025/05/14/atrium-health-executives-get-hefty-pay-raises-amid-record-revenues/ The CEO salary of this non profit health care group is larger than ELV.

$PSA is not a fat pitch, but it’s a reasonable value here. They are the best managed of the self storage Reits , low leverage and they have the lowest overhead. You get about a 6-6.5% cash yield as a shareholder which I think will be growing over time. It‘s good for IRA accounts f you want some blast that appreciates and provides some cash income. I have bought some recently in my IRA account.