Spekulatius

Russia complaining about the leak means it’s genuine. Witkoff telling the Russians how to pitch the document to Trump is something else. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2025/11/26/kremlin-calls-foul-on-leaked-witkoff-call-00669863

Looks like Alibaba, BYD etc could get blacklisted. then you can’t buy these stocks any more in US accounts: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4526331-pentagon-said-to-have-named-alibaba-baidu-and-byd-for-inclusion-in-us-cmc-list

?? The Netflix regular subscription had no adds and Amazon deliver got faster and faster for us. I have moved several times , last time last year and in all locations, Amazon just got faster with their deliveries.

The opposite from shared economics also exists and this is an example: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2025/05/14/atrium-health-executives-get-hefty-pay-raises-amid-record-revenues/ The CEO salary of this non profit health care group is larger than ELV.

$PSA is not a fat pitch, but it’s a reasonable value here. They are the best managed of the self storage Reits , low leverage and they have the lowest overhead. You get about a 6-6.5% cash yield as a shareholder which I think will be growing over time. It‘s good for IRA accounts f you want some blast that appreciates and provides some cash income. I have bought some recently in my IRA account.

Die Deutschen kommen:

Chilling with Mark Knopfler tunes:

Bought a bit of the spinoff (from Hamee 3134) that Rich is pitching (pre spinoff). The newco is NE Corp 441A and if the estimates are correct they are going to make ~59 Yen in earnings next year. The business seems mature with slow (high single digit ) topline growth.This is an ecommerce SAAS business (simplifying e-commerce across several outlets for vendors).

Adding to $WDAY. Down ~10% on earnings, no idea why. Maybe the beat was too narrow. Anyways, I like it at current price around $210.

They didn’t copy Singapore because having control and power is more important to the CCP than wealth or growth. I bet Xi does not regret the tech crackdown at all. Taiwan is an ideological issue for them and since Xi as a neo Maoist is invested in his ideology (it’s the foundation of the CCP’s power after all) the issue is not going away away as long as he or other hardliners are in power..

How do you sell meds for “restless leg syndrome“ without marketing? Banning DTC drug advertising will hit the ad market badly. FWIW, I do think it’s a good idea.

Exactly.

Well Putin may not care but at some point he will run out of men, material and money. He probably can outlast Ukraine, but there won’t be much left once he is done in 5 years or so to attack anybody else. The war of attrition isn’t good for him and neither for Ukraine. If western weapon supply can make the war more costly for the Russians in terms of losses, it’s a win for Europe.

Actually the countries in Europe funding Russia with oil purchases are mostly Trump right wing buddies from Hungary and Slowakia. The rest stopped buying Russian oil. Russia is losing about 1000 soldiers due to casualties every day.

Yeah, China also treated the Japanese delegation like second class emissaries. This is obviously done to cater to their domestic audience. I think it’s also obvious that Takaichi lacks experience.

Yeah the data center Capex alone is 1-1.5% of the US GDP currently. Bigger then the telecom bubble in 2000. If it’s not money well spent look out below for our economy.

The AI used here seem more like the old fashioned machine learning (Xaira) than LLM. LLM’s may be useful for drug submission but the hallucinations intrinsic in LLM may be a huge obstacle here. I think Incyte about 25 years ago also claimed the same thing about drug discovery but maybe this time the time is right. $1B in funding for a preclinical company is a lot of money.

Yes, Vikings were living asset light and always on the move. When they needed something, they just raided it and disappeared into the vastness of the oceans before the situation became untenable due to pushback from the locals. Make sure you have a glorious death and go to Valhalla’s before dying of old age. Maybe there is even an investing angle to this

Yes, he is totally wrong about the PE as it counts one time earnings. The adjusted PE is more 12.5x in line with some other no /low growth consumer brands. You need to check the work yourself if read a pitch from a guy with 2 years of experience and a $20k account who just started his substack.

Wasn’t BTI a fallen knife at that point early this year also?

Simple, Israel had tremendous success with their strikes on Iran so he decided to be part of the action and co tribute what Israel could not - the bunker buster. This was at very limited risk for the USA. He thinks Israel’s are the winners. He regards Ukraine as the loser and Russia as a winner in this conflict . He said this years ago . He does not like backing a loser in his eyes, that’s why he isn’t backing Ukraine and gravitating towards Russia. Putin and Trump are aligned in terms of how they believe in Power rather than any underlying moral framework. The problem with that is that Autocrats tend to leave nothing durable behind.

I think the change in USD/CDN exchange rate explains part (but not all of it). The USD/CDN exchange rate has changed by about 30% over the last 10 years.

Note that the implication is also that NATO ceases to exist. Trump’s language that he mediates between NATO and Russia , calls the shots if security guarantees get enacted (without the US being part of those ) makes it clear that he does not see the USA as part of NATO which is really the takeaway for the Europeans. It’s sort of a typical Trump proposal with ridiculous ask and giving nothing.

Putin is not going to accept anything until it meet all this goals which means that the whole war is going to continue. Trump may not have all that much leverage over Ukraine. Sure, the intelligence sharing is important but the location of refineries and oil pipelines is well known - you can pull it from Google maps. So they can continues to destroy those. The weapons are nowadays paid for by Europeans so if US stops deliveries, then The US defense contractors will lose some business and the Europeans can eventually sell more. So for investing, I think some US defense contractors may lose some business and European or Korean defense companies probably will gain business. Note that this will probably also hurt the US defense industries export business long term.

Looks like the peace plan is a Russian document (more or less) that is presented by the US state department. Perhaps not a surprise, Vlad Vexler and others noted that the writing sounded like Russian phrases translated into English. So the clown show continues.