no_free_lunch

Thank you Phoenix , cigarbutt for your loss estimates. I happened to see that there are double digit price increases on home insurance in Florida. Could insurance industry act rationally and simply raise rates to recapture the loss?

I went through bits of it. Certainly the most extensive BRK breakdown I have ever seen. For those not inclined to wade through it he sees BRK at a meaningful discount to IV. I saw DIS and I saw just a wee little bit about BRK, otherwise do we know their portfolio?

How many pages are there in the Valeant thread. :)

T (as in AT&T) 7% dividend, stock buybacks, debt paydown, trading for somewhere around 8-9x fcf. Yes the business is stagnant but they own HBO max and that is actually growing fast. To tie to current trends, it is an inflation resistant investment.

They sold a small stake in digit at year end so it's not unprecedented. I think it's in part to take profit but also to provide a valuation point. With farmers edge they are only ipoing $100m, why not a similar float for digit? It's more to highlight the value than to raise capital. I could be totally wrong here, but it seems to fit.

I know nothing of boat rocker. Anyone have a sense for the value there? I hope he IPOs digit in the US. It can be marketed as the India version of lemonade. I have ffh at somewhere around $540 US or $675 CAD. If it can just move to book, it historically has traded around there or even at a premium, it's still over 30% upside. Plus any value that accrues due to insurance earnings. Plus any future gains from portfolio. It will take a few quarters or more if performance to rerate but it's very possible. Not so crazy to see it moving up 40 to 60% over the next year or two. On BB note that it's still a double from year end. As in the past 6 weeks. Yes it's discouraging they couldn't monetize but they are doing ok.

Very possible but oddly enough it may require high tech valuations to continue. Digit, farmers edge, blackberry plus their other tech startups all have some real potential. If the hard market stays um hard, I could see a significant rerating. It's really out of our hands but I see a double as a distinct possibility and I could see it in 3 years even. Maybe, maybe even within 2 years. I like that even if that doesn't pan out you are not paying up and downside seems reasonable. My main focus with ffh is the very high, imo, chance of a 20%+ move over the next 6 months.

I keep thinking that there is this other company, LMND, with $100m in sales and 50% growth it has a market cap of $8B. LMND is overpriced but it could still pull on digits valuation.

I don't know what it's worth but I don't see farmers edge as the debacle many here do. They are growing 60% a year and in the last year they managed to keep most of their expenses static. They could hit FCF neutral in 2 to 3 years. At that point profits kick in. If they are growing 40%, breakeven FCF then it actually could be a very valuable asset. This is tech , these companies have horrible income statements at the beginning, it's about scale. Once you are hooked in you have cross sell opportunities. Th carbon market in particular is growing FAST. This will be a big part of the hype and could be a mammoth market. I'm not a bull, wouldn't buy it but I could see it doing well.

More FFH.TO. It went from a 1% to 10% position over past few weeks. It is getting kind of stupid now but maybe I am missing something. There are underlying securities are doing so well, even BB while down from the highs is more than a double from where it was last time book was reported. Even if they did 0 hedging on BB FFH is cheap cheap cheap.

On Lynch, I read the book and thought it was a great read but yes you step back and it is a bit hard to apply. I don't have a link but I read that in the 80's and 90's it was LEGAL and common practice for companies to pre release their earnings to select mutual fund managers. I also read that lynch was part of that intake (just reporting what I saw). Could be a no so insignificant part of the alpha.

I don't have a subscription. Can someone post a summary?

Reddit and WSB are not behind it. If you go to their site , every third article says it's a scan, if you want to buy silver the ticker is GME. If you want to buy silver, go for it. Maybe it's a good investment, great However it's not true that there is this Reddit crowd doing so which is what the article is saying. Yes there are write ups about silver but it didn't gain momentum. Someone else is behind this.

Reddit WSB is saying that silver squeeze is a false narrative spread by someone trying to distract from GME. I would not buy silver hoping retail is behind you.

I don't like that politics showed up and disappeared all around the us election. We are "allowed" to talk politics when the moderator decides it's appropriate. That itself is a huge political statement. For now, I am out too. Later y'all.

Dear Prem, Please sell all BB holdings. See reddit/wsb if you are looking for a buyer. Thanks, Exuberant FAIRFAX shareholder

Where did the 47m shares of BB cone from? I had it at over 60m based on the reported value of the BB stake in the 2019 AR.

Brooklyn investor has an interesting and well written take on the bubble. Tldr high valuations can persist for extended periods and there are sections of the market that should do ok regardless of what happens. http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2021/01/happy-new-year-bubble-yet.html?m=1

I don't know blackberry but with these platforms it's more than just the initial revenue. There will be an app store, I wonder how that revenue split would work between auto, Amazon, blackberry. The app store will be a way to target subscription revenue as well. It's one way I can see the numbers making sense. It is also possible that $20 per car number does go up as it is guaranteed there will be more and more sensors. For safety if nothing else. Just a question can blackberry grab proportional revenue? I do think costs will be higher than we would like. Strong traditional earnings may not emerge even if things go well. However if it pans out there is a very real possibility of a buyout. While we may not agree with tech valuations they do provide these companies with options to purchase lower priced rivals or bolt ons and still have the numbers make sense to investors. I still feel ffh is the way to go on this. If it falls who cares it wasn't priced in. If it success not only does nav go up but it could help ffh rerate. Between this and digit I at least have some hope. If the covid vaccine works I could see ATCO and fih moving up as well. I don't see enormous downside and yet I have a stock that could, with equity appreciation and rerating be a double.

Berkshire has a number of wholly owned subsidiaries that are not publicly listed. if they were they would trade relative to earnings not book value. As such it may not be fair to compare them other conglomerates. Another way to look at it, imagine if Berk had bought apple outright. They would list it at book, purchase price, and you would only see gains to book. However I suspect the stock price of apple has outgrown the book value increase of the same company. So by owning the equity shares their "book" has gone up more than if they had owned the same company consolidated on their balance sheet. Hence why buffet believes true book is some multiple of the reported value. I am just echoing above a discussion I read here years ago. Essentially it is complicated and not all book values are the same.

You have already started. Just work through the threads and ARs.

I think the best way to invest in blackberry is via ffh. At these level, the surge in BB stock is in no way priced in. You are getting the upside from the past 4 months for free and in addition you have an option should it go higher.

In one of the more recent articles on Digit insurance they had mentioned how they were expanding to build out an api to allow other companies to use their infrastructure. Does anyone have any more insight into what that means? It's all very preliminary but that would have huge potential if they can become some type of cloud provider in addition to their core insurance business.

Buying ffh. It's a big change for me. I haven't owned more than a small amount in years. It appears quite cheap relative to the rest of the market. It is selling at less than 90% of Sept 30 book value. Yet with digit and blackberry and other subs you still have this ability to participate in a rally. I still very much question BB but as I said, even using Sept 30 prices FFH is cheap.

Thank you for the feedback everyone. I will capitalize on this. :) I just wanted to see if there is some announcement I missed that pushed it down.