Luke

If Ai results in a productivity miracle and a significant increase in automatization, the economy will need consumers who are able to buy the surplus of produced goods and services funneled by that growth. If the consumer is jobless and without money, nobody will buy the surplus and AI will not be implemented as much as the market hopes. So its a key question of how we can increase the consumers wealth while he is losing his job, higher taxation as @mattee2264 pointed out is the only way i see out of this scenario. In the end everybody would win in that case, we will have way more time, work less, have more products than we could imagine etc. But what are good assets to own in that case? With that turbocharge of growth we will likely also see a huge increase in competition in markets because monopolies wont help with growth, id not like to own the fabless chip producers for a 10 year period, i really cant say if the game will be the same as it is today. I think things like micron, tsmc, asml, railroads, amazon/ high capex infrastructure businesses will do very well in that case. Commodities might also do surprisingly well, who knows how less the cycles will there be if AI gets really implemented in business planning...especially considering the underinvestment and the following increase in demand...maybe with automatization and AI the economy will start to grow a lot more predictable with automatization. In any case, one would want to be an owner of high quality wide moat businesses most likely at reasonable prices, nothing changes here IMO

At which price would you say is bitcoin a bubble? 100k? 1m? Or would you repeat the same arguments when it hits 1m, 10m etc And why would it be a bubble at 200k and not at 50k? Also, your next door grandma losing -50% of her money to bitcoiners after many start to sell and buy real assets, is that productive? Or is it something you then would call a "productive wealth transfer"? Why is it more productive for you to have her money than her having her money? Thanks!

Why would only the FANG stocks be a fing life raft? Why should only "technology" thrive in a world of increased automatization? The technology has to be built with matter, steel etc. If the robots hypercharge GDP worldwide then 4x earnings miners will do well and probably even better than 35x technology companies.

I worked in the industry and can only point out how RIDICULOUS the prices increased in that sector, everything became more expensive, wood, labor, shipping. I want to buy a Bechstein piano but i am not buying now because prices are 30-40% higher than pre covid and i simply do not see it, waiting to buy something used.

Also the whole crew, its just great if people come together and make good music, life is worth living

Listen to 2:58, pretty nice voice and just a great song

Bought two things: HCC NYSE and PNP TSE

Guys, when your parents ask you if they should invest in bitcoin now, it's time to sell and exit the trip to Jerusalem before no chairs are left anymore!

Bitcoin peak? Delusion levels at the maximum?

Yeeeeppp, it is very suspicious Not a single post in 15 years and then when MW is short a thread gets created in Fairfaxes biggest online board?

This one is also suspicious, account created in 2009, 0 posts before the MW short report and then he is the first one to open a thread about it and post the short report.... Hello MW?

Haha, i still remember getting the message by Interactive Brokers FFH -10% and then saw the news about the short report, not gonna lie, it made me quite uneasy BUT there are undeniable fundamentals even if book value has some distortions (obviously the distortions pointed out by MW were misleading). BUT on first glance it induced some stress, especially considering it was 72 pages and a lot of mumbo jumbo too. Then on top came the change in margin requirements for FFH positions by IB so yeah, MW hoped there is some panic selling which created a -12% drop. I hope for him he sold immediately after that.

yeah exactly!

Time to go short Muddy Waters? XD

Like?

My dad called me this morning that his GF sold some of her crypto and bought Berkshire due to the run...tells you a lot about the market folks

i saw that one too...what a bet and what a reward...always remember folks, for everyone of these is a guy with the opposite, 0 USD in his account and severe depression

It shocked me when i sent some screenshots of a rather difficult analysis SPSS output into the program and i received such a detailed correct write up...wtf man...these tools are so powerful.

I have used this extensively and it's excellent. You can choose between several language models, i am using GPT 4, its very precise, i can put data outputs in it and have it put out competent summaries, saving me tons of time. I can simply screenshot SPSS outputs as an example and it gives me very good write ups within a couple of seconds that are accurate most often...20 USD a month is a steal for the time saver it is. And for other questions it gives me a better output than what google gives me...perplexity ai seriously replaced a significant part of my google searches.

We should be above 1% of FFH for now!

Always a great read...!

USD at current valuation

Counts too, opt in for the total amount.

Just go for 100k then, didnt want to push the options, should only be a gross estimate

So far at 0.1% of the company! I guess its important to factor in outside guests of the board who could add significiant sums on top compared to the very active members here.