Luke

Its the year of the dragon folks, Xi aims to beat SP 500 this year...;-)

Id ALWAYS chose a world ETF with the whole world sorted by market capitalization. Especially over longterm things can change and you still own 60%+ US in a global index anyways

Will a coal stock that makes 20% a year as cashflow yield for 5 years and buys back their stock beat microsoft? Very likely but you have the risk of commodity cycles and that it is not a great business. But small caps can easily beat large caps here and MAG 7 are a massive crowded trade right now.

Take Microsoft as an example. Market cap: 3 Trillion Earnings: 77b Last 5 year Sales growth: 13.7% PE multiple: 39x So if you have 13.7% sales growth the next 5 years and margin+PE multiple stays stable you will get 13.7% return+1% dividend+1% buybacks-->15.7% annualized return. IF the multiple stays stable. Is 2.5% earnings yield a fair valuation considering interest rates and the quality of the business? In the current environment no, but if rates go to 2% again then maybe it's fair. If they have an increase in sales growth due to AI or whatever and they average 20% sales growth the next 5 years+stable multiple your returns will be great. If they have 10% sales growth for 5 years and the multiple readjusts for whatever reason to 25x you will make maybe a 5-10% return in 5 years. Does Microsoft have a margin of safety or is cheap? NO Is it a great business? YES

Looking forward to the opinion of the board!

Great music! What a voice and passion.

Anybody an opinion on which one of the japan bets is the highest quality one? Thinking of buying one of them and using IB margin. Currently doing DD into them!

Ok, I still find some value in China but i am already very overweight, and yeah then cloning pabrai with coal...still i find it hard to find sth where i could put fairfax money where it is AS well invested as with FFH

To own more shares in a company that I think will outperform the interest paid on the borrowed money. You will get more margin room if you have a more diversified portfolio and your risk of a margin call is less because not everything will fall as much together. Holding 20-30% margin with MAG 7 is much safer than having 30% margin with commodity stocks where a huge drop is way more likely. It works against you but as long as you dont get margin called you can still ride the wave up again and have a margin position over 5 years+. Practicing with it just with small amounts and getting a feel for it is a good exercise. I can only speak about IB but you have one big problem that is the unpredictable increase of margin requirement during volatile times. They can up the margin requirements by an unknown amount like 30% and if your excess liquidity is too low at that point you will get margin called. Thats why keeping margin to 10-20% is quite safe but of course depends on your other holdings and how deep they will fall if shit hits the fan. There is this tiny percentage of a once in a 100 year event where the market drops so hard that even with 10-20% margin you will get a call but It's very unlikely. I am also talking about portfolio margin here which is way better than REG T margin which id never use.

IMO Fairfax looks great from current valuation over next 10 years and i cant find much that looks as good, in what are you investing the proceeds?

In what would that person invest the proceeds, what businesses at this kind of quality and reasonable prices can one find? Everything else is expensive now...

Is a mistake honestly! Fairfax is more than half of my portfolio now and i wont even think about trimming at current valuation

On what does FFH inclusion in the TSX 60 depend?

Makes sense to me!

Currently 1.2 leveraged, majority in China and Nintendo. How much leverage do you use and how much do you think can be held comfortably? Cheers!

Yeah exactly, I was waiting for it yesterday, on my second broker it already arrived but at IB it was there when I woke up this morning

Putting my Fairfax Dividend to work: Put two buy orders in for CEIX @NYSE and JOE @NYSE

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3249786/chinas-communist-party-vows-take-new-and-old-challenges-peoples-daily-article-based-xi-jinpings?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage With the words of Xi: "Thursday’s article said the Chinese Communist Party must draw painful lessons from many other “large parties and parties with a long history” that had failed, but did not offer any specific examples. “They were once full of vigour and vitality, but some have fallen apart or disappeared, some have weakened and are approaching their end, while some are in deep trouble. These are very regrettable and thought provoking [lessons],” it said." Brian Wong, assistant professor of philosophy at the University of Hong Kong, cited Beijing’s tracking of communist powers around the world. Beijing had kept a watchful eye on events such as the decline and fall of the Soviet Union, the changes in Eastern Europe, and the “falling apart” of revolutionary parties, such as in Cambodia, Wong said. “On the other hand, Beijing also recognises that the socioeconomic inequalities giving rise to great instability in advanced liberal democracies point towards the need to redress these inequalities [in communist states] and [enforce] internal party discipline.” China’s Communist Party vows to take on ‘new and old challenges’ in People’s Daily article based on Xi Jinping’s speech

Id expect from my government that they dont destroy my equity I own in other countries. Sanctions never helped, all it did drive Russia further away, permanent resource loss for Europe that desperately depended on them, right into the arms of china that used the opportunity perfectly.

Well said, nobody in Russia stole the shares, the US randomly banned selected Russian billionaires, stole some of their assets and blocked shareholders from having access to their rightly owned shares. Everybody blaming russia but they did nothing here haha

“The economy is the body, and finance is the blood. The two coexist and prosper together,” its commentary said on Wednesday. Earlier this week, Beijing made moves to improve market sentiment, with Premier Li Qiang pledging increased support for capital markets at a State Council meeting on Monday. The China Securities Regulatory Commission said on Tuesday that it would introduce more long-term institutional investors and avoid releasing policies that could dampen market expectations. https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3249606/china-cut-banks-reserve-requirement-ratio-set-inject-1-trillion-yuan-market?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3249635/german-firms-plan-increase-china-investment-next-2-years-despite-reality-check-2023?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage German firms plan to increase China investment in next 2 years despite ‘reality check’ in 2023

Its nicer than my house lol

Ironically, Unions where THE origin of capitalism in the UK where we had the industrial revolution, investing into technology to replace more expensive labour drove innovation and ignited the flame for capitalism as we know it today. No country is the same and no "capitalism" is therefore the same, since every country lives within a state capitalist system on this planet. Common prosperity is the same word as "build back better". It is based on scientific research that high inequality in salaries and how wealth is divided leads to worse GDP growth, worsening social climate etc I said it before, the problem in china was not the government but greedy gambling private investors that overleveraged their RE companies to heaven, using pre sales from projects to fund other projects and invest the money into other industries. It was a bubble by greedy investors and the CCP thankfully intervened and put regulation in it. Sad for the people that had to deal with our "free market" RE investors...thats why we have regulation in capitalism and thats why there is a government that puts up rules in markets so the worst tendencies of capitalism get blocked. How many investors have had their money confiscated in china here? The stock market is visible to the public, the earnings are real, the dividends are real, if you take a tiny substrata of cases where people lost money due to regulation, you should have a look into the US IPO market and rethink about Crypto, Bankman-Fried, FTX and Co. The trust you speak of is unjustified to investors, why should private business be immune to regulation? The alphabet annual report reads similiar to tencent risk section. They too can get regulated but probably wont because nobody cares in that government. People are used to 0 regulation and the SP 500 climbing higher and higher since a decade. Yes, i agree they need a stimulus. The value lies in the very very cheap earnings multiple that of course can get a lot cheaper as always.