Luke

I find "no moat" also quite undifferentiated. Yes, opening a burger restaurant next door is a very small to no moat. But a globally scaled insurance company does have a moat, they have trust of consumers, they spend significant amounts on advertising to preserve the trust, with scale one can compete on the price front too. Its not a wide moat but its also not NO moat...

HAHA! Love his description of the company as "the no moat company". A disgrace to watsa and Co.

I didnt hear any goddammit. I think they where right to stop giving him any space. He is a fool and the reaction from watsa was good. Get lost MW!

I was in the call at last, what a shitshow for MW, desperate question and especially ugly when he pushed for "further" details above what is required to insinuate any problems...sleezy guy...

Let us know any interesting developments, cant dial in right now but want to

Interesting, what do you see here? I found it quite expensive at first glance, high capex. What's your thesis?

Yeah...but do you know what they mean? 100% loss of top 3 positions or -50% loss of top 3 positions, confusing, i have to play with risk navigator later

Not 100% sure, i understood it as a -50% loss in the top 3 stocks and not a 100% loss. Otherwise i think its likely that IB will liquidate and cover my positions on margin although i have HUGE excess liquidity which is kind of ridiculous and would be the end of me using Margin. Anybody else here knows more? This is the complete message: Dear Client, In light of the current trading environment, Interactive Brokers will being phasing in changes to the margin requirement for accounts that hold a concentrated position in FFH:TSE (Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd). The requirement will work as follows: An alternative stress test will be considered following the margin calculation currently in place, with the greater of the two becoming the active requirement. FFH:TSE stock and its derivatives will be subject to a stress test that simulates a price change in the underlying stock of -50% and +50%. The aggregate projected loss of the top three concentrated stocks (and their derivatives) will be compared to what would otherwise be the aggregate portfolio margin requirement, and the greater of the two will be the margin requirement for the portfolio. The increase will be phased in over a series of daily increments beginning after the New York close on February 9, 2024 and continuing through trade date February 12, 2024. Based upon a recent review of your account, the increase is projected to result in a margin deficiency of . Please take the necessary steps to ensure margin compliance. An account that is margin deficient becomes subject to forced liquidations. Consistent with our stated policy, accounts that are unable to carry a position under this new margin requirement are subject to liquidations to bring the account into margin compliance. Note that the "." At "resulting in a margin deficiency is just an empty point that i interpreted in no margin deficiency in my account. Not sure though.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3251590/eus-plans-tougher-china-stance-risk-coming-rails-splits-emerge-multiple-issues?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/02/06/msci-china-is-priced-like-an-entire-soe-goldman-sachs.html MSCI China is priced like ‘an entire state-owned enterprise’: Goldman Sachs https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/14/goldman-sachs-picks-china-stocks-even-if-japans-lost-decades-repeat.html Goldman Sachs says these China stocks can win even if there’s a repeat of Japan’s lost decades

Done

Would appreciate a screenshot of the full article, not a subscriber, thanks @Haryana in advance!

IB reacting to the volatility of FFH:

+1

Its hard to hold chinese positions due to the horrible sentiment and bleak outlook/capitulation. I also get doubts sometimes and need some inner dialogue to maintain being bullish but its hard. It speaks for the distress and dislocation in the market.

"After our intense research and FORENSIC accounting (LOL)" we discovered HUGE problems yadda yadda yadda....then lots of technical words, make it confusing and long with many numbers so investor is overwhelmed and rethinks himself...they really are a sad pathetic ghost. Also how they have to make these huge announcements...WE ARE SHORT!!!! Just short in disguise, id respect that but not with a big parade, gaslighting and deceptive fireworks

I mean really, how ridiculous is the short thesis considering the cash coming in but i guess he is desperate. Nvidia shorts not working...

Fun times, IMO short report misses the forest for the trees...market does seem to be a bit concerned though, short sellers really are the sleaziest of em all...remember the PDD report that came out...they want to create fear and panic and suck the blood out of unknowing investors. Especially if the short thesis is just weak as it is here...

Damn

This was on my shrine luck letter at a temple in japan today, added to my Mitsubishi position this morning

Bought some Mitsubishi Corp on cheap margin, having buffett as largest owner while the company still trading cheap is fine for me

Its the year of the dragon folks, Xi aims to beat SP 500 this year...;-)

Id ALWAYS chose a world ETF with the whole world sorted by market capitalization. Especially over longterm things can change and you still own 60%+ US in a global index anyways

Will a coal stock that makes 20% a year as cashflow yield for 5 years and buys back their stock beat microsoft? Very likely but you have the risk of commodity cycles and that it is not a great business. But small caps can easily beat large caps here and MAG 7 are a massive crowded trade right now.

Take Microsoft as an example. Market cap: 3 Trillion Earnings: 77b Last 5 year Sales growth: 13.7% PE multiple: 39x So if you have 13.7% sales growth the next 5 years and margin+PE multiple stays stable you will get 13.7% return+1% dividend+1% buybacks-->15.7% annualized return. IF the multiple stays stable. Is 2.5% earnings yield a fair valuation considering interest rates and the quality of the business? In the current environment no, but if rates go to 2% again then maybe it's fair. If they have an increase in sales growth due to AI or whatever and they average 20% sales growth the next 5 years+stable multiple your returns will be great. If they have 10% sales growth for 5 years and the multiple readjusts for whatever reason to 25x you will make maybe a 5-10% return in 5 years. Does Microsoft have a margin of safety or is cheap? NO Is it a great business? YES