Luke

Interesting, my worry with intel is that they won't be competitive enough in the foundry business cost wise and experience wise, have lagged in CPU/GPU performance and lost data center revenue etc...what do you see here?

As i said stock up 10% after hours

I say stock will move up 10% after hours

Haha incredible, 100% stock will go up on even 10% growth

Haha incredible

We have got to appreciate how far china has come the last 20 years and extrapolate how much governance will likely improve in the next 20 years. I think, looking at their numbers and the development, things will look a lot better in the future. Naspers and Bekker had balls to invest 32m 20 years ago, it was a lot worse and people would have probably screamed similar things as they do today. Meanwhile that stake more than 1000x in that period Buy quality in China if you buy at all, even Damodaran says so:

@blakehampton That's the beauty of emerging markets, cheap prices and more risky governance. If you dont want that, feel free to pay up for similar quality with prices more than double+less growth in your local country in the west.

Has been said in the thread before, ultimately we should be very happy about the fact that the 2T crypto market is capital thats not chasing high quality real assets which leaves them cheaper for us! I am hoping that this bubble gets juiced more, that people leave BRK for cryptocoins so i can buy more

So a city with 60k citizens who implemented some function of paying with bitcoin (questionable how many switched to using that currency considering the swiss frank is still viable..) is now a fundamental in the bitcoin "investment" thesis? That would be similar to buying a micro cap which has 3 customers and then saying "see, customer 4 now also accepts the product, the stock is worth 100x earnings". Please... Nice way of using sophisticated words to make it look more credible "vector". Where does Bitcoin "transfer" capital to a new generation of users? You simply GIVE your capital (euro, usd whatever) to own a part of this virtual currency, nothing more. Yes nothing new, technology is also built on the USD or the RMB. Technology is built upon many things but i guess you need to use the buzz word "TECHNOLOGY" as munger said. Its literally a currency. A euro is in your thesis also a technology i.e a tool. All other currencies bind "value" to energy. BUT they can be replicated easier and are not limited as everybody knows by now. BTW absolute portability can be enabled with other currencies too if you use similar technology. Why is bitcoin superpartes? Why couldnt a a team of lets say, 50 smart software engineers build a similar product? I see 100+ other coins on coinbase... What about ethereum? Didnt everybody also own that awhile ago? And HEY? Its a similar looking chart? Or Solana?!!!

Yeah but making returns from a 1T base is a lot harder than from a 25b base. And where is the dislocation in the stock market right now--> value and smallcaps. Large caps getting more and more pushed up by the passive investing flood and i dont see this stopping much. More and more people i know start investing in FAANG+ ETFs or the SP 500, its a lot of power. Still, they can develop their operating businesses, their investments are rock solid, they can buy back stock. At this price will probably still beat the index but i dont see the opportunity for outperformance i see with FFH which is why i would shift to a degree.

If a collectible falls so hard in value and gains so hard in value within such a short time frame, it is simply not a good collectible. I'd rather buy a collectible that has very high desire from very wealthy clientele and holds/rises in value over time. If you look at very rare collectibles, none of them fall 70% and rise 200% that quickly in a short time frame. It's rather a sign of uncertainty of the value and massive speculation. It's not correlated with equities per se but rather with speculative tech equities and behaves as such. Especially if you look at tesla, nvidia etc, there were assuredly significant correlations. 90% of the central african republic has no access to internet, my own government warns me from going there due to high political instability, terrorism and local fights. 1m+ are fleeing. I dont see any reason why them trying to implement bitcoin is adding to the thesis, its sadly a shithole and currency is not the main reason why they are where they are. Its not that i dont see that currencies depreciate/lose value, i dont see how you are better off buying a "bitcoin" then buying real assets that will be productive 20 years down the road. Bitcoin needs government approval and implementation, any sane democracy understands that controlling the currency is a significant lever countries need to flourish, why would they surrender that control to bitcoin? I really dont, cash is trash. Assets is what one wants to own, high quality and on a cheap price. Only because the price went up for so long doesnt make it a good thing to buy it now. If you exclude speculators and traders, how many people do you know who use bitcoin in their daily life to buy groceries and other important things? I dont know anyone, i dont know anyone who knows anyone doing that either. Yes the wallet numbers is growing and the trade too but how much of that is speculating and buying it to make money instead of actually using the currency? Why would the german, france, UK, US, Chinese government want to lose control of their currencies? What will happen in a depression where stimulus is needed? What with a pandemic? Bitcoin is a bad currency that does not match the flexible needs of a countries economy. Currencies were never meant to be an investment and to hold their value over 100 years. Assets on the other side do.

A collectible isnt going down -70% and then up 100%+ in a timeframe of half a year to a year. No Picasso ever. It is absolutely no coincidence that bitcoin dropped so hard with tech stocks dropping and same is true with the upside. Ill guarantee you that the common variance with tech stocks is very significant and reasonable high. Arguably bitcoin wasnt as bubbleesque back then as it is now. And el salvador and central african republic are countries that the world looks to for imitation because their societies and economies are so successful? "name a single bubble that survived for 15 years". Thats the danger i pointed out right there. Just because it went this way has no support for the thesis. And the "market" doesn't know either as can be seen in the chart.

Hong Kong births rose in 2023 for first time in 6 years, government figures show https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3252599/hong-kong-birth-rate-shows-small-rise-first-time-6-years-and-population-also-increases-2023-figures

People are desperate to make money because capitalism became stagnant and in a stagnant economy people only get richer by taking things from others. Essentially what happened to the bottom 70% since the start of the neoliberal policies in the 1990. So now many young folks but also poorer older folks try to find their luck in crypto because the real economy is not offering what it used to offer. Its no coincidence that the trading mania and speculation is so high right now. But crypto will only make a few rich and many will pay for the few

Anyone on this board buys it to make money and to sell bitcoin after making gains in exchange for REAL assets. I suggest skipping the speculation in the first place and to buy real assets immediately.

Its a dangerous vicious circle, the higher the price of Bitcoin goes, the smarter the speculators feel and the more inflows happen. "brilliant investor bought bitcoin 5 years ago" yadda yadda. Well, at some point people will start to exit and realize gains and many people will be left holding bags.

It has no intrinsic value in the investment sense but it is a currency and used as such. Its hard to say how much of the current price is actually caused by people using it as a legitimate currency or because of traders/gamblers/speculators buying this and pushing up the price. Yes, they can trade bitcoin because of speculative inflows etc, same as speculating on shareprices. You can also of course buy bitcoin as a currency in hopes it will appreciate against the USD but why not buy businesses with wide moats that will be here in 50 years (LVMH etc). People buying bitcoin should not be labeled as brilliant investors but rather as high risk speculators. God, even my dad asked my if he should buy some bitcoin because the noise reaches even boomers. They DONT know what they are buying.

Wow so a 20x in 15 years with reasonable probability? How large is your "position"?

Agreed!

It is incredible unlikely governments will allow bitcoin as a larger scale currency, especially in the current disorderly political climate. And Bitcoin price desperately depends on its free trade and USAGE possibility. China is gone already and 1b+ with it. The EU certainly won't allow it either. The bitcoin fans i know are also often a sort of "truther" and believe in some grande collapse...you tell me what that has to do with investing... Absurd speculation and hopium.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businesstoday.in/amp/crypto/token/story/currency-that-no-one-uses-why-valuation-guru-aswath-damodaran-isnt-bullish-on-bitcoin-395418-2023-08-24 Bitcoin is the currency that nobody uses and a collectible that doesn't behave like a collectible." He also questioned its role as a hedge, stating, "It's gone up as stocks have gone up, it goes down when stocks go down. This is not the way a collectible is supposed to behave." https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2017/10/the-bitcoin-boom-asset-currency.html?m=1 I don't believe that crypto currencies are now or ever will be an asset class or that these currencies can change fundamental truths about risk, investing and management You cannot value Bitcoin, you can only price it: This follows from the acceptance that Bitcoin is a currency, not an asset or a commodity. Any one who claims to value Bitcoin either has a very different definition of value than I do or is just making up stuff as he or she goes along. It will be judged as a currency: In the long term, the price that you attach to Bitcoin will depend on how well it will performs as a currency. If it is accepted widely as a medium of exchange and is stable enough to be a store of value, it should command a high price. If it becomes gold-like, a fringe currency that investors flee to during crises, its price will be lower. Worse, if it is a transient currency that loses all purchasing power, as it is replaced by something new and different, it will crash and burn.

Do it! Its so lovely, really hard to go back for me...:P

Taiwan and Japan, Asia is just amazing...

A piece of history for fairfax right there

This is the recording of MWs question and watsas reply for the ones who didnt listen to the call Aufzeichnung (5).m4a