Luke

Amazingly good movie about political correctness, Danish production, @John Hjorth. Plays in Italy, Netherlands, and Denmark, mixed danish/English language. Highly recommended. Gotta warn you though, not for the faint-hearted...

Many countries see it like that btw, just look at BRICS. From Ronnie Chan: But frankly, this thing impacts everybody. And so I did devote quite a bit of time in my letter to this discussion. 3 things. Number one, I believe the capital flow in the world has been severely impacted and will change. And if a country can at will lock up people's U.S. dollar assets somewhere, will they continue to put money or assets in places which can be subjected to somebody's at will lock up, right? Even friends, allies of the United States are watching. Those guys are smart. They are not stupid, and they will do exactly the same thing as the less friendly to the United States. Nobody will talk about it. Everybody will quietly do it, right? However, [Foreign Language], sooner or later, time will -- things will service. And then it become a avalanche. And so I believe that the Ukrainian war is already setting in stage a gradual shift of capital flow directions in the world. That has been rather stable for the last 30, 40, 50, 60 years, but that has been changed. The second, that's capital flow. The second one is the energy politics, which, as we all know, has always been very important to the world. And it is not a joke. 1703, Peter the Great built St. Petersburg and move its capital there, symbolizing the westward looking of Russia, right? 319 years later, finally, the west says I don't want you. Never ever before. And in some way, Russia save the Western world during the Nazi days, right? And so for the first time, they say I don't want you. So Putin said, I will go east. And that's why it benefits China. It can get energy and food, which both are deficient in China, especially energy, a lot easier than otherwise. And so when they look east and when China benefits, our business benefits, right? I can go on a lot more detail, but forget about it. Number 3, inflation. Did the West before they react to the Ukrainian war, factor in the possibility of inflation such as shortage of food right, and energy cost? And that will have ramification around the world. Think about this. Famine always creates revolutions and social unrest, right? And Africa, forget about it. I know I'm into too much detail. I know again, yes, tons of stories. Africa will suffer. And you will see migrants from Africa that go across the Mediterranean into Europe. And so you have all these. Why is America going to Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE, right? The first 2 are debt enemies. The President are begging them, please produce more energy. And those guys just go like that, right? Ignore it. And even Saudi Arabia and UAE, they are not listening either. And so that's why the United States have to relax at least relax -- talking about relaxing some of the restriction on trade with China. [Foreign Language] Sorry for the Chinese, the Cantonese. Sorry. Anyway, so I think that -- and all that means that China will benefit. I think China will have a better time in the coming couple of years. And then, of course, you have the domestic situation in the United States that worries me no end. The Roe and Wade, that being reversed. That is just the beginning. You will see a lot more social divide to come, especially if Trump would come back in a few years. But even if not, I think that the division there is serious.

Have you ever been to russia? Do you have friends from russia? Its a beautiful country, with beautiful culture and with beautiful people. I know multiple Russians that are just average middle-class that live a great life there, have enough money, enjoy their time with their loved ones, go fishing, whatever...of course there is poverty on the country side but I don't have to show you the poverty level in the US in certain areas...contrary to western media, many people don't necessarily hate putin and he even has quite the supporter base. It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications.

So if the US build out their military presence in ukraine that way, ukraine has to expect response from its neighbor. As would Canada from the US if there would be Chinese bases building out close to the border. There is enough public evidence even for amateurs like us to see its problematic. Then imagine what kind of information russian secret services have about interference... If you want to argue that its justified to use your military to sabotage Russias security and to move a foreign country towards a zone of influence that you control, then I disagree with you. If you think you are allowed to do it because "democracy" then I disagree. The US wouldn't accept 1/10th of what they did with ukraine if China would do it in Canada, Mexico or whatever.

This is not even the point. It's about the security of the country Russia and its citizens. I don't think Putin/Russia look at the whole track record of America to assess their military security. Its enough to see where the US simply does what it wants against any rules. You deserve no more trust than China deserves, or even Russia. Everyone is spying against each other, as is the US spying against Germany as an example. The US would be equally willing to steal technology as China would. Where have I blamed democracy? I am simply talking about russias security perspective. If you don't consider that at all then you risk conflict, as we can visibly see now. The CIA bases, and millions of foreign funding are just one piece of evidence that Ukraine is not sovereign. Highly corrupt showplace of large military powers... This is not the discussion at all, it's about the interest of countries, including Russia and China.

But hey, there are, as I said before, Americans and others who would throw a party if China, Russia, North Korea, etc crumble and they could come and install a president who will pick up the phone from Washington. But expect some resistance... My 2cts for what it's worth Cheers!

The US, throughout its history, had brutal attacks, against international law against many targets/countries. They are closely involved in Ukraine affairs to bring them closer to their umbrella. They operate unknown military locations in ukraine, very close to russias border, that, for what it's worth, can be used similarly to black sites used in the war of terror campaign. Combine that now with active financing for pro nato, eu politics in ukraine via the euro maidan: https://jacobin.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-russia-nato-crimea -->>>> US officials, unhappy with the scuttled EU deal, saw a similar chance in the Maidan protests. Just two months before they broke out, the NED’s then president, pointing to Yanukovych’s European outreach, wrote that “the opportunities are considerable, and there are important ways Washington could help.” In practice, this meant funding groups like New Citizen, which the Financial Times reported “played a big role in getting the protest up and running,” led by a pro-EU opposition figure. Journalist Mark Ames discovered the organization had received hundreds of thousands of dollars from US democracy promotion initiatives. All of this gets ignored. Russia has nothing to say, Ukraine can do what it wants and get more and more threatening weapons...you tell me where that leads...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cia-maintains-12-secret-bases-212250351.html The US’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) maintains 12 secret bases in Ukraine along the border with Russia, and last Thursday CIA chief William Burns made his 10th secret visit to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. Around 2016, the CIA began training an elite Ukrainian special forces unit known as Unit 2245, which captured Russian drones and communications equipment so that CIA technicians could reverse-engineer them and crack Moscow's encryption systems. According to the NYT, one of the officers in this unit was the current head of Defence Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov. According to The New York Times, the details of the partnership between the Ukrainian and American intelligence agencies have been a closely guarded secret for a decade. The NYT reports that the partnership between the CIA and Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) began in late February 2014, when former president Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia. This cooperation was proposed by Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, who became the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU). Ukraine is so deeply connected with the US and directly positioned next to Russia. I understand that this is a huge safety concern for the country.

Its a fundamental disagreement on what russia is as a country. Putin for you, is similar to hitler, a psycho that will irrationally attack and move forward into other countries based on false facts and has to be eliminated and replaced with someone who does what he is told, preferably US orders. Its a fundamental disagreement on how useful ukraine is as a political asset compared to russia. Additionally some moral justifications are made how unethical it would be to not support the ukranians with every last dollar, ignoring all the other conflicts where we support and trade with these countries where we should, if we follow our logic, invest additional dollars to fight every regime we don't like. Its a fundamental disagreement on what is achievable in this war, how many resources the west needs to bring up while their own societies have poverty, dysfunctional schools, dysfunctional infrastructure etc. If your moral justification then is to help someone who is worse off, you would have to spend every tax dollar in Africa where million starve to death under brutal dictators and you would have to quite literally upsize military production to help any rebell group.

Nuclear weapons are not useless in this scenario. They could quite literally destroy much of Ukraine with them, making Ukraine's protection irrelevant because it will be just a destroyed death zone. This is in the circumstance that some foreign military really threatens the existence of the country and government as you would like to see it happen @Spekulatius. I think you underestimate russia and vastly overestimate the usefulness of the west keeping up this war. Whats in our interest here? Russia was a very useful economic partner so why should we start destroying that country? If you come with a moral justification then you would have to close down a lot of mines in Africa, cut contact with Arabic countries too etc, its all so hypocritical but people become a moral philosopher when it is about Russia but don't open one eye if its about relations with other brutal regimes. The debate is everything but honest. Thanks for your suggestion to my friends though, they already live in Germany but they miss their homecountry quite badly and contrary to your negativity, they have quite a lot there which is worth living for. But I guess there will always be some Americans who would like to see russia and russias people developing into a "hellhole" and that would be "good" for everybody...this is a level of aggression that leads to further escalation instead of rebuilding contact and mutual trust.

I'm pretty sure that they will start using nuclear weapons in Ukraine if there is a serious risk that Russia will fall. What would be the Western response?

How can they succeed against a country that has 10x+ the vehicle count, 3x the military size, way more resources, and ultimately nuclear weapons? The more they threaten Russia or destroy infrastructure the more severe and cruel the response will be. As will Ukraine's economy which is way smaller and in a way worse shape. Russia has a way longer breath. Okay, so Ukraine was not able to capture back eastern Ukraine so now they use their already small-sized military to get into rural Russia and do what? Why wouldn't Russia just move forward to Kiev in that case? What are they gonna do with kursk when they are leaving their life supply? Literally nobody says that. Its about choices and realistic chances. They wont win against Russia without direct interference of foreign military. Are you fighting till nobodies left or cut a deal? Totally different scenario and bad comparison. There is a realistic chance for many Ukrainians to survive and live if some adaptations are made. Only a mad men would fight till death. Nothing heroic about that either, more like suicide.

Is it the Carbon Capture business?

This is exactly how I see it too.

So whats the plan? Please be specific. Also for you @ValueArb What are you going to do about the situation, how can it be fixed realistically. Its easy to throw out some slogans but how are you gonna accomplish recovery of the eastern region while not further escalating the conflict leading into a total European war? Do you think civilians in the US would support sending US citizens and even more dollars to this country thousands of miles away?

Which isolation? They ship all their produce, get tons of produce over third party countries? West even still imports russian natural resources over middle men. Then they have china as a powerhouse which can basically deliver anything. Dont you find "developing into a hellhole" quite the stretch? In the bigger russian countries this invasion by ukraine isn't talked about much, far away and very rural. But in the media they make it seem like its a huge victory.

Is that why they fight so hard about ukraine too? Large coal reserves, natural gas, other minerals, lithium etc?

The countries that will have a geopolitical impact will be the countries that have the greatest wealth and technology creation. Europe is essentially now a corpse feeding off of legacy industrial businesses. It's really unfortunate. Especially the climate change targets and Russia cut-off will be the end off their competitiveness for a long long time. Id bet on the US and China doing well over time even with all the fear mongering. There will be a lot more growth in China than in the US...and valuations are cheaper too...time will tell...

NOW the Nr.1 "enemy" of the US has Russia as a friend, building happy pipelines and sending boatloads of resources for the manufacturing powerhouse China...loss for Europe, win for China, even more problematic situation for the US as you well said... Disaster economically for Europe.

Well, its for western countries to discuss because they receive billions of dollars and military support by them. If that stops they are free to do whatever they want of course.

Easily goes into mid hundred thousands with many more wounded and traumatized.

Does Protektor own a stock portfolio where they invest the float? Never heard of them, sounds interesting...

He does but not publicly available. You can filter on the Hong Kong stock exchange for some larger positions. The rest is unknown but likely he owns some Tencent etc

Russian friends of mine are back home in the summer, difficult to get there. Back then flight from Germany was 2hours, now its an around-the-world trip...told me the war isn't much of a topic in Moscow/Petersburg, a lot less than it is a topic in the west/germany at least. I went through the estimated death count numbers yesterday evening and can only react in shock, so many lives lost for what? Ukraine made 0 progress at the main target regions, invading Russia now is an interesting tactic to get extra negotiating power but does some really see here how they can get the eastern regions back? And even if they would temporarily be able to hold them, do we think Russia would stop? Russia does not seem completely unwilling to negotiate something and Putin is not completely irrational. Was it worth to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of men to get nowhere? Is not surrendering the Donbas worth 100k Ukrainians? Would the Ukrainians have lived if there would have been an immediate cease-fire and a deal that's not great but the best one can get? Harald Kujat quoted this recently on TV: By Theodor Storm: 1 One asks what comes next, 2 The other only asks, is it right. 3 And this is the difference 4 between the free man and the slave. 1 Der eine fragt, was kommt danach, 2 Der andere fragt nur, ist es recht. 3 Und also unterscheidet sich 4 Der Freie von dem Knecht

Time to send some people there I guess and start drilling!