Luke

I remember my "your predictions for 2024 SP 500 thread". I ticked 5% Returns btw! xD

When Muddy came in, didn't it fall to 1200 CAD for a short period? I saw many guys here loading up back then...great return on those shares so far...

Well said.

Ok guys, do you recommend me to invest into bitcoin now? Should i sell Fairfax for it? Please explain your recommendation, thank you.

This reminds me of peak GME 2021 btw! And yes, there were many who made a lot of cash. The ones who lost it weren't that loud

All you need is a bunch of irrational buyers who throw their hard-earned cash against this without knowing the outcome or being able to predict it to a certain degree.

Pump it.

I don't understand the entire text you sent and what you mean by it. Could you just write what you mean instead of analogies on top of analogies where readers have to interpret some meaning into this?

Dont nuke the thread, the board should be open to discuss this and Crypto apparently is the no.1 trump trade right now looking at coinmarketcap and all these coins doing 100% in a couple of weeks

I have laid out my argument and strongly disagree: If even highly intelligent and good investors like Li Lu only respond to bitcoin by saying "i dont understand it well enough" then that is problematic because it can give unknowing citizens the impression that the ones who own it and spread the news are very smart and this is a good thing to buy. THAT is not constructive for the investment world and dangerous too. Munger was one of the few who said it out loud and well, he deserves respect for it. Its another aspect of crypto that is noteworthy: The hesitancy of outsiders to say something against it while the price keeps rising. The price rising acts as a reinforcement mechanism for already existing buyers to buy more and at the same time discredit the critics and the party forever continues UNTIL?!

But also: Based on the attention this topic attracts and the attention this thread gives, crypto trade/trump trade certainly is full on!! But its also this: a trade. Not an investment but a trade! Good luck everyone and congrats to @james22 on making a shitton of cash in such a short amount of time. Make sure you know what you own and that you should sell the turds as long as someone is willing to give you that much for it

No. I never said the days of state-capitalism are over. State-capitalism is the system that brought the world the prosperity it experiences and labor unions did their part too. Free markets lead to monopolization, landlorddization and parastic rent extracters that ruin growth and the overall economy. Something i have just read: "A land reform law, inspired by the same one that the Americans were enacting in occupied Japan, removed the landlord class (similar to what happened in Japan), and created a higher number of peasants who, with the help of the state, increased the agricultural output dramatically. This was the first excedent accumulation source. After retreating to Taiwan, Chiang learned from his mistakes and failures in the mainland and blamed them for failing to pursue Sun Yat-sen's ideals of Tridemism and welfarism. Chiang's land reform more than doubled the land ownership of Taiwanese farmers. It removed the rent burdens on them, with former land owners using the government compensation to become the new capitalist class. He promoted a mixed economy of state and private ownership with economic planning." From the taiwan miracle economic growth. So landlords are not as useful as free marketeers would like you to believe and totally free markets with bitcoin as a currency will collapse.

Anyways, discussing why crypto is not logical with Bitcoin holders is the same as discussing why Jehovah Witnesses are in the wrong or why Scientologists are. The group think is too strong, the incentives too strong, its too complex of a topic to pin arguments down etc. We should pass on and accept it for what it is. The last few pages show the conflict and arguments very well.

@John Hjorth By saying "its on me not you" that you dont understand bitcoin is unfortunately something many people say who do not invest in bitcoin and i think its very dangerous to say what you say. It gives possible buyers the delusion that bitcoin buyers are more intelligent than they are because its hard to understand (it is not). Its not hard to understand, its bullshit. Thats what it is. Speak out when somebody speaks bullshit and dont say "i dont understand it so thats my problem"

Exactly. Its also very easy to engage in this bitcoin promotion because you dont need any knowledge for it despite the mythological fictional language that is easily adaptable and moldable into anything that suits the purpose of attracting new buyers. You are critical of bitcoin? "jeez guys, we are saying the same thing"!!! Whatever you say, the logical conclusion is to buy more bitcoin and if you want specific answers on questions they can not answer you will only receive further fiction and distraction. It is what it is and I dont know when this will stop. If you mean this then you have no idea about how economics and currencies work and why those cases will never happen. You CAN NOT run state-capitalism with a currency that is limited in supply and with 0 control on that currency. I have already given multiple reasons why, you are using science-fiction language that sounds good to the average joe investor but from an economist perspective bitcoin is terrible to adopt as a currency for any national economy.

I think america will do better under trump. So that means I would be long our value US assets that we already discussed. You will have cheaper energy and a more competitive industry, i think inner stability should increase too, listening to JD Vance i think the foreign policy should relax too which is good, maybe China relations improve too and I think Trump is more bullish for China than Kamala. Gonna be interesting few years!

An economy or society that is reliant on a currency that is limited in supply will collapse over time due to the lack of important traditional features of currencies. Capitalism won't work, and you would end up in so much political instability that those societies would collapse. Simple. I laid out a few reasons a few pages back why that is.

Yep. If you knew your macroeconomics, you would know that you don't want to own the hardest asset as a currency if you lead a government that engages in the dynamic capitalism that leads to so much prosperity

Good questions!

And this goes straight back to the topic of the thread: Trump trades. Trump wont regulate bitcoin! If he is stupid then he will give in to the promoters but that should cause the US harm long-term. So no, bitcoin or any crypto is not something i would go long with trump being the president for the next 4 years!

You dont give a f if buckeye buys but you give one so that millions of americans or citizens of other nations buy it. Essentially at some point everyone has some stake in bitcoin following the herd. And politicians dont want to hurt their voters, especially not if they all own bitcoin so there are quite the incentives in place to keep the mania going, certainly wouldnt like to short this...but also...its based on nothing but air and a story that doesnt make sense.

Yep, well said. I'll add a few more problems why bitcoin bros don't see the full picture: 6. Loss of monetary policy control-> can't influence interest rates to influence borrowing, spending, and investment, which is absolutely essential in our economies. 7. Control inflation or deflation-> bitcoin has fixed supply, if there are supply chain shocks like during covid your economy gets killed without being able to counteract against it. 8. Currencies were never thought of as an investment or that you can retain the purchasing power over decades. Businesses were. 9. Not being able to inject liquidity into the system in times of recession, especially not if there are some freaks like Micheal Saylor who control too much of the supply and then basically control huge swaths of the economy and essentially control others, which goes against democracy. 10. Price volatility makes it impossible for businesses and consumers to plan for the future with holding it for too long. The crypto bros themselves are giving a perfect reason why this sort of gambling around the currency is problematic: CRYPTO this way has a BUILT IN deflationary bias which results in this current hoarding behavior which is fatal because you guys should be buying nintendo games, coca cola and the latest iPhone and not hoarding everything in bitcoin! So Munger is right, there is a lot of delusion!

Very good observation. Thats a phenomenon for crypto itself-> owners become recruiters for new buyers-> price goes up->they are reinforced that this is "legit"->new buyers repeat sharing the prophecy->repeat. All based on a simple story embedded in mythological language. The new price target gets ever adjusted upwards until grandma buys in Stay sane @Buckeye

I think Elon buying twitter was not that dumb after all, certainly an important platform for this election which basically enabled him now free reign for his enterprises...it was costly but the ROI now with the new administration for him isn't shabby either! Lucky or genius?

Just post here; you shouldn't be hesitant to discuss viewpoints. I should move on from this thread anyways and give more space to others