Luke

The total amount invested in India is also quite significant to the market cap, Watsa was bullish...likely a lot of great things to come in the future too...

Great stuff...

Great AGM, listened to everything

Haha! NTDOY and JOE are certainly good candidates.

Honestly thats a really solid deal. And yeah, MC D got way to expensive...

Just imagine what's gonna happen to prices and the supply chain when the war with China gets hotter...geopolitical conflicts may have further supply chain shocks and inflation surprises down the road...the energy transition is also not really pushing prices down...the fight against oil...coal...at the same time rents just go up up up so wages have to go up up up...I feel very comfy sitting on a lot of Fairfax Shares...

Wasnt Munger always fascinated about China and their work ethic, fascinated by BYD too...fascinated by Li Lu, had large portions of family wealth invested in Asia and bought a LOT of Baba for his own family besides for DJCO...

Lol! I am 100% european, family coming from northern Germany, also great grandparents etc. no family history in China/Asia

That is nothing new, we all know that and I said Shareholders are No.1 in the US. I still think you wont get fked over as Munger said.

I am coming from the cosmopolitan country Germany haha! I'd say I can look with reasonable neutrality to both the US and China from this place.

And also dont get me wrong, i dont hate the US. I think the US can be a GREAT place and has SO much to like. Culturally, nature, many great people too, great history, very advanced economy, etc. But China is discounted so much and you can find problems in both countries. US tech is also very strong but also very expensive. Munger is right, we can all do well, Chinese, and US...and we should have a lot of free trade together...

It is no surprise to me that real problems in the US but also the west are overlooked and instead we are focussing on fake problems like all these transrights, women rights whatever rights which do what? Will we be happier when finally trans people can work 80 hours a week or 1 out of 1m transpeople plays a role in a disney movie? Its a fake public debate, a false flag operation to divert peoples attentions from real problems which nobody wants to solve. At least the SP 500 is at 5200 basis points...and 0.1% can go to an ivy league school while the rest either has to go in debt for private schools or live with the low quality public schools...the majority of Americans is NOT doing well. And China is the problem...and always bet on America! Long China honestly.

So how will the economy look like who regulates the bad things and how will the economy look like who doesn't? The picture is plain in sight, 70% of people overweight or obese, teens spending 5-8 hours on their phone everyday, 20% of adults diagnosed with depression in their lifetime, 10% with depression within a year, one in six people on psychiatric drugs for what reason? Because US is the greatest place on earth and everybody does better than all other countries? How many people come on top due to other drug abuse? Alcohol? But yes, we need way more free markets because that will do what?

How many hours do US teens spend on their phone everyday watching junk reels, playing games etc? If you look at some statistics, its horrific how many hours it is. But China is the bad guy to regulate that and their technology companies? How many people in the US are underpaid and work 2 Jobs to survive? Why is China the bad guy for common prosperity? The price hikes in food, other consumer products etc are also one example of too concentrated markets and too little competition, why do i have to pay 20 dollars for a junk burger meal? Why do i need to pay too much for cars when china now makes them better, cheaper and is even willing to send them to my front porch? But they are not allowed to do that...i wonder why that is...

I did tell you exactly what the differences are. Shareholders are place number 1 in the US, understood? Thats a clear difference I pointed out. But I also told you that that doesn't necessarily mean good things for the overall economy, people's well-being, achieving a higher level of civilization, etc. 70% of people in the US are overweight or obese. But nobody regulates or does anything. There are many more examples of this.

This economist has a point and Xi starts a common prosperity program-->Market--> CHINA BAD

I cant believe that you are convinced of "separation of powers" within the US. Reality is that the US is completely dominated by business interests and the pendulum is way reversed compared to china. Yes, that's good for shareholders but the US consumer isn't looking particularly bright either where 45% earn below 29k USD a month and concentrated markets with lacking competition will bring their own ills to an economy over time.

I disagree, if you look at what Li Qian recently said, its exactly these talking points. They are aware of the problem and obviously working on it. So many people make China look like its this "nothing can change its over" economy while they regularly publish writings that tackle all of the critical points...its a very dynamic economy as you can see by the past 20 years of success. Your article says: Xu highlights the profoundly obstructed channel of income transfer from the corporate to the household sector as the primary reason behind this distinctive consumption pattern. The extensive presence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, whose profits and dividends primarily flow to the state rather than households, diminishes the wealth effect that might otherwise stimulate household consumption. Nor is the highly concentrated ownership of many Chinese private enterprises doing much to increase the wealth or consumption of the wider population. I don't see why people working at SOEs couldn't get an income increase ordered by the government which will boost consumption. They did the same at JD where wages was forced up, which is smart. Privately owned enterprise need to pay their workers more so consumption increases, the CCP already regulates it quite heavily: https://www.reuters.com/technology/jdcom-cut-senior-executives-salaries-by-10-20-2022-11-22/ Ironically THATS then seen as "BAD" by the market. While they do exactly what is good for the overall economy. Furthermore, Xu points to the absence of an efficient market mechanism (again, a result of the disconnect between the corporate and household sectors) to balance the distribution of national income between consumption and investment. This shortfall means the household sector is unable to influence corporate dividend policies, resulting in excessive corporate savings and overinvestment. What they are trying to say is that consumers are too weak and corporations don't want to reinvest because they lack demand. Time for enterprises to increase wages...if they don't the CCP will do its job and regulate the economy.

Nice call.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education/article/3258541/hong-kong-universities-rise-newly-published-global-subject-rankings-driven-positive-employer?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage More than 50 per cent of subjects offered moved up the rankings in a newly published global league by Britain-based education information firm Quacquarelli Symonds City’s four public universities included in league table for data science and artificial intelligence programmes, with Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in top 10

Owning military stocks is the best play here probably if you think it will escalate in the next 5 years. With that you will outperform everyone.

If you think the odds of a china cut off are so high @Sweet, then you need to reposition your portfolio way different than just buying "good companies at reasonable prices", because those will get fucked when China leaves. So if you are so short China and long war, then you cant be long QARP stocks at the same time.

An investment in China is an investment alongside the people of China and their Government. An investment in the US is an investment alongside the people of the US and their Government. Both are the same thing so whats important is to understand how do the people and the government see your business? If you study CCP releases, Xis speeches, what public officials say, all lights are on green. Nobody wants to take your business away, nobody wants communism and a Stalinist economy, China will remain a partly private partly public economy just like other economies in the west. What is different is that china can regulate the bad parts in their markets and will do so, same should be true for the US but I don't know whats going on inside congress and their plans against mag 7. Alibaba will remain a private business for the coming decades and nothing will change in that regard with a 98% probability. 30% of the worlds manufacturing and industry is in China, ALL incentives are there to cooperate with China and not increase confrontations. If there is war, its over and I will probably be sent to fight in WW3 too so my portfolio will become irrelevant. If you think its thinkable that the same happens with China what happened with Russia then you are wrong, those are two completely different economies, the effect of China cut off would be 20x worse and lead to a hard depression for 5-10 years and global growth will probably stagnate for way way longer, I can afford to lose 25% of my PF in that case. Innovation in China is not to be underestimated, we already see how far they are and Tencent/Alibaba can easily compete with US tech.

Just look at Alibaba/Tencent. Huge buyback programs and 3x the buyback size of MAG 7 while shareprice flat for 10 years. I think its pretty obvious which stock will perform better from here...

So let me get this straight. As a Value Investor, you are looking at the fundamentals (which are good and growing) but then see that the share price has not grown with the fundamentals (dislocation of valuation) and then proceed to not buy it because there can not be dislocation in order for you to buy? In fact, quite the opposite of what a value investor would do.