Casey Posted May 22, 2020 Posted May 22, 2020 I sold out of AAPL. Curious if you want to share any reasoning. I have a bit long. Cranking out 30% app store fees, 80% of USA youths have an Apple phone, Trump has an apple phone, lowering costs on some models, Huwawei blocked for politics in USA, going towards services and other products like watch and health, reasonable capital allocation.
rb Posted May 22, 2020 Posted May 22, 2020 I sold out of AAPL. Curious if you want to share any reasoning. I have a bit long. Cranking out 30% app store fees, 80% of USA youths have an Apple phone, Trump has an apple phone, lowering costs on some models, Huwawei blocked for politics in USA, going towards services and other products like watch and health, reasonable capital allocation. I have absolutely nothing against the business. I think it's a great company. It was valuation sell. I picked up a lot of it a year or so ago when everyone was freaking out about iphone volumes and talking about what a piece of crap Apple was. But around $320 the value proposition is a lot different than around 160 which was my entry price. So I just rang the cash register.
valueinvestor Posted May 27, 2020 Posted May 27, 2020 EVBG, COUPA, AEO, PK, TDG, in favour for SHOP when it went down.
james22 Posted May 27, 2020 Posted May 27, 2020 Shifted some of my Emerging Markets fund (VEMAX) to US Small Value (VSIAX).
valueinvestor Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 Sold out of AEO, TDG fully and bought SHOP, SEA LTD.
clutch Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 Sold my Corona-damaged basket - BUD, MLHR, BPY.UN, RL - for 20~30% gains.
Spekulatius Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher. I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure). I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast. Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital. It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now. I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting.
thekiefs Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Sold most of my COVID trades: GOOG, WMB, SPY, V Finally exited FCAU, RACE to build some cash
Cigarbutt Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher. I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure). I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast. Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital. It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now. I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting. That's very interesting but i don't plan to spend more time on this (now). Looking for statutory documents can be a frustrating experience. Sometimes it's useful to look at specific states (Missouri in this case?). You may want to take a look at the following which is a solvency report from the "international" sub domiciled in Ireland. The report has a risk section (insurance risk, market risk and the new CV risk) with sensitivity scenarios that may be transposed to the whole company? https://rgare.com/docs/default-source/regulatory-documents/sfcr-report-template-2019.pdf They also seem to have significant and growing exposure to longevity risk which is related to the management of volatility of pension plans and that has the potential also to be very interesting. The risk that risks become more correlated may be underappreciated. Please eventually provide longer term follow-up.
bskptkl Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher. I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure). I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast. Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital. It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now. I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting. Have you looked at EMGC? There's a (public) writeup on VIC.
Spekulatius Posted June 4, 2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Sold short a bit $RGA (Life reinsurer) at the open when reading about their stock offering at $81. I was surprised it opened as high as it did ($89) and then even briefly went higher. I first thought it was a potential long until I read the 424B offering filing. It appears that they loose about $400-500M for every 100k death in the US or 1.4M worldwide, so it is very levered to excess death (which is basically the risk they insure). I closed this out for a small gain later, but I really think this has a potential as a short as I think we could be a few hundred thousand dead in the US before this is over and potentially a million. In the latter case, RGA likely would be toast. Anyone has a clue how to get statutory filings. Pre- Corona, they had ~$700M in excess equity and COVID probably took $400-500M of this, so I assume their actuaries got nervous and that’s why their raised capital. It’s cheap and trades far below book, but every financial on its way to going broke looks cheap and below book. RGA suffers from a double whammy of excess death and low interest rates so it could be really in a bind right now. I know it’s kind of Macabre to bet on a demise of such a company, but hey what happens, happens whether we bet or not. If nothing else, it could be a way to insure against the tail risk of the virus getting worse again. I own some so insurance positions like TRV, ORI and BRK that I wouldn’t mind protecting. Have you looked at EMGC? There's a (public) writeup on VIC. EMGC is a fundamentally different business. RGA stock up 12% today. Glad I covered yesterday. they also closed a subordinated bond offering. Looks like they are trying to reinforce their balance sheet, which is a smart move.
kab60 Posted June 6, 2020 Posted June 6, 2020 KNOP, 1/4th of ADS why KNOP? Quick trade (went long two months ago I think), never intended to hold for long but liked the somewhat uncorrelated risk of their charters and their niche . I think it'll do fine and trade up to BV, but I went a bit on margin in March and I'm dialing back down as well as putting more money into markets outside of the US.
benchmark Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 KNOP, 1/4th of ADS why KNOP? Quick trade (went long two months ago I think), never intended to hold for long but liked the somewhat uncorrelated risk of their charters and their niche . I think it'll do fine and trade up to BV, but I went a bit on margin in March and I'm dialing back down as well as putting more money into markets outside of the US. Makes sense. Given that it's still yielding 10+% dividend, assuming that your margin rate is not high, might worth the wait til it runs to BV.
Charlie Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 Sold Davita shares for my parents and bought some Berkshire b shares.
JRM Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 TD Ameritrade was showing me $1.45 credit on the HTZ $5/$4 put spread expiration Jan 2022 (mark). TD kept cancelling my order. If anyone is able to sell a $1 put spread for > $1 premium on HTZ, you're welcome.
lnofeisone Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 TD Ameritrade was showing me $1.45 credit on the HTZ $5/$4 put spread expiration Jan 2022 (mark). TD kept cancelling my order. If anyone is able to sell a $1 put spread for > $1 premium on HTZ, you're welcome. Thinkorswim side of TD doesn't let $1 put spreads trade >$1. I got lucky and closed out my puts 2 weeks ago. Was looking at put prices today but they are really out of control on HTZ. I'll probably do a $1 calendar 21/22 calendar spread at 0.1.
LC Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 Yesterday I sold a portion of NLSN; also closed short call positions in IRM, T, PM. PM I bought back at cost essentially; T & IRM I bought back for 90+% gains.
samwise Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 1990 HongKong: Xinghua Port. No topic on this, so just posting in this thread. In case anyone else owns and thinks there is more upside here. Does anyone have an opinion on what price this will be sold at, if at all. Thanks.
Spekulatius Posted July 16, 2020 Posted July 16, 2020 Sold my MSGS on that vaccine spike yesterday. I like other stocks better.
Gregmal Posted July 20, 2020 Posted July 20, 2020 Trimmed some DD, FIZZ, CRSP. Sold out of ANGI(Cheers to a certain board member on that one, thanks!) Added to shorts in PINE, OPK, AMRN
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