what are you selling today?

[Gregmal]

55 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Still own  AIRC?

 

 

I actually never owned AIRC and generally speaking think poorly of everyone involved; from the crooks running the company to loudmouth Litt. AIV just kind of jumped off the screen though as a classic orphan spin setup. Checked every box down to getting booted from the index and trading under $5. Mid December MF coastal had decent clarity. So it wasnt like I'd be buying a business, just assets that were stupid cheap after everything else had just rallied. So I bought the stub post spin. Turned out releasing the financials and maybe some insider buying ended up being the catalyst that got things done. But it basically played out exactly as one would draw it up. If you're looking for an investment theres better assets and better managers out there than anything in the AIV/AIRC complex. 

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

Curious on why now? Rose too much too fast? Not a long term hold?

No - not at all. Still like it plenty for the dividend. That said, looks pretty close to Fair Value to me at this point.

In fact, I had planned to hold it for some time.

Major reason was I found something better. I held both Imperial and MO - I do think Imperial has much greater upside at this point, so MO had to go.

For dividend lovers, MO is just fine, but my view is that it's pretty much a no-growth (or very slow growth) company.

[Spekulatius]

Sold remainder of my SIMO

[Fahrweid]

sold these week:
MO
BTI
FREE

Trimmed these week:
MU

To finance my larger BABA position.

[Spekulatius]

Sold FROG and KVSA (both for small gains).

[Castanza]

Took profits on PBCT. Had a nice run the past few months.

[fareastwarriors]

Sold out of AIRC at $45

[EricSchleien]

Sold out of Think Childcare tonight. 100%+ in 4 months. Bought after the company had received two prelim takeover proposals. 2020 was the year of the overbid special situations!

[Gregmal]

Exited modest sized, long held, fully margined positions in V, DPZ, ARE. Good time to be bolstering liquidity, IMO. 

[fareastwarriors]

Sold out of small positions in XOM and CVX a few days ago. 

[fareastwarriors]

Trimmed AIV at 6.70

[ANP301191]

Trimmed RBC, CAT and bought ATM puts on HON, DE, FITB.

[Spekulatius]

Sold my RNR - disappointing business performance. Stock went up since I bought it, but I lost confidence.

[formthirteen]

17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Sold my RNR - disappointing business performance. Stock went up since I bought it, but I lost confidence.

10 years from now you might be as happy as I am today that I sold this 10 years ago.

[Jmac42600]

Sold PCT. Was a speculative position and a mistake on my part in hindsight. Hindenburg's short report had very valid points.

[longlake95]

sold a little GIL.TO

[Spekulatius]

Reduced GD a little. I feel it has reached fair value around $190/share.

[Gregmal]

Trimmed more BRKB. Exited LIT(GB). 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Gregmal

[lnofeisone]

Selling MPC, CEQP, SWN, and some WFC. Getting close to unloading KNOP. 

[wabuffo]

Getting close to unloading KNOP.

Somewhere between $20-$22, KNOP will do a secondary as part of funding the dropdowns that are sitting with its sponsor right now.   KNOP has managed this beautifully.

wabuffo

 

 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by wabuffo

[benchmark]

8 minutes ago, wabuffo said:

Getting close to unloading KNOP.

Somewhere between $20-$22, KNOP will do a secondary as part of funding the dropdowns that are sitting with its sponsor right now.   KNOP has managed this beautifully.

wabuffo

 

 

 

 

 is $20 your target price to unload? Given it's still paying 10%+ dividend, why not just keep it to continue to collect the divs...

[wabuffo]

Given it's still paying 10%+ dividend, why not just keep it to continue to collect the divs...

Its not a 10% yield - this is a melting ice cube.  Part of its dividend is return of capital.  If it doesn't do any more dropdowns, then it would be in run-off and slowly liquidating.  Per their IR website, only two-thirds of the distribution is a return of profits, the other third is a return of capital.

So you have to adjust the yield.  It's really paying you a $1.37 dividend on, say, a $20 share price -- or a 6.8% yield (still attractive).  The rest of the quarterly distribution is giving you back your capital.  That's why KNOP has to continue to make capital calls on you to finance more dropdowns.  To its credit, mgmt has been very good about only doing those secondaries when cost of capital is low enough.  Unlike others in the shipping industry who routinely soak their shareholders at the worst times.

wabuffo

Edited May 12, 2021 by wabuffo

[lnofeisone]

7 minutes ago, wabuffo said:

Given it's still paying 10%+ dividend, why not just keep it to continue to collect the divs...

Its not a 10% yield - this is a melting ice cube.  Part of its dividend is return of capital.  If it doesn't do any more dropdowns, then it would be in run-off and slowly liquidating.  Per their IR website, only two-thirds of the distribution is a return of profits, the other third is a return of capital.

So you have to adjust the yield.  It's really paying you a $1.37 dividend on, say, a $20 share price -- or a 6.8% yield (still attractive).  The rest of the quarterly distribution is giving you back your capital.  That's why KNOP has to continue to make capital calls on you to finance more dropdowns.  To its credit, mgmt has been very good about only doing those secondaries when cost of capital is low enough.  Unlike others in the shipping industry who routinely soak their shareholders at the worst times.

wabuffo

This. +

1) KNOP will do a secondary and I expect it to drop to 18 or below. I've been a KNOP nibbler sub 18, and KNOP buyer sub 14. 

2) KNOP seems to always get beat up with oil even if they aren't exactly correlated with oil

3) I've been very overweight in energy. Wasn't great for me for most of 2020. 2021 is a different year. I still have few energy names (TGP, WMB, KMI, ET) that probably have more room to run than KNOP (maybe not ET. Spek was right 2+ years ago ) so I can still participate in the energy rally but in a more responsible way.

 

[benchmark]

54 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

This. +

1) KNOP will do a secondary and I expect it to drop to 18 or below. I've been a KNOP nibbler sub 18, and KNOP buyer sub 14. 

2) KNOP seems to always get beat up with oil even if they aren't exactly correlated with oil

3) I've been very overweight in energy. Wasn't great for me for most of 2020. 2021 is a different year. I still have few energy names (TGP, WMB, KMI, ET) that probably have more room to run than KNOP (maybe not ET. Spek was right 2+ years ago ) so I can still participate in the energy rally but in a more responsible way.

 

Thanks Wabuffo and Infeisone. This is helpful. Where was the last time that they did the secondary offer? 

Infeisone, I also own WMB, and am considering trimming as well fwiw

[wabuffo]

Where was the last time that they did the secondary offer? 

In 2017.   History repeats because in late 2015, early 2016 - everything oil-related collapsed in price (KNOP included - down to single-digits, IIRC).  Mgmt waited for the stock to recover in price and did a couple of secondaries in 2017 (at ~$22) for a few dropdowns.

wabuffo

Edited May 12, 2021 by wabuffo