What are you buying today?

[valcont]

 

It's not your style of investing to estimate intrinsic value without using price as an anchor? Because that is exactly what he asked you to do.

 

Estimate intrinsic value for an entity that just declared restructuring? NO THANK YOU. I sometimes think that Buffet has done more harm than good by blabbering these aphorisms that people mindlessly parrot. Here is a better one

 

“These stunts are performed by trained professionals, don't try this at home..”

[compounding]

 

It's not your style of investing to estimate intrinsic value without using price as an anchor? Because that is exactly what he asked you to do.

 

Estimate intrinsic value for an entity that just declared restructuring? NO THANK YOU. I sometimes think that Buffet has done more harm than good by blabbering these aphorisms that people mindlessly parrot. Here is a better one

 

“These stunts are performed by trained professionals, don't try this at home..”

 

Hey, it's cool, keep on betting on that deal flow bro. Btw, there's two T's in Buffett.

[Lance]

MO

 

Thanks

Lance

 

[Foreign Tuffett]

 

It's not your style of investing to estimate intrinsic value without using price as an anchor? Because that is exactly what he asked you to do.

 

Estimate intrinsic value for an entity that just declared restructuring? NO THANK YOU. I sometimes think that Buffet has done more harm than good by blabbering these aphorisms that people mindlessly parrot. Here is a better one

 

“These stunts are performed by trained professionals, don't try this at home..”

 

Hey, it's cool, keep on betting on that deal flow bro. Btw, there's two T's in Buffett.

 

I think "valcont" is actually UBNT CEO Robert Pera based on their identical misspellings of "Buffett"

 

 

(Just to be clear, this post is a joke and is not meant to be taken seriously)

[DTEJD1997]

I have been buying CBL.

 

They have a dividend coming up & I figured that I would to get it.

[CorpRaider]

Bought some COTY.  Just a little skin to make me pay attention.

[crastogi]

Just added to my position of PRAA which I've owned for 2 years now. I'd be happy to give my thesis in more detail but they basically have a duopoly in the credit card debt buying market. With credit cheap, banks have little incentive to sell charged off debt but during the next economic downturn pricing should improve. Until then they are trading at ~12x earnings with plenty of upside when the market turns.

 

I can't seem to get anyone else on board with this one so maybe I'm missing something.

 

Would be interested in hearing your thesis.  Right now they are at 16X earnings, which seem depressed.  where do you expect the earnings to go to?

 

[kab60]

Supervalu. (It'll be awesome if it lives up to its name)

[Snorky]

Supervalu. (It'll be awesome if it lives up to its name)

 

Do you have a link to a thesis or anything like that ?!

[Cardboard]

Some POE. We should be in the last few days, possibly hours, before learning about this 2nd well which will tell us hopefully a lot more about this play.

 

Having found hydrocarbons with the 1st well, cash and its other assets in a rising oil price environment, risk at this price appears minimal. That is not to say that the stock may not come down by say 25 to 30% on a total write off of the Indonesian play but, over a year, with more drilling in Thailand coming up, $1.40 feels reasonable.

 

Cardboard

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I've significantly reduced my stake in SAN.

 

I've been wrong for a number of years on their ability to hit profitability targets, and while I'm still optimistic that they get there - I can't tell you why they'd be any more likely to get there now versus the last four years where they've failed to achieve it.

 

The stock is signficantly off it's lows and most of my profits in the name have been made relative value trades between it and its subsidiaries. It no longer made sense for SAN to be one of the largest names in my portfolio. 

 

Purchasing more PDER and ATUSF with the proceeds as I continue to move out of financial assets to companies that are backed by REAL assets. 

[CorpRaider]

Someone wake me when Tony freaking Robbins stops publishing investment books.  Holy Robert J. Shiller this is going to be nasty.

 

Ahh I'm probably just pissed that I sold my BAC wta right before BAC starting ripping again.

 

Bought a little CAG.  Mostly a placeholder.  CEO did me right @ the old SLE. 

[Sharad]

British American Tobacco (BTI)

[gjangal]

BBY , it's cheap at 52. they have been growing online sales at a great clip. Price match with amazon in store. Should produce 1.4 bn in free cash flow.

 

Also BOJA is starting to appear cheap.

[kab60]

Supervalu. (It'll be awesome if it lives up to its name)

 

Do you have a link to a thesis or anything like that ?!

There's a write-up on VIC that sums up the thesis pretty well. It's a classic bad biz/good biz story with a bunch of noise in the numbers.

 

It's mostly known as a retailer, but the new CEO is a wholesaler with extensive M&A experience, and the biz is increasingly becoming a pureplay wholesaler (thus setting itself up for multiple expansion). The major event was selling most of the retail biz last yeah to delever, but they still have some 200 company owned retail stores that I expect them to get rid of.

 

They also own some 16 distribution centers (RE value in a retail play - where have we heard that before!) post their last acquisition where they'll have a bunch of sale-leaseback options.

 

So basically, it seems like we have a quiet competent CEO in his best years where the market might not appreciate how the biz is transforming.

 

There's always integration risks, but experience is a huge plus, and in wholesale distribution I think it's pretty straightforward. It's trading at around 4 times this years Ebitda guidance or around 6-7 times wholesale Ebitda, but wholesale should grow nicely with their latest acquisition and customers wins (grew some 12 pct. last quarter) and then you have a bunch of value unlocking options.

 

Sometimes it can take ages for management to unlock value, but the CEO seems pretty intent on pulling the right levers. While retail isn't popular right now, privately negotiated asset prices seems priced to perfection most places, so I'd prefer if he acted swiftly before an eventual downturn.

[Snorky]

Supervalu. (It'll be awesome if it lives up to its name)

 

Do you have a link to a thesis or anything like that ?!

There's a write-up on VIC that sums up the thesis pretty well. It's a classic bad biz/good biz story with a bunch of noise in the numbers.

 

It's mostly known as a retailer, but the new CEO is a wholesaler with extensive M&A experience, and the biz is increasingly becoming a pureplay wholesaler (thus setting itself up for multiple expansion). The major event was selling most of the retail biz last yeah to delever, but they still have some 200 company owned retail stores that I expect them to get rid of.

 

They also own some 16 distribution centers (RE value in a retail play - where have we heard that before!) post their last acquisition where they'll have a bunch of sale-leaseback options.

 

So basically, it seems like we have a quiet competent CEO in his best years where the market might not appreciate how the biz is transforming.

 

There's always integration risks, but experience is a huge plus, and in wholesale distribution I think it's pretty straightforward. It's trading at around 4 times this years Ebitda guidance or around 6-7 times wholesale Ebitda, but wholesale should grow nicely with their latest acquisition and customers wins (grew some 12 pct. last quarter) and then you have a bunch of value unlocking options.

 

Sometimes it can take ages for management to unlock value, but the CEO seems pretty intent on pulling the right levers. While retail isn't popular right now, privately negotiated asset prices seems priced to perfection most places, so I'd prefer if he acted swiftly before an eventual downturn.

 

Thank you very much. I will dig deeper into it.

[Valuehalla]

KHC

[writser]

Small stake in BRCD. Down significantly over the past few days as the market seems to be worried about Trump / CFIUS blocking the LSCC deal. However, in this case the buyer is a US / Singapore company. All other regulators have vetted the deal. I see no problems but what do I know. FIG also down quite a bit, might be interesting.

[sleepydragon]

Small stake in BRCD. Down significantly over the past few days as the market seems to be worried about Trump / CFIUS blocking the LSCC deal. However, in this case the buyer is a US / Singapore company. All other regulators have vetted the deal. I see no problems but what do I know. FIG also down quite a bit, might be interesting.

 

Interesting... I worked for BRCD many many years ago.. My millionaire dollar stock options were wiped out when the dot com bubble bursted, and CEO Greg Rayes (cousin of Ex Google CFO) went to trial for back dating stock options :) BRCD had two different ceos since and most people I knew there have left. It was a great company with a very interesting group of people till they all got very rich (except me and others who joined at around the same time) and retired. The parking lot used to be filled with many Ferrari and a senior manager came to work using helicopter ( he lived at top of a mountain facing pacific sea)

 

Their fibre channel business is hard to be replaced but is slowing dying. They moved aggressively to gigabit Ethernet but it is a much more competitive space.

[John Hjorth]

Added more BRK.B today.

[Cardboard]

FTP-TO

 

Once these hick-ups are over with at the Thurso mill and with increased capacity and lower costs at both mills we should see better EBITDA and improved share price.

 

Cardboard

[rb]

Added more BRK.B today.

Dude, you buy so much BRK you should just surrender and make it your only holding.  ;D

[John Hjorth]

I can't, rb,

 

There is a 20 per cent limit here in Denmark with regard to position size in tax deferred accounts. [<- It's just soo lame!] - Furthermore, I have come to like the whole game too much!

 

But yes, I sit on a boat load of BRK.B now, quite some above 20 per cent, I think - I've been buying for more than five years now. Right now, I'm in doubt about what the most valuable asset in the household is... Shares in BRK.B, the value of the our home, cash, or the value [to me] of the Lady of the House ...

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

[Fortunately, the Lady of the House is not a board member, and she does not read the board as a lurker ... - Otherwise, I would most likely be slapped - hard - because of this post!]

[LC]

The answer to that is totally dependent on who is asking the question :)

[John Hjorth]

That is true, LC,

 

- And that's also what makes it complicated [situation dependant].