Valuehalla

Epic comment !

9 B $ or more, less would be disappointing

This is what’s going on. I wish I was joking... https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ So they taked up LUMN as well ? Can not find that..

Folks, what is going on? Yesterday BB was up 30 % and today LUMN is up 30 %... ? And no reason for both ?

Buybacks: I can not see a change in WEBs mind. On the day before the AM (2th May) BRK.B was at 182,67$, the days before even higher. He said on 2th May the price is not more interesting than in January (when the price was in mid 220$ and he bought back). Also he reffered with his statement to the current moment. 1) Buyback prices of 175$ in May are app 5 % cheaper than the 183$ before his statement. 2) It is not our aim as shareholders that WEB creates the impression of "strong buybacks are coming next week." They shall do buybacks as cheap as possible. It is very smart to give a statement like he has done, to get ready for buybacks and start them massivly. Meanwhile the Coronadust on the battlefield has settled down, there is no panic anymore and right now i estimate a BV of 175$ the B share (like yearend 2019). So we are trading right now just 20 % above BV with 210$. 175 $ + 30 % is app 228 $ (after the older buyback rule BV+30%). if you add 45 % to reach app IV it is 254 $ (after the new buyback rule). 3) So I expect no further comments from him (would even be negativ to inform the public about further buybacks) and I expect he will go on with heavy buybacks till minimum 228 $ (like January). All information according buybacks is given in the written reports/decissions, now he is just silently exercising them. It is contraproductive to ring the bell before or while doing it. Concerning the cashpile and additionally the incoming cash, he can easily buyback half of the outstanding shares within 10 years. Think about that....

CTL Centurylink

Lang & Schwarz is a private exchange / marketplace opening at 7.30 am, than later at 8 am Tradegate is opening as well The ticker of the B shares in Europe is BRYN. Depending on the bank or Broker you can also use the WKN (Wertpapierkennnummer ) A0YJQ2 for BRK.B I sucked the maximum available shares at Lang & Schwarz for the mentioned price a few seconds after 7.30 am.

I woke up for Omaha today at 7 am at my German time to buy a bulk of B shares in Lang&Schwarz directly at 7.30. I paid 174.13 Euro ( = app 201.30 $) in first trade and 175,74 Euro (= app 203,16 $) in second on other account. I hope my sacrifice will be rewarded, when Wall Street opens. Hard work is done. 8)

So what does it mean? what is a conservative IV for today ?

Ok thats in fact a good point. Maybe WEB and CM look on it in the same way. We will see. But to me, I think its wrong, not conservative. Becasue the BV today is app 225.600. This means already 3,6 % up since end Q2. And believe me, my calculation is already conservative in itself.

Agreed. It moved up like what? 4% after the buyback cap was lifted? Not a move at all. Still 10% below the highs. Maybe there will be a chance to purchase shares ~$200 over the coming weeks. Or maybe the golden opportunity was the past two weeks when Buffett telegraphed what will likely be a massive, potentially accelerated, buyback. BRK moved up after the 17rh July, but the BV also moved up driven by AAPL etc. the lowest valuation during the last weeks was app 1.28, now it is 1.32.

the price to book value is now app 1.32, not 1.399

I think the situation concerning the buybacks is quite clear. According to the buyback text from 17th July: till 3rd August happened nothing. We are clearly under a conservative IV, because we just trade 1.32 x BV. IV shall be around 240 to 275 $ per B share. (See various estimations for the IV; for example Semper Augustus Letter) For me this means: from Monday on, the buybacks will start. They will end below a market price of 240 $ per B share Bulks of cash are ready. The time between 17th July (when the buyback was announced) till 3rd August was the time to load shares, cause the anoucment was more or less without any reasonable market results. During all this time we traded around 1.3 BV.

Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV FIGURES ARE OUT : 145.118 $ per B (217.755 A) The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing. BRK is now ( today) extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/warren-buffett-finds-an-elephant-in-berkshires-own-backyard.html "Berkshire's book value, based on its B shares, is estimated at $149 a share, while its intrinsic value is more like $236, according to calculations by J. P. Morgan Chase analysts." BV with 149 $ is app close to my own calculations (148.50 $ KHC adjusted) for today after close.

When I started the MELT UP chapter on 27th Sept 2017 BRK.B was at 183 USD. One aspect which was not mentioned by me is, that the inthronisation of successors for WEB an CM could have a positive impact on the stockprice. I think this is an essential subject, for an equal valuation of the whole company in comparison to other, for example MKL. Here is again the updated text from 27th Sept 2017: +++++++++++ UPDATED ++++++++++ There are aspects which could soon cause a massiv increase in BV or a massiv increase of the operating profit. I think there is a high probability to see a Melt Up concerning the stock price soon: 1) The Tax Reform DONE - reduced deferred taxes will increase the BV app. 34,4 B = app 10 % - in awareness of the repurchase program, an increase of BV shall drive the stock price immediately - FCF will increase, because operative gains will be taxed lower 2) The existing cash pile of more than 110 B - could lead to a mighty acquisition - up to 80 B in standby - maybe plus additional funds from 3G, KHC, BUD, QSR and / or leverage ... the dream of a 250 B elephant could come true .... - depending on the details, this could increase the operating profit of BRK massivly if 80 B are invested for just (!) 5 % this will increase the operating profit from 20 to 24 = 20 % increase! - could lead to an adjustment concerning the stock repurchase program, which will also drive the stockprice DONE 3) Higher interest rates: positive for cash holders ONGOING - 1 % higher interest rates means 1 B or slightly more profit on the 100 B: that s an increase of 5 % concerning a profit of app. 20B now - Competition in insurance business will get more soft, higher prices could be realized 4) Naming successors for WEB and CM DONE In the medium or long term: 5) A broader market set back - maybe caused by TECHs / FANG: BRK could start a big wide range shopping. 1 year after the 1th Feb 2000 when the last bubble busted, BRK nearly doubled and TECHs were defeated. Will we see a DejaVu ? 6) A heavy damage for the broader insurance businesses - after which strong BRK will exit in a better position than other weaker competitors, higher prices could be realized All this factors will provide a more surging stockprice of BRK in 2018

According to the Semper Augustus Letter Feb 2018 they calculated in different methods IV with a range of - 241 US$ to 255 US$ per B share for end of 2017 - alternative estimating IV is 1.75 x above BV, which means for today app 260 US$ per B share So this underlines my estimation 1.4 x BV is for sure very low. Longinvestor with 1.8 x BV for IV is on high end, but reasonable. We will see going BRK far more up during next weeks. 3th August will provide more details on the whole situation

Bizaro, than we totally agree on your point of view. sorry.

With this announcement they did NOT changed the number just to 1.3 They changed it to 1.4 , 1.5 or maybe 1.6 x Bookvalue ! And it will drive the stockprice up! It did already afterhours. Bizaro is recommanded to do homework on BRK There is just one sense of this announcement: To set the buyback-initial much higher than 1.2 x BV,cause the current marketprice is by far to cheap.

The Intrinsic Value is much much higher than 1.2 x BV.

According to my calculation BV went up by app. 4,8 % since end of Q1 till today. We are now/today at app. 147.50 US$ and (KHC adj. at 148.50$) IMO Intrinsic Value shall be minimum 1.4 above Bookvalue, which means marketprice for a B share shall be at app 208 US$ Cheers, holy smoke! Bishop John of Denmark, prepare the Omaha Vatican for celebrations. This is maybe not St. Elephants day, but a high rank holiday for the clerus worldwide!

According to my calculation BV went up by app. 4,8 % since end of Q1 till today. We are now/today at app. 147.50 US$ and (KHC adj. at 148.50$) IMO Intrinsic Value shall be minimum 1.4 above Bookvalue, which means marketprice for a B share shall be at app 208 US$

I agree totally with Dynamic The buyback shall be increased. Its to long already on a level of 1.2 1) cause of tax reform 2) cause time passed by (goodwill effect fe geico) Dynamic and Valuehalla saw it coming !!! CHEERS !

Nickenumbers, you can easily find the suctrure of the math in older posts, for example for end of 2017, here: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/2017-ye-intrinsic-value-versus-market-value/30/

Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV