What are you buying today?

[StevieV]

JOE and PAX

[Junior R]

18 minutes ago, StevieV said:

JOE and PAX

Whats the elevated pitch on PAX

[Gregmal]

Been clearing out the various FNMA preferred, last of Pcyo, and buying more MSGE, ABNB plus starter in NKE. 

[Malmqky]

24 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Been clearing out the various FNMA preferred, last of Pcyo, and buying more MSGE, ABNB plus starter in NKE. 

I agree MSGE looks attractive here, added a bit myself today. If one were to like SEA, MSGE should look twice as appetizing imo. ABNB certainly looks interesting as well...especially with a Trump presidency.

[Gregmal]

Yea I’ve rarely seen a stock as boring as msge trade as wildly on relatively nothing. The earnings were solid and everyone knows Q1 is always their seasonally soft quarter. The setup is nice as they are coming into their money printing season and have already indicated returning capital to shareholders should occur sometime in the spring. At $1.7b market cap they could pretty easily takeout another 5-10% of shares funded almost entirely from next 2-3 Qs of incoming cash.

[Masterofnone]

Also trimmed PCYO. Seems like a more enthusiastic market reaction than warranted by the results. (And that massive 150k buyback.....)

[LC]

Freaking hell, I really timed my exit of PCYO poorly. 

 

And well done on the FNMA (Trump) trades. That was a solid trade going into the election.

 

What am I learning here? I am a big ole dummy. 

 

Bought MSGE yesterday and today, I have a decent STNE position but might add to it as well.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, KPO said:

Added to STNE sub-$10. Solid quarter, good buyback progress, net cash position, favorable gross margin profile, and trading at a single digit P/E. Outside of the obvious risk of currency volatility, what’s not to like here? 

Same here. Started a bit higher and added today. PE around 8x, almost ~5% buyback of outstanding and ~20% growth in BRL. Who said there were no bargains any more. STNE is cheaper (in relative terms) than it was last year when I bought it.

These Brazilian stocks are very much driven by macro which typically is expressed in exchange rates changes.

[KPO]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Same here. Started a bit higher and added today. PE around 8x, almost ~5% buyback of outstanding and ~20% growth in BRL. Who said there were no bargains any more. STNE is cheaper (in relative terms) than it was last year when I bought it.

These Brazilian stocks are very much driven by macro which typically is expressed in exchange rates changes.

Agreed. Given their mostly transaction-based business model, STNE is naturally hedged on inflation in similar form to MA & V, but at one quarter of their multiple. 

[lnofeisone]

9 hours ago, mananainvesting said:

@Inofeisone: What’s your thesis on CNC? Any elevator pitch? Noticed the CFO buying, and I am intrigued. 

CNC primarily focuses on gov't sponsored healthcare. Their margins are leaner but they know how to operate in this space to get bonuses which is something that all other insurance companies are suing HHS for (CNC is also suing but they didn't get dinged as hard). They are projected to grow top and bottom lines. I don't think the current administration will do anything terribly wild to impact Medicaid/Medicare/Tricare. 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, KPO said:

Agreed. Given their mostly transaction-based business model, STNE is naturally hedged on inflation in similar form to MA & V, but at one quarter of their multiple. 

I agree here. Sold some puts here. If it goes down another 20% i'll load up on LEAPs. 

[StevieV]

18 minutes ago, Junior R said:

Whats the elevated pitch on PAX

 

Leading LatAm alt manager trading at a good price (about 14x 2024 earnings measured in DE).  I think they'll grow decently on a per-share basis. Scale matters for alts and so I like their scale in the region.

 

I have had success with the US alts - APO/ARES/KKR/BX/OWL.  However, they have all run up a lot.  PAX remains apparently cheap.  In general, I like that PAX (and various alts) can grow while paying out a substantial percentage of their earnings.

 

I think the big uncertainty for both me and the market is the Latam component.  I expect that's why it hasn't run up with the US alts.  The company claims a majority of AUM in hard currencies, but I don't think that eliminates all of the regional concerns.

 

I have a very small position.

[Spekulatius]

I am adding to STNE. Also a tiny bit of CNC

[mananainvesting]

12 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

CNC primarily focuses on gov't sponsored healthcare. Their margins are leaner but they know how to operate in this space to get bonuses which is something that all other insurance companies are suing HHS for (CNC is also suing but they didn't get dinged as hard). They are projected to grow top and bottom lines. I don't think the current administration will do anything terribly wild to impact Medicaid/Medicare/Tricare. 

Thank you, I appreciate it.

[fareastwarriors]

some $JOE

[Ross812]

Added to CNC and ULTA today. Finally got all the cash from my LUV sale back to work. 

[ourkid8]

Added to $JOE and $BABA

[sleepydragon]

Bought back BGC and LQDA

[villainx]

45 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

Bought back BGC and LQDA

 

something good happened with LQDA?

 

 

[sleepydragon]

10 minutes ago, villainx said:

 

something good happened with LQDA?

 

 

i sold it at $12, now it’s cheaper. This thing can be a multi bagger when they finally start selling it

[ValueMaven]

I bought some CACI down -20% in 5 days.  This whole DOGE thing is a massive overreaction.  Plus, I think over the next several years the govt will use CACI services MORE not less.  They just had their annual investor day as well.  I'm guessing at these levels they've ramped up repurchases. 

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

I bought some CACI down -20% in 5 days.  This whole DOGE thing is a massive overreaction.  Plus, I think over the next several years the govt will use CACI services MORE not less.  They just had their annual investor day as well.  I'm guessing at these levels they've ramped up repurchases. 

They are clearly the best run of these government software project companies (SAIC is also down some) but the recent surge was “out of character” for CACI in terms of the usual valuation bands. Even now, it seems to be at the upper range ar 1.4x EV/revenues . I think it’s a buy at 1.2x EV. Of course this is a very simplistic analysis if we’re to even call it even that. I do agree this DOGE seems massively overrated as well as all the other Trump winner/loser trades.

 

 

[buylowersellhigh]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

They are clearly the best run of these government software project companies (SAIC is also down some) but the recent surge was “out of character” for CACI in terms of the usual valuation bands. Even now, it seems to be at the upper range ar 1.4x EV/revenues . I think it’s a buy at 1.2x EV. Of course this is a very simplistic analysis if we’re to even call it even that. I do agree this DOGE seems massively overrated as well as all the other Trump winner/loser trades.

 

 

 

what makes CACI so much better than a BAH or SAIC?

 

[aceskc]

On 11/14/2024 at 3:48 PM, Spekulatius said:

Same here. Started a bit higher and added today. PE around 8x, almost ~5% buyback of outstanding and ~20% growth in BRL. Who said there were no bargains any more. STNE is cheaper (in relative terms) than it was last year when I bought it.

These Brazilian stocks are very much driven by macro which typically is expressed in exchange rates changes.

Adding to stone in size here.... if they sell linx for 0.5 to 1b ...they will have 1.5b to 2b in excess cash on a 3b market cap, with op. earnings expected to grow to 750 million usd in 2027, probably 2.5 to 3/ share post repurchases..they repruchased 1 billion brl ttm and indicated they ll do more soon, further they said they're about to tie exec incentives to to eps growth....this may be trading at 3 to 4 times 2027 earnings if they can manage the working capital book responsibly. Market under appreciates the power of txn data payment companies have to responsibly underwrite working capital loans.  Even a 15x multiple on 2.5-3 eps given its grown north of 30% cagr, gets you to 40 to 45/ share or more. 

Edited November 16 by aceskc
Typo

[gfp]

1 minute ago, aceskc said:

with op. earnings expected to grow to 750 billion usd in 2027

 

impressive! jk jk