boilermaker75 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more. I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 BABA (Yes I am a growth investor now with BABA,AMZN,FAST,VRX,BR, AAPL and CTSH making up 50% of my portfolio) Curious how you rationalize currents prices of say, BABA or AMZN? Do you run some sort of DCF out many years, assuming the companies will grow into their valuations and still give you sufficient safety in your investment? I'm not looking to attack, genuinely curious as to the thought process :) See AMZN thread, I have elaborated my thinking many times there. BABA is also similar, but more growth and lower margins (as % of GMV). I think once they get their market share, they are going to take advantage of the associated network effects to increase the margins to more "normal" levels. Btw, next year BABA's GMV in china is estimated to be 80% of WMT's GMV worldwide next year. How would you compare BABA with Softbank? I own softbank because I wanted to own BABA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueyoda Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 Softbank is definitely more undervalued than Alibaba is. However, the discount to the sum-of-parts valuation at the moment persists because of Softbank's less than stellar investment in Sprint. At this point, Yahoo is a better indirect vehicle to play Alibaba through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeiChiLoh Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 What is wrong with the long yahoo, short baba & yahoo japan trade? I cant seem to find a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeiChiLoh Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 but either ways, I am long BCOR & TPUB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more. I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit. Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 BABA (Yes I am a growth investor now with BABA,AMZN,FAST,VRX,BR, AAPL and CTSH making up 50% of my portfolio) Curious how you rationalize currents prices of say, BABA or AMZN? Do you run some sort of DCF out many years, assuming the companies will grow into their valuations and still give you sufficient safety in your investment? I'm not looking to attack, genuinely curious as to the thought process :) See AMZN thread, I have elaborated my thinking many times there. BABA is also similar, but more growth and lower margins (as % of GMV). I think once they get their market share, they are going to take advantage of the associated network effects to increase the margins to more "normal" levels. Btw, next year BABA's GMV in china is estimated to be 80% of WMT's GMV worldwide next year. How would you compare BABA with Softbank? I own softbank because I wanted to own BABA. I also owned Softbank because of BABA. I like Softbank and it is definitely more undervalued, but as others have pointed out, the discount persists for different reasons and I made the call that at this point, I'd rather have direct exposure to BABA than indirect given where BABA price is. So replaced Softbank with BABA. Might swap again if the BABA: Softbank ratio improves and I see Sprint turning around a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more. I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit. Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices? I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more. I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit. Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices? I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot. I do not know if the high multiple is justified. I'll get more serious about looking into FAST if I get put to on Friday! In the FAST thread Phaceliacapital points out that FAST has always been priced at a high multiple. Of course that is no justification unless the growth is still there. I also noticed the insiders were buying and that helped pushed me to go ahead and write some puts. Edit: FAST is by far the highest multiple stock I have looked at in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more. I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit. Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices? I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot. I do not know if the high multiple is justified. I'll get more serious about looking into FAST if I get put to on Friday! In the FAST thread Phaceliacapital points out that FAST has always been priced at a high multiple. Of course that is no justification unless the growth is still there. I also noticed the insiders were buying and that helped pushed me to go ahead and write some puts. Edit: FAST is by far the highest multiple stock I have looked at in a long time. Don't you think the predictability of the business deserves a higher multiple than average? Regarding growth, their investor presentation points to a very long runway ....so I am not concerned abt the growth as such (it will happen, just a matter of when). I recently swapped some of my long held AIG position to FAST - moving up the quality of business chain. I can sleep better with my entire net worth invested in FAST as opposed to AIG even though the multiple on AIG is paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more. I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit. Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices? I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot. I do not know if the high multiple is justified. I'll get more serious about looking into FAST if I get put to on Friday! In the FAST thread Phaceliacapital points out that FAST has always been priced at a high multiple. Of course that is no justification unless the growth is still there. I also noticed the insiders were buying and that helped pushed me to go ahead and write some puts. Edit: FAST is by far the highest multiple stock I have looked at in a long time. Don't you think the predictability of the business deserves a higher multiple than average? Regarding growth, their investor presentation points to a very long runway ....so I am not concerned abt the growth as such (it will happen, just a matter of when). I recently swapped some of my long held AIG position to FAST - moving up the quality of business chain. I can sleep better with my entire net worth invested in FAST as opposed to AIG even though the multiple on AIG is paltry. That's good to hear about FAST as FAST is now below the strike price on my put options! I don't know much about FAST, so I do not know how to judge the multiple. A predictable business that pays a 2.8% dividend with a long runway sounds like the sort of company I would like to own. If put to it would just be a small position for me, but incentive to get going with my research! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidVY Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 I've bought a lot of stuff recently. - MEOH -KN -Sold Kors shares, bought KORS LEAP Call options Jan 20,2017 (Strike 65) - SHERF (maybe S on TSE would be better as SHERF is thinly traded) - ZNGA LEAP CALL Options Jan 20,2017 (Deep-ITM /Stub Trade) Past 2 months added a few positions -CLD (best of the breed low-sulfur PRB surface coal miner) -MRC (PVF company) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Bought YNDX today. Last week I sold Citi and Goldman preferreds, AZSEY and KMI. Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Why do you like Zynga? It seems like they're a one hit wonder and don't have a competitive advantage or a clear strategy. R&D costs are enormous, and seem very ineffective so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookie71 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 FBAK pro's: selling near book value, good reserves, very conservative balance sheet, bank is aggressively re-buying it's stock con: Alaska's oil based economy AND stupid legislature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Lance, who is your broker? haha! Just kidding, I appreciate your willingness to share your ideas/moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidVY Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Ahhh Zynga is heavily misunderstood. Its more a reflection on mobile gaming (fast growing industry) and their upcoming pipeline. They have pivoted away from the old medium (facebook games) and towards the new medium which is mobile gaming. It just took some time to turn the ship around. They have 1) Command and Conquer game called Empire and Allies coming to mobile 2) Dawn of Titans (go look up the in-game trailers. Graphic is amazing!) 3) Book Value is right around $2 (Probably closer to $2.50 if you count that real estate in SF has skyrocketed). 4) Amortization of software/ depreciation accounting rules and goodwill write-downs will hide some of it true earnings 5) R&D for Games is big up-front investment. This likely accounts for their continued burn. I structured it as a $1 strike as a Zynga stub trade (BV around $2). Assuming revenues stabilize, cash-burn slows, and one of the game gets in the top 5 (which is highly likely) you are looking at a share price of between $6-8. I think Mark Pincus is a glory-hog and couldn't help come back when Zynga coming back. Its a definite good time to hop in before the games get out of beta and public sentiment changes against Zynga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidVY Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Just bought a small chunk of PGR- Progressive- shares -PE of 12.5 - Excellent underwritten insurance company (consistent combined ratio of around 92-96) - Coast to coast P/C and auto coverage - Conservative investor that returns excess cash (this year was 2.5% dividend and ~2% of float stock buyback). - Payout ratio on dividend is at 25% <---- Def room to grow - Great marketing division (Flo!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 TSX - ACQ AutoCanada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Lance, who is your broker? haha! Just kidding, I appreciate your willingness to share your ideas/moves. Hi CorpRaider - lol, yeah, my shorts have been painful. Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Lance, As a holder of KMI I am curious why you sold? My feeling is Rich Kinder will use the current turmoil to add assets at attractive prices but I am always looking for the flaw in my reasoning. If you don't mind sharing why you sold? thanks Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Hi Zorrofan - I sold KMI to raise cash for purchasing during the downturn that I've been expecting but never seems to arrive. I still like KMI and will likely buy it back in the event it move below my sell price. Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Hi Zorrofan - I sold KMI to raise cash for purchasing during the downturn that I've been expecting but never seems to arrive. I still like KMI and will likely buy it back in the event it move below my sell price. Thanks, Lance Lance, thanks for your reply - if it is any consolation I've been raising cash too but I am starting to wonder if the FED will ever let the market correct.... cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Sold out of SEC.TO and bought QVAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlCDore Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Sold out of SEC.TO and bought QVAL. frommi, Just curious why sold out of SEC.TO? Regarding QVAL, do you have a % of your assets in quantitative value funds? Have you looked at other funds? Thanks, AtlCDore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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