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constructive

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Everything posted by constructive

  1. I'd bet that is because of massive account closings, more so than their exposure to GME. They really destroyed their relationship with their core userbase today.
  2. I know exactly what you’re talking about, and I’ve got to warn you - it’s a value trap.
  3. It may not match what you are looking for, but here's a letter I sent to USNU ($1.5M market cap) a few days ago. To the board and management team of US NeuroSurgical Holdings: As a fellow shareholder, I would like to share my thoughts on the direction of the company. Congratulations to your team on the positive results from the NYU Medical Center over the last few years. Relative to its market cap, the company has substantial assets and expected short-term cash flows. By my estimation the company is currently worth about $0.55 per share, compared to a current share price of $0.17. However, I believe that if the company continues to invest in and loan money to its subsidiaries, it will have a negative impact on shareholder value. This is especially critical since the company has advanced $2M to subsidiaries over the last year. As you know, all of the joint ventures except BOPRE have a negative equity position and all except CGK are currently unprofitable. This makes these companies extremely shaky credit risks, and I question whether US Neurosurgical is earning an appropriate interest rate on these loans. Although it is somewhat early to assess the results at MOP and CBOP, the initial investments in FOP and CGK were made 9 and 12 years ago. It appears that US NeuroSurgical’s return on these investments has been unsatisfactory. Instead of continuing to invest in these subsidiaries, which do not appear to offer an attractive risk/reward, I believe the company should return excess cash to shareholders. Furthermore, the company is too small to justify the expense of being public. The most appropriate action would be to sell the company or sell the remaining assets and distribute the proceeds to shareholders when the NYU operations wind down. Please let me know your thoughts on this subject. Sincerely, Nathan Herold My math: $4.5M current assets $2.3M operating cash flow per year x 20 months = $3.8M -$3.5M liabilities Total: $4.8M
  4. There are a lot of crypto currencies in the grey area between token and security. This does not seem like one of them. The money was raised for them to spend it on corporate purposes, and they have described exactly how investors will earn a return on capital. Seems like an open and shut case for the SEC.
  5. I really hope the owner of optionbuyers.com is working on his own letter and video, telling his clients they’re all miraculously rich because of bets in the opposite direction.
  6. Given the market cycle, what do you think are the prospective returns on micro PE in general? How do you add value beyond that?
  7. Hi all, I’m looking for a new job and wondered if anyone here is looking for an employee/partner. I have 11 years of experience in architecture, mainly focused on student housing and dining projects. Although I’m a capable architect, over time I’ve realized that I’m better suited for finance. With the goal of changing careers, I earned my MBA from the University of Oxford and have passed CFA levels 1 and 2. The MBA program gave me a strong command of Excel and PowerPoint as well as finance, accounting and management concepts. I’d be a great hire because many of the qualities I’ve demonstrated in architecture will translate to finance: clear communication, independent judgment, sharp analytical thinking, attention to detail, and a commitment to customer service. I’m open to moving within the US (especially the southeast, midwest and mid-Atlantic) and open to different types of jobs including asset management, banking, consulting, real estate investment & development. Please let me know if you have any interest in discussing further offline. Thanks.
  8. At his peak rate he was filing a new annual report every 4 minutes. Cocaine is a hell of a drug. According to his LinkedIn profile he worked for a tiny Russian private equity company for 11 years and is unemployed since then other than ACCR. There’s not a 0% chance this guy is a Russian sleeper agent who went crazy.
  9. The fact that they’re trying to cancel his trades makes it seem like they are a bucket shop, not a real brokerage that executes client trades on the exchange in real time. The trader is an idiot, and the brokers are idiots, but I want to know how the total lack of risk controls is okay with the British regulator.
  10. I think your reference to PMS in the title is inappropriate. Bringing up PMS for no reason perpetuates the sexist view that women are irrational or negative. Think about your writing from your audience's perspective, not just your perspective. Good luck with your class.
  11. Their writedowns are going to be much bigger than $3B, roughly $12.4B and $5.9B. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41727-republican-tax-plan-will-trigger-another-fannie-freddie-bailout Precisely what doesn't make any sense to me. They entered into an agreement to hold $3bn. It was very obvious at the time that $3bn would not be enough to prevent a draw. What gives? The retained capital agreement wasn't intended to prevent a Treasury draw, it was really just political theater. Here's what they said: "While it is apparent that a draw will be necessary for each enterprise if tax legislation results in a reduction to the corporate tax rate, FHFA considers the $3 billion capital reserve sufficient to cover other fluctuations in income in the normal course of each Enterprise’s business.”
  12. Their writedowns are going to be much bigger than $3B, roughly $12.4B and $5.9B. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41727-republican-tax-plan-will-trigger-another-fannie-freddie-bailout
  13. "The principles underlying our investment strategy were handed down to us from Benjamin Graham." and yet "The P/E multiple for Sequoia is about 10% higher than it is for the Index right now." Much more so than Buffett, Graham was quite orthodox about investing in companies with low multiples and not paying much for expected growth. I don't agree that they are really following his principles.
  14. Sounds like it could be a good fit for crowdfunding - Kickstarter or Indiegogo.
  15. I'm not sure the brand name is good. It isn't specific enough about health. Go and visit are too vague and E- in the middle of the name seems outdated and awkward. onlinemed.com is available...
  16. Around 2010, I found a micro cap Chinese company selling wine made out of tree frogs. Not only that, they claimed it was very profitable.
  17. A company which grows at 15% per year for 21 years and then 0% afterwards does not deserve a constant 15% discount rate. It deserves a discount rate that varies over time.
  18. I don't think BV is a useful metric here. TBV is negative. With revenue and income declining over the past few years, it seems like they may need to take an impairment on intangibles.
  19. Any help on where to set the liquidation preference. Their customer service is probably the worst I've ever encountered, and they are still telling me it is impossible because the computer selects this... Here is how to do it in TWS - not sure if it can be set in WebTrader. https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/tws/usersguidebook/realtimeactivitymonitoring/portfolio.htm I hope you're also planning to reduce your leverage to give you more breathing room.
  20. You can set which positions to liquidate first. Automating margin liquidation and conservative margin requirements are two of the reasons they are able to offer lower costs than other brokers.
  21. Does anyone know if the 26% is gross or net ? https://www.docdroid.net/Zr9AWq6/pabrai-funds-2015-annual-letter.pdf.html Net annualized returns are: PIF2 (2000-2015) 12.9% PIF3 (2001-2015) 10.7% PIF4 (2003-2015) 7.3%
  22. "We aren’t going to see high oil prices, pretty much ever, because if oil goes to $60 a barrel, they will start pumping in West Texas. The fracking companies can be profitable in some parts of Texas at $35-a-barrel oil. So oil, for any sustained period, isn’t going to go up." I don't understand this claim. West Texas certainly isn't the marginal producer of oil. The marginal producers are mainly offshore or remote locations (Canada, Alaska, North Dakota, Brazil, etc). West Texas wells that are profitable at $35 are already going full throttle.
  23. Over the last 15 years, average venture capital returns have been below public market returns. So public market investors are not actually missing out as this piece suggests, in fact they're benefiting from the trend toward fewer public companies.
  24. Not all stocks go from cheap to expensive. Sometimes they go from cheap to fair priced to cheap again. It can be easy to forget that being greedy about your exit multiple isn't always rewarded, since we're in one of the longest bull markets in history.
  25. http://optionsoracle.software.informer.com/
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