What are you buying today?

[Castanza]

ATCO, BRK.B, CLF, INTC, BAC, ALCO, PENN

 

Edit: MSGE

Edited July 6, 2022 by Castanza

[no_free_lunch]

MHK - US based flooring company.  Not without some issues and housing could be a small headwind but at 7.5x earnings a lot is priced in.   I could be wrong but I don't see US housing construction falling off a cliff, it seems somehow they will continue to build.

[Red Lion]

Sold $90 BX PUTS expiring on 7/08/2022 for $0.50. If these get exercised I'll be up to my full position in BX. 

[Red Lion]

Bought some more KKR. 

[Every Banana Counts]

TSMC 

[kab60]

On 6/30/2022 at 6:39 PM, Spekulatius said:

The loss of Geico happened a while ago and is priced in. IAA is still a duopoly with CPRT, so I think it will do OK. It's available at a reasonable price now after the recent decline (Actually COVID-19) lows. I think the activist (Ancora) will put pressure  on management:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3813616-iaa-gains-as-activist-holder-calls-for-sale-of-company-or-ceo-to-be-replaced

Do you understand why the numbers are so much worse than CPRT? I haven't looked into it, but they weren't that far from each other in terms of revenue a handful of years ago. Since then CPRT has grown faster, and margins are just much better. Is there some big structural differences, because it's an interesting industry?

[Spekulatius]

15 minutes ago, kab60 said:

Do you understand why the numbers are so much worse than CPRT? I haven't looked into it, but they weren't that far from each other in terms of revenue a handful of years ago. Since then CPRT has grown faster, and margins are just much better. Is there some big structural differences, because it's an interesting industry?

Not sure their numbers got that much worse relative to CPRT. IAA spun off KAR in 2019, so that's reduced their revenues. IAA's profit metrics were always worse and I think one reason is that CPRT owns their scrap yard facilities while IAA tends to lease them.

[wristband]

Late last week added more Bam, Brk.b and Onex.

[Red Lion]

Partially unwound a position I put on against TLT a few months ago. Bought back TLT that I had sold short at about a 6% profit, sold the $123 PUT options I had bought at a profit. I'm still holding onto some $100 and $105 TLT puts that expire in August. 

[fareastwarriors]

More SWMAY.

 

Maybe Elliott can shake out a quarter or 2 from PMI. 

[modiva]

Started position in ATCO 

[fareastwarriors]

more MSGE in the 49s. 

[Gregmal]

Added to VRE, MSGE, Nintendo, UBER

[sfbm21]

6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Added to VRE, MSGE, Nintendo, UBER

what is thesis behind VRE ?

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, sfbm21 said:

what is thesis behind VRE ?

Orphaned non dividend paying, newly rebranded class A multifamily REIT with some remaining office and land assets waiting to be liquidated. Decent likelihood of a sale. It’s the old Mack-Cali. NAV probably $30. Worst case sale low $20s. Downside is that they think they are a growth reit and keep making acquisitions at 4 cap rates. But as long as they’re buying class A it’s not the end of the world.

[Red Lion]

Added to KKR. 

[n.r98]

41 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Added to VRE, MSGE, Nintendo, UBER

What is your thought process with Uber here? Flow reversals?

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, n.r98 said:

What is your thought process with Uber here? Flow reversals?

Been a position I’ve slowly been initiating and building into the sell off. Main thesis is that LYFT and yellow taxis aren’t a real threat, at worst duopoly like market dynamics, increasing pricing power. Gig economy benefactor(even though driving doesn’t seem economic people still do it because they want to work on their own terms), free upside on the delivery business. You can tinker with the numbers but should start generating substantial FCF over the next few years. 

[n.r98]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Been a position I’ve slowly been initiating and building into the sell off. Main thesis is that LYFT and yellow taxis aren’t a real threat, at worst duopoly like market dynamics, increasing pricing power. Gig economy benefactor(even though driving doesn’t seem economic people still do it because they want to work on their own terms), free upside on the delivery business. You can tinker with the numbers but should start generating substantial FCF over the next few years. 

 

Not an expert here but given the duopolistic dynamics that have been ongoing for quite a while, why haven't prices been raised already, to the point of free cash flow positivity for both players? And if they were warring, what would make them  "collaborate" eventually? 

 

Also, the delivery business seems like a very competitive one with thin margins and if Uber determines to make it big, would it then be a huge cost center for them?

 

Sorry for bombarding.  

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, n.r98 said:

 

Not an expert here but given the duopolistic dynamics that have been ongoing for quite a while, why haven't prices been raised already, to the point of free cash flow positivity for both players? And if they were warring, what would make them  "collaborate" eventually? 

 

Also, the delivery business seems like a very competitive one with thin margins and if Uber determines to make it big, would it then be a huge cost center for them?

 

Sorry for bombarding.  

I actually think this is the first time you’ve had a clear market. There was this huge rush to gain share basically up til IPO and definitely competition with LYFT. COVID in a way purged that and established what I view as more of a mature market dynamic. The way Kalanick built the platform, is was meant to burn cash, build market share, and kill competition. My thesis involves the assumption we are done with that. Now is where you focus on the economics. 
 

LYFT I knew a bit of pre IPO because it was always being hawked to folks that wanted Uber. It’s horribly run and I wouldn’t touch it. 

[ourkid8]

Bought a starter position in BAM with the proceeds from RFP.  

[Dinar]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Orphaned non dividend paying, newly rebranded class A multifamily REIT with some remaining office and land assets waiting to be liquidated. Decent likelihood of a sale. It’s the old Mack-Cali. NAV probably $30. Worst case sale low $20s. Downside is that they think they are a growth reit and keep making acquisitions at 4 cap rates. But as long as they’re buying class A it’s not the end of the world.

What about management comp, seems egregious?  Also, are you not bothered by absence of insider buying?  Also, do you like the Jersey City/Port Imperial assets or Park Ridge?  Are these truly prime locations?

Edited July 11, 2022 by Dinar

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What about management comp, seems egregious?  Also, are you not bothered by absence of insider buying?  Also, do you like the Jersey City/Port Imperial assets or Park Ridge?  Are these truly prime locations?

I dont care for management but this was shook up via the previous activist campaign and its essentially a low hanging fruit for an acquirer or future activist. Jersey City and Park Ridge are absolutely good assets given the supply constraints for the great NYC region. Especially the suburbs. I know the Morristown area especially well, and thats similar to Park Ridge. There's takers for these assets all day long, 8 days a week. Office is what I hate. Land I like but theyre trying to unload it. Ill have to stomach the vomit inducing woke verbiage for a bit, but I think from these levels this is super interesting vs at $17 it was good enough for a smaller position but also not unique enough to pound the table. 

 

What I'd watch and dislike is the idea these guys think theyre gonna grow a MF REIT. Get the fuck outta town LOL. Especially with your shares at 40% NAV.

[Dinar]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I dont care for management but this was shook up via the previous activist campaign and its essentially a low hanging fruit for an acquirer or future activist. Jersey City and Park Ridge are absolutely good assets given the supply constraints for the great NYC region. Especially the suburbs. I know the Morristown area especially well, and thats similar to Park Ridge. There's takers for these assets all day long, 8 days a week. Office is what I hate. Land I like but theyre trying to unload it. Ill have to stomach the vomit inducing woke verbiage for a bit, but I think from these levels this is super interesting vs at $17 it was good enough for a smaller position but also not unique enough to pound the table. 

 

What I'd watch and dislike is the idea these guys think theyre gonna grow a MF REIT. Get the fuck outta town LOL. Especially with your shares at 40% NAV.

Thank you very much.  While i see how this is incredibly cheap on a liquidation basis, my problem is the SG&A burn.  I think that it could easily be $20-30MM per annum, and that significantly reduces NAV.  It is also not in the CEO's interest to sell the company, and I am trying to figure out what is in Aharon Aviva Katz's interest.  

[Kupotea]

Buying several oil producer/servicing stocks: SU, GXE, MEG, and TCW.