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Posted

PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness.  Like the risk/reward.

Posted

PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness.  Like the risk/reward.

 

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble.

Posted

PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness.  Like the risk/reward.

 

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble.

 

Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69!

 

In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50

 

Long live spac alpha.

Posted

PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness.  Like the risk/reward.

 

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble.

 

And that’s how we make the market. Gracias amigo

Posted

Interesting.  I sold out at $6.9 or so. 

 

BBG reporting that the COH and EC reached a deal today.  BK exit can now move forward pretty quickly.

 

wabuffo

Posted

PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness.  Like the risk/reward.

 

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble.

 

Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69!

 

In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50

 

Long live spac alpha.

 

Welcome back Gregmal.  It's nice to see you here again.  Apparently you were missed, as evidenced by the "Save Gregmal" thread:)

Posted

Bought some UAN Aug $30 calls.

 

Because why wouldn't one want to make a leveraged bet on a company whose business strategy is basically "take on huge operational leverage and then wait for fertilizer prices to increase"? Double the leverage, double the fun!

 

(This describes why UAN is an interesting speculation. Note that the price of UAN32 fertilizer futures have almost doubled YoY, with almost all that increase coming in the past two months. If today's prices hold for six months, I think the options will work out well. If not, they will likely be worthless.)

Posted

Interesting.  I sold out at $6.9 or so. 

 

BBG reporting that the COH and EC reached a deal today.  BK exit can now move forward pretty quickly.

 

wabuffo

 

What would you expect that bounce would be after the BK exit?

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