What are you buying today?

[valueinvestor]

WE.V

[Gregmal]

Added a small bit to DKS. Picked up AIV under $5 for a trade. Will probably sell it within 24 hours.

 

EDIT: also shorted a small bit of CVNA

[ourkid8]

I am extremely bullish on ATCO's prospects going forward. Close to 30% of my portfolio is in this position

 

1. Strengthening a moat around with their business being the lowest cost ship leaser

2. Improving their credit rating and the company should be investment grade over the next year

3. Acquiring ships with long term leases and with a ~20%-25%  ROE (They also have one of the youngest fleets out of their competitors)

4.  Atlas will be locking in long term rates at these elevated levels (Almost 15% of their fleet on contracts will roll-off in 2021 so its a huge huge tailwind)

 

I am very curious on what David Sokal / Bing Chan can do with APR as they have highlighted that they would like to move the company from short to long term contracts in the energy space.  My only negative I see is I would prefer that the company eliminates the dividend so they can continue to reinvest at very high rate of return. 

 

ATCO

[Gregmal]

Got some AIV at the pre market open mid 4s. Early bird gets the worm? Or flattened at the open?

[Castanza]

I am extremely bullish on ATCO's prospects going forward. Close to 30% of my portfolio is in this position

 

1. Strengthening a moat around with their business being the lowest cost ship leaser

2. Improving their credit rating and the company should be investment grade over the next year

3. Acquiring ships with long term leases and with a ~20%-25%  ROE (They also have one of the youngest fleets out of their competitors)

4.  Atlas will be locking in long term rates at these elevated levels (Almost 15% of their fleet on contracts will roll-off in 2021 so its a huge huge tailwind)

 

I am very curious on what David Sokal / Bing Chan can do with APR as they have highlighted that they would like to move the company from short to long term contracts in the energy space.  My only negative I see is I would prefer that the company eliminates the dividend so they can continue to reinvest at very high rate of return. 

 

ATCO

 

Agree with all the above. I'm adding quite a bit more here. Getting close to a 15% position

[Gregmal]

Got an ABNB tracker too. Also added to ARKG short. Beautiful fade action there. Had a field day with ALCO. Upped a 20 bps position up to about 3% on the opportunity with the peculiar volume.

 

https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1352/state-of-florida-approves-option-agreement-with-alico-to

 

Always great doing biz with the government in a business friendly state. Another $14m straight to the bank. Not this first transaction of this nature and I'm expecting more of this in the future. Stock is wildly undervalued.

[thepupil]

Got an ABNB tracker too. Also added to ARKG short. Beautiful fade action there. Had a field day with ALCO. Upped a 20 bps position up to about 3% on the opportunity with the peculiar volume.

 

https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1352/state-of-florida-approves-option-agreement-with-alico-to

 

Always great doing biz with the government in a business friendly state. Another $14m straight to the bank. Not this first transaction of this nature and I'm expecting more of this in the future. Stock is wildly undervalued.

 

party like it's 2005, what's next some TRC?

 

And  yes I'm aware that ALCO has changed drastically since its land bank value trap days, Trafelet drama and all that stuff.

[Gregmal]

Got an ABNB tracker too. Also added to ARKG short. Beautiful fade action there. Had a field day with ALCO. Upped a 20 bps position up to about 3% on the opportunity with the peculiar volume.

 

https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1352/state-of-florida-approves-option-agreement-with-alico-to

 

Always great doing biz with the government in a business friendly state. Another $14m straight to the bank. Not this first transaction of this nature and I'm expecting more of this in the future. Stock is wildly undervalued.

 

party like it's 2005, what's next some TRC?

 

And  yes I'm aware that ALCO has changed drastically since its land bank value trap days, Trafelet drama and all that stuff.

 

Long and strong the Sun Belt, baby!

 

The mid 2000s housing bubble was more or less the 1990s tech bubble. Guess what came after that in tech? I think its our time here. Runway is long. I'll get scared the day I hear a coastal liberal governor start talking about lowering taxes or implementing some sort of weather changing apparatus that provides 70 and sunny 10 months a year for residents....

[gfp]

Trafelet!  Thats the name I was trying to think of.  He was part of the group that were buying control of ALICO in the open market back in the day right?  It didn't go particularly well as I remember.  Haven't thought much of Alico since except for driving down Alico Road in Fort Myers a couple times.

 

Is Citrus production still being hit by Greening or whatever the scourge was?

[Gregmal]

A lot of the greening stuff is resolved. Dont worry, my hippie sister who aced her SATs, turned down Princeton to go to UF, and then decided to work for FWC for $35k a year has great contacts in this space!(said 50% serious and 50% sarcastically).

 

Alico has been recycling the conservation/protected land proceeds into additional groves. There is not really a catalyst here. But I think they've demonstrated over the past few years that theyre shareholder friendly enough. Solid inflation projection on multiple fronts here. Some free optionality on the mineral rights. I think its a pretty good 10-15% a year total return for a good long while candidate.

[shhughes1116]

Trafelet!  Thats the name I was trying to think of.  He was part of the group that were buying control of ALICO in the open market back in the day right?  It didn't go particularly well as I remember.  Haven't thought much of Alico since except for driving down Alico Road in Fort Myers a couple times.

 

Is Citrus production still being hit by Greening or whatever the scourge was?

 

Yes, greening is still negatively impacting citrus production in Florida.  Production is down more than 50% over the last ten years.  The various interventions studied and applied have not been effective at reducing the spread.  Infected trees have also been found outside of Florida, in Southern California and South Texas.  There is a semi-last ditch collaboration with Bayer AG to identify a solution.  In the meantime, a substantial amount of groves in Florida get transitioned to cattle grazing land.

[Gregmal]

Trafelet!  Thats the name I was trying to think of.  He was part of the group that were buying control of ALICO in the open market back in the day right?  It didn't go particularly well as I remember.  Haven't thought much of Alico since except for driving down Alico Road in Fort Myers a couple times.

 

Is Citrus production still being hit by Greening or whatever the scourge was?

 

Yes, greening is still negatively impacting citrus production in Florida.  Production is down more than 50% over the last ten years.  The various interventions studied and applied have not been effective at reducing the spread.  Infected trees have also been found outside of Florida, in Southern California and South Texas.  There is a semi-last ditch collaboration with Bayer AG to identify a solution.  In the meantime, a substantial amount of groves in Florida get transitioned to cattle grazing land.

 

Yea this is probably a more informative answer than the one I gave lol. What you're looking at for Alico is a couple things that largely balance out. So the low point of ~25M pounds set a few years back was a one off. You had 43M this year vs 46M the year prior. 42M in 2017 and this up from 25m or so in the earlier part of the decade. That said, this is somewhat of an "apples to oranges!" comp. They consistently plant new trees and have been acquiring stabilized groves as well recently with land sale proceeds. However an overall decline in production is typically offset by price increases. Additionally, they generate over 80% of their revenue from a contract with Tropicana which they've literally had forever.

 

So greening is an issue. It isnt really effecting Alico to any major degree due to the above, especially the way it was feared to in 2016 IIRC, rather it is something that effects the small grove operator/mom and pop type farmer. Typical big corporation will win type of things. With the benefit of decreased production equalling higher prices.

[gfp]

Thanks to you both

[kab60]

Small position in SUS:LN based on like 30 minutes of reading, this guy did a great writeup: http://lewissrobinson.com/

[Gregmal]

Bought some more AIV. Flipped the ABNB tracker. Felt greedy looking for more than $20 per share in a couple days on something so obviously not worth what its trading for at the moment.

[fareastwarriors]

Bought some more AIV. Flipped the ABNB tracker. Felt greedy looking for more than $20 per share in a couple days on something so obviously not worth what its trading for at the moment.

 

+1

 

 

Ride or die.

[boilermaker75]

Wrote some WFC 29.5 strike, Dec 18 expiration puts for $0.21.

[Gregmal]

Added a few more MX and BAM

 

EDIT: also got allocated some IIIIU

[simplefocus]

MSTR is the best risk/reward for Bitcoin.  1/3 of the company's market cap is in Bitcoin, and the software business alone is worth the current market cap.

 

Citron Research has a target price $700.

 

https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/MicroStrategy-The-Best-Way-To-Own-Bitcoin.pdf

[lnofeisone]

Bought some more AIV. Flipped the ABNB tracker. Felt greedy looking for more than $20 per share in a couple days on something so obviously not worth what its trading for at the moment.

 

+1

 

 

Ride or die.

 

I just sold my starter ABNB. 30% in a week is just money growing on trees but it's so uncomfortable. Bought some AIV, ATCO, and bought back my 25% in KNOP.

[thepupil]

Don’t get me wrong, I went from 25–>45 bps in AIV today (getting crazy!) and understand why people are buying it, but think that it was much more interesting to buy the package in the low to mid $30’s at 60% of NAV including the apt portfolio, than CrapCo/RemainCo is right now at 55% of company NAV.

 

Think my fellow AIV holders have a long and tough road ahead of them.

 

 

[Gregmal]

^It was, but IMO there was also a lot of other stuff floating around where you could make some easy money. In hind site, you definitely cant argue with buying the package(especially if you sold AIV at $12! on the spin), but right now there's substantially less value/opportunity I see, substantially more evidence of the bubble expanding(such as all those IPOs last 2 weeks), and IMO a couple weeks left until the clock strikes midnight and everyone does their predictable "its a new year, lets get serious again" routine. Ive got a lot planned for that oh so special week between Xmas and New Years where Robinhood hunting season is in full swing!

 

Agree on AIV, but Ive never let overhangs or "no catalysts" stop me. Bring on the $3s!

[thepupil]

Good point, I made about 40% on AIV and EQR is up about 36% over that time, could’ve just stuck to the good stuff.

 

I’m with you in hoping for some AIV destruction!

[elliott]

A couple of days ago...

HKG: 2283

[Gregmal]

Started some BKEPP.

 

Bought some BKEP premarket on the big announcement. Swapping this in for the preferred shares I own and will sell during the day. Transformation is taking shape!