yadayada Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good? I'm invested in this, but it's more of a bet on whether the product works as advertised. If it does and there are very few limitations to its application, then it should be an attractive product to the food&beverage industry (use less sweetener without compromising taste? also, potential cost savings? sounds pretty sweet!). The VIC post lays out the investment case very well. It's a long one. There's also good discussion on their message board. I think the author's reasoning makes a lot of sense, assuming the products work. If they don't work as advertised, then I'd be concerned about the counterpoints. I also really like this idea because of the similarities with past superstocks: the operating leverage, returns on capital, barriers to entry, competitive advantages, large addressable market. yeah i think only a few % is best so far. But i kinda want to make it bigger to like 8-9%. Just looks like a high probability of a multibagger. And i scratched intrexon from that list. And would make PIH (the insurance one) bigger. read here why: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2139333-1347-property-insurance-holdings-an-ipo-left-for-dead-with-upside-of-50-percentminus-100-percent?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=45 V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year. Also making Lombard risk bigger to like 8% instead of 4%.
rainman Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good? I'm invested in this, but it's more of a bet on whether the product works as advertised. If it does and there are very few limitations to its application, then it should be an attractive product to the food&beverage industry (use less sweetener without compromising taste? also, potential cost savings? sounds pretty sweet!). The VIC post lays out the investment case very well. It's a long one. There's also good discussion on their message board. I think the author's reasoning makes a lot of sense, assuming the products work. If they don't work as advertised, then I'd be concerned about the counterpoints. I also really like this idea because of the similarities with past superstocks: the operating leverage, returns on capital, barriers to entry, competitive advantages, large addressable market. yeah i think only a few % is best so far. But i kinda want to make it bigger to like 8-9%. Just looks like a high probability of a multibagger. And i scratched intrexon from that list. And would make PIH (the insurance one) bigger. read here why: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2139333-1347-property-insurance-holdings-an-ipo-left-for-dead-with-upside-of-50-percentminus-100-percent?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=45 V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year. Also making Lombard risk bigger to like 8% instead of 4%. Can you share your point of XON ?
yadayada Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 well thats the thing, i know very little. The bull case now is that some smart hedgefunds bought in (like einhorn). The guy who funded a good part, and most of his own money, has a stellar track record in biotech. And it is suposed to revolutionize how drugs work. And lots of very smart people involved in general. And if it works out it will be a many billion$ stock. But it just feels like im way outside of my circle of competence here. And there are better ideas out there i think.
constructive Posted April 15, 2014 Posted April 15, 2014 I bought DWCH to cover my short. Einhorn is probably making good money on the short side right now - might want to buy more GLRE.
Kiltacular Posted April 16, 2014 Posted April 16, 2014 JPM warrants. JPM seems like a fantastic deal at these levels if Jamie Dimon is even close in his assumptions of return on TBPS. I guess the market doesn't believe him. I do. -TBPS of 40.82 x 15% ROTCE = 6.12 EPS -TBPS increased at 12%/yr since 05, no dip in crisis, no dip from settlements, no dip from Whale losses -Maintained 15% ROTCE as capital requirements have increased. -Pruning the loser businesses. -Fastest growing deposits. -Uptick of 6B if interests rates "normalize" I hope they are executing on the buybacks right now in a big way. I agree on JPM looking good here. Anecdote: I've had occasion to deal with sales and back-office of 3 of the "big banks" in the last 2 years and JPM is in a class by itself on both fronts. It is a minor data point and could just be coincidence of whom I dealt with. Plus, JPM had me sign 10 times the disclaimers, etc. and has the strongest internet security in my experience and the best banking features of the three. Just thought I'd throw it in.
bargainman Posted April 16, 2014 Posted April 16, 2014 V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year. can you please expand on this?
wachtwoord Posted April 17, 2014 Posted April 17, 2014 Sold 40% of my INTC (which i had been holding since <$20) @ $27 and bought CTRX @ $39.50 with the proceeds.
no_free_lunch Posted April 17, 2014 Posted April 17, 2014 Sold 40% of my INTC (which i had been holding since <$20) @ $27 and bought CTRX @ $39.50 with the proceeds. I have never heard of CTRX before but a quick glance shows it has been growing like a weed and has got whacked lately due to lower 2014 estimates. Anything you can share on this one?
wachtwoord Posted April 17, 2014 Posted April 17, 2014 CTRX is the third largest Pharmacy benefit management (PBM) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmacy_benefit_management which came out of a merger between two smaller ones last year. Express Scripts (ESRX) and CVS Caremark (CVS). PBMs are the intermediary between pharmaceutical benefit payers and their members. The primary moat factor in PBM in scale because PBMs make money on the spread and can negotiate with those selling the drugs. ESRX and CVS are both significantly bigger than CTRX. This sector is growing significantly driven by the changes in the healthcare system in the US and I was interested in ESRX in the end of 2013 but too slow to pull the trigger and the prices rose beyond what I was willing to pay. Additionally STRX recently closed a 10-year contract with Signa which is expected to add $0.50 per share starting in 2015. This is not a (pure) value investment as growth is in fact needed to warrant the current price.
yadayada Posted April 17, 2014 Posted April 17, 2014 V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year. can you please expand on this? check out the SA article i posted. THey explain it pretty well. Or read their prospectus and presentation and in the thread I made about them there is a nice primer on the insurance industry.
no_free_lunch Posted April 17, 2014 Posted April 17, 2014 I am slightly, very slightly, familiar with PBM having done a bit of research on ESRX as well. I am just wondering what advantage CTRX would have if they are the smallest and thus don't have scale?
zuokk Posted April 18, 2014 Posted April 18, 2014 Being buying GWR on and off for a couple of week. Anyone else look into this? Pretty rare to find a defensive stock trading at such a discount to book. What do you guys think? Am I missing something? http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/gwr-to-global-water-resources/ Thanks!
buylowersellhigh Posted April 21, 2014 Posted April 21, 2014 Bought some LMCA on Friday. Anybody buying any BAC common or KMI warrants?
gary17 Posted April 21, 2014 Posted April 21, 2014 Was trying to buy an apartment in west Vancouver but the seller wanted $20k extra so I had to let the deal collapse. :(
randomep Posted April 21, 2014 Posted April 21, 2014 Was trying to buy an apartment in west Vancouver but the seller wanted $20k extra so I had to let the deal collapse. :( how much $ how many sq ft?
blainehodder Posted April 28, 2014 Posted April 28, 2014 Buying BAC this morning. -5.3% seems crazy high for a revised cap ratio of 21 bps.
Danger Zone Posted April 28, 2014 Posted April 28, 2014 Buying GLBS - Globus Maritime. Great uppside potential and downside protection. If the Baltic Dry Index remains depressed they should be able to keep paying of their debt, and if it recovers to higher levels their profits will skyrocket.
fareastwarriors Posted April 28, 2014 Posted April 28, 2014 Buying BAC this morning. -5.3% seems crazy high for a revised cap ratio of 21 bps. +1
crastogi Posted April 29, 2014 Posted April 29, 2014 Added to my position in WSTG @ 16$. Hi frommi - what is your thesis on this?
frommi Posted April 29, 2014 Posted April 29, 2014 Added to my position in WSTG @ 16$. Hi frommi - what is your thesis on this? It looked cheap to me, is growing and pays a healthy dividend. I first bought this at 13 and sold 30% @23, thats the part i just rebought because it got hammered pretty hard without reason in the last two weeks. My fair value was around 25$. Its possible that the business model sucks and will be killed in the future, but its not visible in the numbers and i will only sell when i see it there. I think it popped up in a magic formula screener. But i have to admit that i feel really bad for not selling the position completly at 23 and than forgetting about it. Right now i am pretty feared that it collapses completly perhaps thats the reason i bought more. :o
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now