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Posted

VOD

 

Trades for ~6X EBITDA. Bottom cycle margins, diversified, scale economics, low leverage + AT&T interest = likely solid premium take-out multiple. 8 to 9X perhaps? 7X worst case - 19% to 60% upside from here likely within a year.

Guest wellmont
Posted

KMI and KMP. 

 

Thanks

Lance

 

what's the deal here? is kmi the best kinder morgan to buy right now? thanks!

Posted

Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?

Posted

Unless Buffett was talking about a Tedd/Todd VOD purchase, I can't imagine he was buying VOD.

 

It would be out of the box unless you view it as arbitrage, in which he has been known to partake.  BP would be a guess if he didn't already hold the xom...

Posted

Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?

 

Bought Lukoil. But not sure if I am investing or making a donation to Putin.

 

Vinod

Posted

Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?

 

Bought Lukoil. But not sure if I am investing or making a donation to Putin.

 

Vinod

 

You don't think Putin will harm this further one way or another? I was tempted as well.

Posted

Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?

 

I've already had a small position in Gazprom from the last time it was these levels. Am considering adding to it or buying some Lukoil. Also beginning to research CEFs in this space to see if any can be had at sizable discounts.

 

Bought more SAN today. Second largest position behind Altius at this point.

Posted

You don't think Putin will harm this further one way or another? I was tempted as well.

 

The way I see it there are two main risks

 

(1) Russian government confiscating Lukoil assets

 

(2) Russian government imposing restrictions on foreign holders of Russian businesses

 

Given that we have an owner operator who has the benefit of learning from Yukos, I would think risk #1 might be somewhat low. However, if there are financial sanctions and asset freezes imposed by west due to Ukraine situation, #2 may be a significant risk.

 

I do not think we can really assess these risks and we just need to manage it with position sizing.

 

Anyway you measure it, it is trading at about 4x average earnings of the last three years. These are all in and what could be considered pretty normal level of earnings - if oil prices hold. I think the above risks are more than priced in.

 

Vinod

Posted

You don't think Putin will harm this further one way or another? I was tempted as well.

 

The way I see it there are two main risks

 

(1) Russian government confiscating Lukoil assets

 

(2) Russian government imposing restrictions on foreign holders of Russian businesses

 

Given that we have an owner operator who has the benefit of learning from Yukos, I would think risk #1 might be somewhat low. However, if there are financial sanctions and asset freezes imposed by west due to Ukraine situation, #2 may be a significant risk.

 

I do not think we can really assess these risks and we just need to manage it with position sizing.

 

Anyway you measure it, it is trading at about 4x average earnings of the last three years. These are all in and what could be considered pretty normal level of earnings - if oil prices hold. I think the above risks are more than priced in.

 

Vinod

 

I tend to agree, I actually put in a bid today but was too low.

Posted

I am buying NevSun (NSU).  I think it is drastically undervalued, and will post excellent earnings these next few quarters.

 

I am also attempting to get more junior miners that are producing, cash flow positive, have net earnings and little to no debt.

 

Bargains are few & far between, but there are some to be had!

Posted

Over the past couple months, the weakness in price in Bidvest, McCormick, Petsmart, and Kinder Morgan allowed me to go from 25% cash to fully invested. The majority was added to KMI which went from a 2% to 12% position. 

Posted

VOD

 

Combo of enhanced bid for Ono and AT&T comments causing weakness.

 

Ono bid appears expensive at 10X 2014E EBITDA. I'm comforted by the fact that Liberty Global finds the assets attractive, and VOD will be able to extract synergies via bundling with current Spanish offerings.

 

AT&T comments (see here: http://www.mobileworldlive.com/att-ceo-plays-hopes-vodafone-bid-report) are shenanigans. It takes years to invest in mobile networks, and now all a sudden AT&T is hesitant to invest in Europe b/c other operators have begun to move? Three months ago T thought Europe was attractive....

Posted

Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

 

And half the board just went into panic mode selling everything not nailed down.

Posted

Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

 

Hi Eric - how does this work in terms of sizing the hedge - do you look at your overall portfolio value; pick a percentage that you want to hedge - and buy enough puts where the value = the % of the portfolio that you want to hedge?    Thanks    Gary

Posted

Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

 

Hi Eric - how does this work in terms of sizing the hedge - do you look at your overall portfolio value; pick a percentage that you want to hedge - and buy enough puts where the value = the % of the portfolio that you want to hedge?    Thanks    Gary

 

I'm having a freakout at the moment.  There is no grand formula.  Just panic decision making.

 

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