TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Cash. Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more. Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+. Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today. VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling: 1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!) 2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again. Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market). Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today. Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT.... Seems like I was wrong this time around. Closed the extra positions but continue to hold the core hedge.
Gregmal Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Cash. Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more. Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+. Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today. VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling: 1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!) 2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again. Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market). Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today. Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT.... Seems like I was wrong this time around. Closed the extra positions but continue to hold the core hedge. We'll see. It seems every time something recovers(be it the economic news, stock market, or whatever) Donny thinks he's got money in the bank to go wage war on someone...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Cash. Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more. Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+. Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today. VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling: 1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!) 2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again. Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market). Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today. Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT.... Seems like I was wrong this time around. Closed the extra positions but continue to hold the core hedge. We'll see. It seems every time something recovers(be it the economic news, stock market, or whatever) Donny thinks he's got money in the bank to go wage war on someone... We'll see. I have a hard time deciphering politics, but if I had to guess, both sides are ready for a reprieve at this point and willing to take a little break from the tit-for-tat. I'm thinking the Chinese are refusing to escalate now because 1) They're trying to limit the immediate damage to their economy and draw this out over time 2) They're trying to delay when the damage occurs until election season to maximize the odds that Trump gets removed from office Why escalate now if doing so in a month or two better achieves those goals? Still holding the core hedge position just in-case, but wouldn't be surprised to see us take-off and approach the highs from here. Just glad I repurchased most of my covered calls at this point which means I can still benefit slightly from the upward volatility when it comes time to re-sell them.
sleepydragon Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Chinese are sending tanks into HK. Obviously they don’t want two wars at the same time. As long as US do not interfere with their HK crack down, China will want to reach deal sooner, preferably before they crack down the demonstrations in HK before the 10/1 holiday. If they delay reaching a deal, it will only get more difficult as protests in HK continue to escalate.
Gregmal Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Just snagged some more GRIF at 34.9, cuz why not
Cardboard Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 "They're trying to delay when the damage occurs until election season to maximize the odds that Trump gets removed from office" I believe that this strategy could easily backfire with the bunch of "crazies" on the Democratic side to borrow the expression from Stanley Druckenmiller. Trump is in a weak spot and they know it. Might as well sign an easier deal now. Cardboard
Gregmal Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.
SHDL Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October. My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever. cc: @netflix
DooDiligence Posted August 29, 2019 Posted August 29, 2019 Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October. My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever. cc: @netflix Done. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N1R9W4X/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
SHDL Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October. My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever. cc: @netflix Done. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N1R9W4X/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1 I have probably become a bit too desensitized by everything to be blown away by anything short of an insanely over the top fiction piece, but thanks. :)
no_free_lunch Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 MO. I think people should really look at this one. Yes there are risks, but I have watched the tobacco industry have a target on it since I started investing 20 years ago. They just push through it. I am just not sure if MO or PM is the better pick but went with MO as it is cheaper.
LC Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Short term you may see more pressure on PM/MO due to vaping: https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/news/20190826/as-vaping-injuries-grow-doctors-seek-answers The adult from Illinois who died is among 193 potential cases in 22 states of people hospitalized for the lung injuries, the CDC said last week. Doctors say they are seeing injuries ranging from severe inflammation -- also called pneumonitis -- to bleeding in the lungs. “Injuries varied, with most including inflammation in the lining of the airway and some even have bleeding in their lungs,” said Louella Amos, MD, a pediatric pulmonologist at Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, who has treated some of the patients involved. No cause has yet been identified, but a common thread joins each of the patients: All of them vaped.
no_free_lunch Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 There is always something like this going on with these companies, it never ends. In the short-term you are getting a 7.3% dividend, which is covered with no issues. Maybe they shut down vaping or maybe there is some adjustment to make it safer. If they shut it down, kids just start smoking again. I don't know how it all plays out but I am telling you, they are always, always under attack. They just keep making money in the meanwhile. For me, it's more an ethical issue. Do I really want to be investing in tobacco companies? I actually struggle with that more than the investment merits (not that it's a perfect investment but I am comfortable with the risks). In the very short-term I have overcome my ethical concerns.
LC Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 So I very much agree with you, in fact particularly so on the ethical roadblock (vs the actual investment thesis). In fact I would prefer if they would give up on the vaping, or at least study it more first. By comparison cigarettes are a known quantity. People have been smoking things for, hell, thousands of years and we have been studying the effects for at least decades. With cigarettes, people are making an honest decision (akin to alcohol).
Gregmal Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Entered the abyss. Bought a little TEVA and ENDP. Looking at a basket approach as it seems everyone thinks this is the end of all of them. Very small spec position.
BG2008 Posted September 3, 2019 Posted September 3, 2019 Berry Sold some of my $47.50 puts for $9.25 today (paid $1.90 for them). In short, I am going long the stock by exiting the puts. Looking to use the put proceeds to either buy more stock and/or calls.
Peregrine Posted September 3, 2019 Posted September 3, 2019 Berry Sold some of my $47.50 puts for $9.25 today (paid $1.90 for them). In short, I am going long the stock by exiting the puts. Looking to use the put proceeds to either buy more stock and/or calls. Just curious - what was the expiry date on that put?
BG2008 Posted September 3, 2019 Posted September 3, 2019 Berry Sold some of my $47.50 puts for $9.25 today (paid $1.90 for them). In short, I am going long the stock by exiting the puts. Looking to use the put proceeds to either buy more stock and/or calls. Just curious - what was the expiry date on that put? Jan 2020 - Not much premium at this point on that put because it is so far in the money
Gregmal Posted September 3, 2019 Posted September 3, 2019 CLF Why is the stock down 15% today? Been on the go today operating from my phone but all I saw was the special dividend and continued plummeting of Iron Ore. Company did ~300M Ebitda at 2015 low prices.... despite the drop from $120-$80 we're still nearly double those levels. Maybe I'm missing something though. Who knows?
Cardboard Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 "Berry Sold some of my $47.50 puts for $9.25 today (paid $1.90 for them). In short, I am going long the stock by exiting the puts. Looking to use the put proceeds to either buy more stock and/or calls." Maybe you could expand on the Berry thread instead of here but, would like to understand your approach as I thought you were squarely long the stock. Cardboard
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