Spekulatius Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 250 gallons of heating oil for the home. A value buy it seems as you got in before the spike to $100/ bro that’s some doomsters predict. I think it will be more like $2-5$/brl and quickly reverse. I doubt there much supply impact from the drone attack. FWIW, so many oil heated homes on the East coast. It would be a great green energy plan to have them all connected to natural gas. Does this Gregmal guy ever get his timing wrong? He's on some epic streak! Tesla is probably going broke a few days after he bought some puts on the stock. FWIW, I bought some SPY 280 Dec 20 index puts for hedging yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Two young kids are expensive enough and when your home runs on heating oil, you're always kind of "short" the market for that. Half of timing is just paying attention. A quarter is luck. The other quarter is overcoming that "voice" in every investor's(every sensible investor that is) head that says trading is bad. Or so I tell myself.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Bought some AYR from suckers who needed liquidity and thought a stock with a 15% spread was the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Bought more EAF and a little more TPHS. I was in NYC a couple of days ago, and after I visited the Charging Bull Statue on Wall Street and tapped its balls for luck, as I always do, I stopped by the TPHS property at 77 Greenwich and liked what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Strolling through the grocery store today and noticed that now everyone has a plant based meat product out. Saw the news about Tim Hortons dumping BYND and didn't have a difficult time seeing others follow suit. This shit doesnt sell in a number of markets. This is Tilray 2.0, lockup expiration 6 weeks away. So I shorted the pig via buying some well out of the money, longer dated puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agrippa07 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Added to MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Which puts Gregmal if you don't mind? They are crazy expensive due to shorts/volatility but, yeah I can see this going way down in time. Everybody can make this shit even Maple Leaf Foods and Tyson. $10 billion market cap is nuts for something that will be commoditized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Which puts Gregmal if you don't mind? They are crazy expensive due to shorts/volatility but, yeah I can see this going way down in time. Everybody can make this shit even Maple Leaf Foods and Tyson. $10 billion market cap is nuts for something that will be commoditized. I bought some Jan 2021's ranging from $50-$100 strikes. Its basically a 2-3 month trade idea. I think the lockup easily takes 25% off the share price. The thinking goes, yea... straight short you're paying 175% neg borrow which can be yanked at any time and the rate can and likely will go up. Shorter dated puts are insanely expensive and a sucker bet. 2021s that are out of the money that far are only pricing in time value. Ive got like 16 months til expiration and if 2-3 expire, there s still a whole lot of time value likely for those options which still have a good chunk of value whether the stock goes up, down, or sideways. But if I'm right, and we get a 20-30% or greater move down on lockup expiring(which really isn't much of a stretch given how some of these things trade, let alone if you follow what TLRY did)....we eat well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Added to JOE (got super cheap after Hurricane Adrian, which didn't really affect the panhandle), EAF and TPHS again. Bought a little more BHC, which I haven't bought or sold more shares in a while, but noticed Joe Papa the CEO bought a nice slug of shares recently. Story hasn't changed (debt keeps getting more manageable and outlook keeps looking better but stock price hasn't moved). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Sold some LON:IMB to buy more MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 MO Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Shorted TSLA Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Rebought some FOX Bought a starter in GTS, a crappy insurance business in Puerto Rico, trading at an even crappier price. Bought an even smaller starter in SPOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Flipped some GRIF around $39 for JOE under $17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 ALUMS (Euronext Paris) FFAH (Toronto) - a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Added to some JOE under $17 and EAF again, and to keep it interesting a tiny bit of SALT, TPHS and BHC (just because I'm OCD and like seeing my share counts end in round numbers and looking at things that end in 4, 7 9 etc. has been bugging me for days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Took off some of TSLA short. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 MO @<$40, 8.5% fwd yield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Almost doubled my position in AYR. Possibly the best risk/reward and margin of safety Ive seen in a very long time. Now trading at basically 2.5x 2020 adjusted EBIDTA. Buyback starts October 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Bought a bit more FOX and a starter in ANTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Anthem still looks a little expensive, doesn't it? Mind sharing the napkin thesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Anthem still looks a little expensive, doesn't it? Mind sharing the napkin thesis? Napkin thesis came from a recent WFC report on the health care insurance group. ANTM trades at an almost 40% discount to market, which is close to a recent trough discount in 2013 (42%). Average discount to market is ~23%. ANTM is the largest insurer in the market it operates together with UNH. scale matters and health I surname is a pretty good business. Stock trades on political concerns (it fell to a recent low during the first democratic debate when Medicare for all become a big talking point), but those political trends tend to be overrated by Mr Market. If you look further back, then ANTM has traded at single digit PE vs 12x now, so there room to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurpaul88 Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Bought a bit more FOX and a starter in ANTM. Just curious, why FOX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpagano Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Added to MSGN, tendering top of range. We'll see what pro-ration ends up at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Shorted TSLA Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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