What are you buying today?

[sleepydragon]

added to mount para

[dipod]

2 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Small position of PARA 15$ jan '26 calls.

Same. PARA LEAPS.

[Ross812]

HQI at $12.80

[anony208]

Added to IMPCX, PAR.
Opened GENIX.

[formthirteen]

More CHTR and CABO. What could go wrong? Checks own notes on CABO from March, 2023: ”Operating margins ~30%, gross margins ~70%. Don’t buy this piece of s**t again.”

 

 

Spoiler

CHTR 2009: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/business/28charter.html

The cable company, which is based in St. Louis, said it sought bankruptcy protection primarily because of the debt it had accrued over years of expansions and acquisitions, not any deeper operational issues. By reaching an agreement with a majority of its bondholders, including the private investment firms Apollo Global Management, Franklin Capital and Oaktree Capital Management, the company plans to shave off about $8 billion in debt.

With the continuing credit crunch, companies are finding it harder to obtain the financing needed to sustain a long and expensive bankruptcy case. By striking an accord with some creditors beforehand, these debtors have a higher probability of surviving and reorganizing. Charter hopes to exit bankruptcy protection by the end of the summer.

 

 

Spoiler

CABO' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.22   Med: 2.95   Max: 3.84
Current: 1.22

 

 

Spoiler

CHTR' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.52   Med: 0.77   Max: 1.09
Current: 0.63

 

Edited March 6 by formthirteen

[Paarslaars]

Some more PACB calls.

Edited March 6 by Paarslaars

[CorpRaider]

17 hours ago, formthirteen said:

More CHTR and CABO. What could go wrong? Checks own notes on CABO from March, 2023: ”Operating margins ~30%, gross margins ~70%. Don’t buy this piece of s**t again.”

 

 

  Hide contents

CHTR 2009: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/business/28charter.html

The cable company, which is based in St. Louis, said it sought bankruptcy protection primarily because of the debt it had accrued over years of expansions and acquisitions, not any deeper operational issues. By reaching an agreement with a majority of its bondholders, including the private investment firms Apollo Global Management, Franklin Capital and Oaktree Capital Management, the company plans to shave off about $8 billion in debt.

With the continuing credit crunch, companies are finding it harder to obtain the financing needed to sustain a long and expensive bankruptcy case. By striking an accord with some creditors beforehand, these debtors have a higher probability of surviving and reorganizing. Charter hopes to exit bankruptcy protection by the end of the summer.

 

 

  Hide contents

CABO' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.22   Med: 2.95   Max: 3.84
Current: 1.22

 

 

  Hide contents

CHTR' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.52   Med: 0.77   Max: 1.09
Current: 0.63

 

 

Haha.  I have been tempted lately and I owned Charter back before it went bankrupt.  Did you see the "potential downside between 90% - 100%" VIC short pitch on $CABO?  Kind of harsh.

Edited March 7 by CorpRaider

[formthirteen]

10 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

Haha.  I have been tempted lately and I owned Charter back before it went bankrupt.  Did you see the "potential downside between 90% - 100%" VIC short pitch on $CABO?  Kind of harsh.

 

I couldn't find the short pitch on CABO, but I read the short pitch on CHTR and agree with basically everything. The cable debt cowboys are empire builders at any cost. They got away with bankruptcy once already. I will sell CHTR soon, latest when the position is 10% underwater. The decline in share price seems unavoidable.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

I couldn't find the short pitch on CABO, but I read the short pitch on CHTR and agree with basically everything. The cable debt cowboys are empire builders at any cost. They got away with bankruptcy once already. I will sell CHTR soon, latest when the position is 10% underwater. The decline in share price seems unavoidable.

It was posted within the last two days.

[CorpRaider]

3 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

I couldn't find the short pitch on CABO, but I read the short pitch on CHTR and agree with basically everything. The cable debt cowboys are empire builders at any cost. They got away with bankruptcy once already. I will sell CHTR soon, latest when the position is 10% underwater. The decline in share price seems unavoidable.

I stick Paul Allen with the prior one, but it's not like he didn't have some other good outcomes...R.I.P.  Yeah, I should probably just stick with Comcast, but I'll probably get some liberty if and when they take out Altice and the stock gets smashed.  I mentally filed that prior short piece as buy it at $200. haha

 

Edited March 7 by CorpRaider

[CorpRaider]

On 3/5/2024 at 7:58 PM, anony208 said:

Added to IMPCX, PAR.
Opened GENIX.

I've been thinking about using GENIX in work retirement plan to "value tilt."  But I keep coming back to, "Why not just buy vanguard small value?"

[anony208]

4 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

I've been thinking about using GENIX in work retirement plan to "value tilt."  But I keep coming back to, "Why not just buy vanguard small value?"

GENIX is a long-short fund.

[CorpRaider]

Yeah. I thought maybe if value snaps back it will really rip. I evaluated their historical correlations and factor regressions and haven't got to yes so far.

[anony208]

2 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

Yeah. I thought maybe if value snaps back it will really rip. I evaluated their historical correlations and factor regressions and haven't got to yes so far.

It could certainly be Value's time to shine but that has been a tricky game to play for some time now.

[cash_incinerator]

On 3/4/2024 at 11:05 AM, Kizion said:

No fear of high Cacao prices? 

 

Ag Commodities go through these cycles.  We're not looking at permanently higher cacao prices.  In a few years (at most) prices will crash and hsy and the rest of the chocolate makers will keep retail prices as they are, scooping huge margins.  I want this to get worse so hsy gets absolutely crushed on margins in the near term.  Best time to buy will be when it's trading at 50x, cacao is at 10000, and hsy is at 130 or so.  I own shares now cause that's not a certainty, but easy to get bigger and bigger as it goes lower on ozyempic/ cacao price news.

[brobro777]

23 hours ago, cash_incinerator said:

 

Ag Commodities go through these cycles.  We're not looking at permanently higher cacao prices.  In a few years (at most) prices will crash and hsy and the rest of the chocolate makers will keep retail prices as they are, scooping huge margins.  I want this to get worse so hsy gets absolutely crushed on margins in the near term.  Best time to buy will be when it's trading at 50x, cacao is at 10000, and hsy is at 130 or so.  I own shares now cause that's not a certainty, but easy to get bigger and bigger as it goes lower on ozyempic/ cacao price news.

 

This is good stuff, thanks man

 

 

[nwoodman]

Minor add 7974 Nintendo

[Saluki]

Small adds to Anterix and Coupang.  

 

[longlake95]

parked more $$$ in FFH.PR.D, yielding 9.6%, goes ex-divvy this Friday. 

[Luca]

Added to PDD

[Luca]

I am eyeing on nintendo but have to wait till my margin use gets down a bit over the next months.

[valueventures]

On 3/5/2024 at 7:58 PM, anony208 said:

Added to IMPCX, PAR.
Opened GENIX.

What are your thoughts on PAR's two acquisitions that were just announced?

[anony208]

11 hours ago, valueventures said:

What are your thoughts on PAR's two acquisitions that were just announced?

I don't know anything about the acquired firms but press release looks good. I noticed Greenhaven called out which is good because they have a solid track record. PAR is a "bet the jockey" investment for me but I have a pretty small position.

[valueventures]

Added to SCR.TO

[DM1]

Got more KW - Kennedy Wilson - yield at 11.50%