What are you buying today?

[KPO]

Doubled up my MAT position 

[EgonKuhn]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

I've started to get back to my Swedish Real Estate basket these days.

 

Today I've got filled on a few shares today of WIHL.STO - Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB.

I took a look at them on TIKR and was a bit alarmed to see that they actually even more debt now than during the last downturn in 2022. Doesn't that worry you a bit? As long as interest rates in Europe remain relatively low, everything will likely be fine. But if we ever see a period of higher interest rates again, there won't be much left over for dividends.

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, EgonKuhn said:

I took a look at them on TIKR and was a bit alarmed to see that they actually even more debt now than during the last downturn in 2022. Doesn't that worry you a bit? As long as interest rates in Europe remain relatively low, everything will likely be fine. But if we ever see a period of higher interest rates again, there won't be much left over for dividends.

 

You're right, Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

So, the question is really, what is [almost] dirt  cheap, and what is really dirt? I'm trying to find out, over time. Eventually , over a period, I'll find out, over some time. [I have done the same with something as much out of favour at times as banks, it has [net] played out quite well, so far.]

 

[This approach may cause some [minor] scars, but that's the Terms & Conditions of Trial & Error Approach here. [ I'm not even trying here to cover it it up as anything else.]]

[EgonKuhn]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

You're right, Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

So, the question is really, what is [almost] dirt  cheap, and what is really dirt? I'm trying to find out, over time. Eventually , over a period, I'll find out, over some time. [I have done the same with something as much out of favour at times as banks, it has [net] played out quite well, so far.]

 

[This approach may cause some [minor] scars, but that's the Terms & Conditions of Trial & Error Approach here. [ I'm not even trying here to cover it it up as anything else.]]

Thanks for your perspective here! I have some of these Nordic RE plays in my watch list but never pulled the trigger because of their indebtedness after so many years of extremely low interest rates in Europe.

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

Added to TSM and STX

And bought NBIS too

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, KPO said:

Doubled up my MAT position 

I looked at MAT today. Do you have a theory or any suggestions where to get started?

[lnofeisone]

I added to bntx and funding it by selling lqda puts.

[KPO]

15 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I looked at MAT today. Do you have a theory or any suggestions where to get started?

The buybacks are a significant part of my interest, and they obviously have some very valuable IP. I spent some time looking at valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield) against their own 15 year history and compared to Hasbro. Hasbro has better gross margins, partially due to product mix, but I’m not sure that supports a 50-60% premium. And MAT is unquestionably cheap against its own history. I could see them being taken out if this valuation holds or drops much further. 
 

Also, The Masters of the Universe movie was the disaster I expected, but MGM/AMZN are the financial losers on that deal since it was a mostly licensing financial event for MAT. It’s probably fair to say that merchandise pull-through was a disappointment though. I expect their next couple movies to be more successful and drive more pull-through, but Matchbox and Hot Wheels are actually performing pretty well on their own. 
 

Ultimately it’s a similar set-up to Nintendo……great IP, actually much cheaper valuation, but a competent and shareholder-oriented management team.  
 

What are your thoughts? And can you link this to the MAT thread? I’m technically challenged! 

[John Hjorth]

10 hours ago, EgonKuhn said:

Thanks for your perspective here! I have some of these Nordic RE plays in my watch list but never pulled the trigger because of their indebtedness after so many years of extremely low interest rates in Europe.

 

Thanks, Egon,

 

Please also see CofB&F topic : The Swedish Corporate Real Estate Crisis [2022 to ?]

 

Swedish menu card [] :

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Now who are in control of their sch*iße, and who are running a semidead zombie business with big arm movements for borrowed money?

 

SBB has basically disingrated midair after I opened the topic mentioned above, others are chugging along as if almost nothing has happened, nose in the track, others more or less wounded and weak.

 

-It's a fascinating space. 

Edited Friday at 08:54 AM by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Bought my first Korean stock recently :

030190.KS Nice Information Service. This is the main Korean credit report business. Part of the Nice mini chaebol. Nice Info has net cash and trades at ~10x earning run rate. Pays a 3.6% dividend that seems rapidly growing. They do small buybacks too.

Edited 9 hours ago by Spekulatius

[brobro777]

Bought MU, covered my short sale

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

Bought MU, covered my short sale

Bro, its still at 7.75x generational cycle peak EPS if you extrapolate the most recent Q....

[brobro777]

26 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Bro, its still at 7.75x generational cycle peak EPS if you extrapolate the most recent Q....

 

Come on all you guys on this board talk all them financial figures on top of all this technical mumbo jumbo and I stay silent because I'm too fucking dumb to understand 

 

I shorted last month at 1231.87 and covered in the 1160s for 70 points and yesterday I shorted at 1000 and covered this morning at 919.23 for 80 - I call that good eating baby, all without having to sit through the terrible short squeezes like I had to endure with EWY this year

 

Oh look, it's really selling off now and I covered too early - the story of my life, just another episode in the longest running comedy I'll ever see...

 

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

 

Come on all you guys on this board talk all them financial figures on top of all this technical mumbo jumbo and I stay silent because I'm too fucking dumb to understand 

 

I shorted last month at 1231.87 and covered in the 1160s for 70 points and yesterday I shorted at 1000 and covered this morning at 919.23 for 80 - I call that good eating baby, all without having to sit through the terrible short squeezes like I had to endure with EWY this year

 

Oh look, it's really selling off now and I covered too early - the story of my life, just another episode in the longest running comedy I'll ever see...

 

LOL I was being sarcastic. These chip stocks are one of the easiest shorts Ive ever seen here

 

[brobro777]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

LOL I was being sarcastic. These chip stocks are one of the easiest shorts Ive ever seen here

 

 

Haha yea I know

 

I'm just so scared of punishing short squeezes man, hoo boy they're bad

 

[bizaro86]

Bought some Comcast with the profits from closing some of my naked short BE calls today.

[Jaygo]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

These chip stocks are one of the easiest shorts Ive ever seen here

 

Are you not concerned about the general market buoyancy pushing these higher. My gut agrees with you but i'm not sure the risk reward is there.  Id love to hear more about your thoughts. If the market moves higher will you fold and take a loss?

 

Whats the strategy?

[Paarslaars]

The question is, what is different than 3 months ago? They were trading at high levels back then too, did not stop them from doubling. I am sure there will come a moment prices and margins come down but I am not sure this will be within the next year.

[Red Lion]

You could use bull put spreads. I just pulled up Micron out of curiosity, lots of ways to create a 100-200% gain if the price drops a little by next June (with a 100% loss) if it doesn't. I think you could do 500-700% with a drop to $500 if you go further out of the money. 

[Gregmal]

21 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

The question is, what is different than 3 months ago? They were trading at high levels back then too, did not stop them from doubling. I am sure there will come a moment prices and margins come down but I am not sure this will be within the next year.

So maybe 18 months ago, a few of us did some work on STX, which at the time was trading in the $80-120 range. Right, the AI trade was already a bit long in the tooth, but the general idea was that the memory stuff was the last leg that needed a repricing. Of course the reason it was the last to rally after years of anything AI gains, was because it was and always will be a shitty commodity type cyclical biz. Nevertheless we ran a whole bunch of different scenarios, and even in the most optimistic blue sky scenario, the highest price we could arrive at for STX was about $400 per share. After exiting in its entirely this past April, the stocks of STX and all its peers then basically did a 3x. Classic blowoff top. Nobody, and I mean nobody when you ask them why you would ever pay $1000 per share for Seagate, can give you even 1/10 of a reasonable answer within the framework of how we arrived at $280-410 price targets 18 months ago. At best, you get some vague crap about "AI gonna be big" and "higher for longer" on memory prices. Which still no where remotely justifies even $500 per share. 

 

So end of the day, it's some legit analytical worked overlapped primary with a gut feel for where the cycle is. The majority of my most prosperous investments/trades have been gut feel calls. If it doesn't work out I can maybe at most lose MSD of my capital. NBD. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Gregmal

[lnofeisone]

5 hours ago, brobro777 said:

 

Haha yea I know

 

I'm just so scared of punishing short squeezes man, hoo boy they're bad

 

I saw MU at 1200 and was thinking of shorting it but TSLA got me scarred and scared. 

[Paarslaars]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

So maybe 18 months ago, a few of us did some work on STX, which at the time was trading in the $80-120 range. Right, the AI trade was already a bit long in the tooth, but the general idea was that the memory stuff was the last leg that needed a repricing. Of course the reason it was the last to rally after years of anything AI gains, was because it was and always will be a shitty commodity type cyclical biz. Nevertheless we ran a whole bunch of different scenarios, and even in the most optimistic blue sky scenario, the highest price we could arrive at for STX was about $400 per share. After exiting in its entirely this past April, the stocks of STX and all its peers then basically did a 3x. Classic blowoff top. Nobody, and I mean nobody when you ask them why you would ever pay $1000 per share for Seagate, can give you even 1/10 of a reasonable answer within the framework of how we arrived at $280-410 price targets 18 months ago. At best, you get some vague crap about "AI gonna be big" and "higher for longer" on memory prices. Which still no where remotely justifies even $500 per share. 

 

So end of the day, it's some legit analytical worked overlapped primary with a gut feel for where the cycle is. The majority of my most prosperous investments/trades have been gut feel calls. If it doesn't work out I can maybe at most lose MSD of my capital. NBD. 

 

Yeah we are on the same page there, the only difference is my gut feeling tells me this still has some juice left.

That said my gut feeling is basically 50/50 so don't mind me.

 

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Yeah we are on the same page there, the only difference is my gut feeling tells me this still has some juice left.

That said my gut feeling is basically 50/50 so don't mind me.

 

Yea IDK exactly. I just think when you even do an itty bitty little bit of work, arriving at a price target around $400, and then in 1.5 months seeing that number 3x and yet still seeing people buying at those prices!!!! obviously thinking/preying/ expecting MORE upside? Like my odds.

[brobro777]

38 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I saw MU at 1200 and was thinking of shorting it but TSLA got me scarred and scared. 

 

Speaking of scarring, how about the dumb shit that I did in January this year with silver? Shorted and got squeezed out for a loss, only to watch it tank $50 after I covered - that's some bad scars baby

 

But I gotta say Micron is tempting me to short it again though, it's tempting - I consider $1000 psychologically important and it's clearly broken that, which means da headlines are gonna go out and the nervous nellies are gonna start to feel it and selling begets more selling...