What are you buying today?

[gfp]

I bought a little bit of QXO today for the first time.  I noticed BLDR was up and it reminded me of this former darling.  Ready for that Brad Jacobs magic to commence now

 

[Marco Van Basten]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Netflix 

Why?  Thank you.

[Spekulatius]

CME, PAX, SPGI, MSFT (adds or starter positions).

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Why?  Thank you.

Among other things, the continued deteriorating financial condition of competitors will just force prices higher which I think should lead to substantial improvements in profitability. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Among other things, the continued deteriorating financial condition of competitors will just force prices higher which I think should lead to substantial improvements in profitability. 

 

Yup...like Costco and Walmart.  Will eat up all of the cable companies for the next decade or so.  Streamers are just moving into full blown television programs like sports.  So far they've been just been eating up movies and unique programming.  They've just started bidding on sports programming and eventually will show all sports.  The more total programming they provide, the more people will be happy paying higher subscription fees.  Cheers!

[yesman182]

10 hours ago, Parsad said:

They've just started bidding on sports programming and eventually will show all sports.

They have been consistent in saying they are not interested in bidding on the multi year full season contracts. You think that will change? Or are you saying you think they will bid on more one-off sporting events in more sports? Like golf, or tennis or whatever else besides football. 

[Lance]

ICE, MKTX and TW

 

Thanks

Lance

[Eldad]

MSFT for kids and Mother in Law. 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Adding to Sony. It doesn't have the IP of Nintendo but at least management is restructuring to increase margins. Games are in the dumps but imaging is getting a nice tailwind from AI. Not world beaters but solid balance of businesses reasonably well run still at 6/7 times cf.. I like the anime stuff.

Edited 10 hours ago by Cod Liver Oil

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, yesman182 said:

They have been consistent in saying they are not interested in bidding on the multi year full season contracts. You think that will change? Or are you saying you think they will bid on more one-off sporting events in more sports? Like golf, or tennis or whatever else besides football. 

 

They'll be opportunistic.  If they find they are getting sports programming in a nice package for a fair amount, they will buy it.  Sports programming is really the only thing keeping cable alive.  Eventually, the streamers will replace the cable companies once they realize tie-ups with the cable companies aren't worth it any more.  We're not there yet.  Cheers!

[Lance]

CME and TMXXF

 

Thanks

Lance

 

[frommi]

EVO, CPRT, VEEV. Cheap valuation relative to growth/history and all have big buybacks and great balance sheets.

[Rainier]

Adding a lot to the financial exchanges.

 

Back in on Netflix. 

[Jan]

Some more BTC

[EgonKuhn]

New starter positions in CME, MKTX and TW

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

They'll be opportunistic.  If they find they are getting sports programming in a nice package for a fair amount, they will buy it.  Sports programming is really the only thing keeping cable alive.  Eventually, the streamers will replace the cable companies once they realize tie-ups with the cable companies aren't worth it any more.  We're not there yet.  Cheers!

The issue is that the sports content provider hold the cards and charge per viewer basically. So the Netflix advantage of having more scale really doesn’t work here. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Spekulatius

[ICUMD]

Looking at msft 

[Libs]

18 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Looking at msft 

More TSLX below NAV.

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The issue is that the sports content provider hold the cards and charge per viewer basically. So the Netflix advantage of having more scale really doesn’t work here. 

 

Not really.  For example, the NFL and NHL charge cable companies a flat fee to show their games.  FOX is paying the NFL $2.25B a year for 11 years under the current contract to show games.  NFLX can make a bid and get the rights, and then show those games globally across their platform.  FOX gets maybe 20-40M viewers for the big games other than Superbowl...and those games would be FOX's highest viewed shows.  Whereas NFLX has 325M subscribers and growing!  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

54 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Not really.  For example, the NFL and NHL charge cable companies a flat fee to show their games.  FOX is paying the NFL $2.25B a year for 11 years under the current contract to show games.  NFLX can make a bid and get the rights, and then show those games globally across their platform.  FOX gets maybe 20-40M viewers for the big games other than Superbowl...and those games would be FOX's highest viewed shows.  Whereas NFLX has 325M subscribers and growing!  Cheers!

If they do it like that, they need to increase the subscription rate to $40 or so (basically a cable bundle Netflix branded) and a lot of people will cancel. They can do this as an add on for additional cost but will get way fewer takers doing so.

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

If they do it like that, they need to increase the subscription rate to $40 or so (basically a cable bundle Netflix branded) and a lot of people will cancel. They can do this as an add on for additional cost but will get way fewer takers doing so.

 

That's probably what will happen.  At $40, that's still less than half the price of cable.  Streamers will become the defacto cable companies.  You bundle as much or as little as you want.  You order all NFL games for $10 a month during football season...or you might want to order UFC fight on a specific night for $25...etc.  Rent a movie just in theatres...$15.  You want Bloomberg, CNBC and other financial stations...$3 a month more.  Cheers!

[vpagano]

Sprinkling of down names this week: ADBE, NOW, INTU, DPZ, MSFT, UBER