What are you buying today?

[buylowersellhigh]

Starter in AMRZ

[KPO]

WY starter

[Junior R]

3 hours ago, Red Lion said:

 

I'll give a bit of a stab at it. 

 

Apollo has a sterling track record in credit going back for decades. It's not a gigantic part of their business, but even today you see Apollo in bankruptcy court and restructurings all the time, and it seems like they always come out ahead. I know this is anecdotal, but this is a huge factor in my comfort level here. 

 

They have an extended track record of outperformance at Athene compared to competitors. They match liabilities and asset duration. They have been taking outside capital to invest in sidecars which reduces the balance sheet commitment to the annuity/retirement subsidiaries. Underperformance on the annuity business is IMHO the most likely risk to materialize, but I don't see that ruining the investment at these valuations and growth rates in the asset management business. This is the hardest part of the business to analyze, but it's also an annuity business that isn't taking huge open ended risk on the liability side and is investing in privately originated investment grade credit on the asset side. 

 

They have a head start to the competition underwriting large amounts of private investment grade credit. Again, back to my first point, I think Apollo's decades of experience winning on the credit side of things gives me much more comfort as to their underwriting than e.g. OWL. 

 

A couple followup points:

 

PE - is not the growth story here, but Apollo's most recent flagship fund has been outperforming most of the competition due to a value focus. 

 

RETIREMENT - The retirement market is enormous, and we are in the early stages of seeing private assets rolled out to the private market. I'm sure traditional PE will see some flows of money from the retirement market, but I think the massive opportunity is going to be private credit and maybe hybrids. 

 

BX and KKR both have very impressive PE credentials, but I think Apollo is situated to be the front runner on private credit type funds. These asset management FRE are valued at a high multiple by the market. I'm betting that this is the next growth tailwind that drives Apollo to outperform over the next 10 years or so. 

 

Thanks this is pretty much my similar to my Theis on Apollo and overweight ...Also like you said Athene acquisition gives them stable long-term source of captial which they will also earn advisor fees for

 

the one thing though is with stocks in PE is that the stock can fulacate a lot in the short term...look at APO/KKR/BX/OWL

 

so this would defiantly not be a boring stock if you check your portfolio frequently  

 

 

Investor Day 2024 Video

 

August 2025 APO Presentation

[Junior R]

[Spekulatius]

Bought starters in $RELY and $AZE (Azelis).

RELY/ Remitly has been mentioned in several podcasts and is cheap but with potential macro headwinds. Azelis is a busted IPO from a few years ago and is a cheap chemical distributor. It definitely suffers from macro headwinds.

Edited October 8, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Saluki]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought starters in $RELY and $AZE (Azelis).

RELY/ Remitly has been mentioned in several podcasts and is cheap but with potential macro headwinds. Azelis is a busted IPO from a few years ago and is a cheap chemical distributor. It definitely suffers from macro headwinds.

 

I looked at Remitly because I own Paypal and was looking at Western Union and RELY. I don't use it, so it's hard to get comfortable with it, but I know that many digital nomads or retirees have used it to send money from the US abroad and seem to like it.

 

Small adds to CROX and PYPL today.  And I sold a couple of 2028 Puts on VG and used them to buy 2028 Calls on the same. I sold my shares for a gain, but I think the short term extreme volatility will be over by 2028 when they have more assets up and running with locked in spreads and financing. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don't like all the acquisitions from Azelis with little to show for it--when does that change ?

[WayWardCloud]

5 hours ago, Saluki said:

I looked at Remitly because I own Paypal and was looking at Western Union and RELY. I don't use it, so it's hard to get comfortable with it, but I know that many digital nomads or retirees have used it to send money from the US abroad and seem to like it.

Is it different from Wise? I used them a few times and it's been a refreshingly simple and transparent experience.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

Is it different from Wise? I used them a few times and it's been a refreshingly simple and transparent experience.

Wise is more of a fully digital bank than Remitly which simply focuses on remittance payments. their target customers are different.

[Pellom]

Starter position in GRBK. More GHC (it's falling quickly as I assumed it would when I started.) 

 

Probably not the best reason, but I've got way too much cash. I probably need to set some upper and lower bounds for myself. Was at 27% cash before these purchases. 

Edited October 10, 2025 by Pellom

[MungerWunger]

nibbles to TOI and TVK

[StevieV]

On 10/7/2025 at 2:59 PM, Junior R said:

yeah APO is better buy based on risk vs owl...I did added APO last week...I am also looking to add more PAX if it drops more

 

On 10/7/2025 at 2:57 PM, Red Lion said:

I've been playing with the idea of adding to OWL at these levels too. I feel more comfortable with the risk profile of APO at this price though. 

 

I also view it this way - APO > OWL, but how do you think of the business model and structure of OWL vis-a-vis risk?  Inherently it's a pretty safe structure to have locked up capital and take a percentage fee.  

 

This is what Apollo has been saying about competitors: "And I think a pure third-party business, heads you win, tails you win, hopefully the client does well, we think that's going to be a much more robust alignment to our business over time."  (Zelter - September 16th).

 

[Junior R]

17 minutes ago, StevieV said:

 

 

I also view it this way - APO > OWL, but how do you think of the business model and structure of OWL vis-a-vis risk?  Inherently it's a pretty safe structure to have locked up capital and take a percentage fee.  

 

This is what Apollo has been saying about competitors: "And I think a pure third-party business, heads you win, tails you win, hopefully the client does well, we think that's going to be a much more robust alignment to our business over time."  (Zelter - September 16th).

 

OWL doesn't have to much history thats why I would keep this position very small

[Spekulatius]

Added to RELY, AZE, BNTGY. New positions on EMN and FBIN.

[Luke]

Im fishing for China again

[EgonKuhn]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Added to RELY, AZE, BNTGY. New positions on EMN and FBIN.

FBIN looks interesting. Would you mind starting a thread and briefly introducing it? They seem to have made quite a few changes to the company over the past decade without really being rewarded by the markets. Have you discovered a specific reason for this reluctance?

 

Is there a specific reason for choosing EMN in the (specialty) chemicals sector? The entire sector seems to have been pretty much bombed out these days. What scares me a little here are the deliberately created overcapacities in China that are being ruthlessly pushed into the market. Is EMN perhaps not so badly affected here?

[Spekulatius]

The insider cluster buy is why like EMN on the chemical sector. EMN is more special chemistry than let’s say $DOW. EMN is strong into recycling /circular processes and while most of their production is in the US, about 60% of their revenue are generated in foreign counties. So they have to deal with Chinese composition, depending on where they export to. I do like them much better than European chemical companies though.

 

 

 

[EgonKuhn]

Thanks. I read about these first purchases since 2018. And I share your position regarding European competitors.

[Trophicdynamics]

Sify the only Indian Datacenter company that is available to purchase at the moment, they also have a large Marketshare approximately 15%. Tailwinds include large captive domestic market (1.4 billion domestic consumer market), deploying technologically advanced datacenters in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, low starting valuation, head start over domestic competitors. Leading player in South India, majority of Indian tech industry is located in South. Domestic market is the only large economy in world that is growing at a rapid pace (6-7 percent year over year). Economy is not trade dependent but rather consumer driven (US tarriffs can only slow not derail growth). 

[Cod Liver Oil]

More Bollore. It looks like a bond in an appreciating currency with a free call attached.

Edited October 13, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Saluki]

On Friday I got assigned a $78 put that I sold on Crox. It opened today over that price (and I'm avoiding margin trading now) so I sold it and still got to keep the premium from the put  

 

I added some PYPL (still building a position) and bought a couple of options on PYPL and VG exp 2028. 

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

More Bollore. It looks like a bond in an appreciating currency with a free call attached.

I would say that there are two free calls attached, except that you are short them.  a) to the bollore family; b) to the French tax authorities

[Cod Liver Oil]

HA!!!!!! @Marco Van Basten we own Bollore/Odet in equal parts I am happy to own the surviving entity for the long term and will be ok with a squeeze premium, should it happen, on the rest. Are you referring to taxation on a future UMG spin as well? Have owned the bulk of the position since Covid.

Edited October 13, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

HA!!!!!! @Marco Van Basten we own Bollore/Odet in equal parts I am happy to own the surviving entity for the long term and will be ok with a squeeze premium, should it happen, on the rest. Are you referring to taxation on a future UMG spin as well? Have owned the bulk of the position since Covid.

Look, if you get a 100% premium vs today's price in a year, you'd be happy.  If you get 100% premium vs today's price in a decade, you'd be unhappy.  My problem is many-fold:  I am not sure that I like the assets (no particular insight into UMG), I do not trust Bollore and it is not clear to me that we are aligned with him (and there are tricks that can always be pulled - squeeze-out during a market collapse - March 2020, fall of 2022, fall 2008-spring 2009, and this is even before things like asset sales/purchases), and lastly French government is desperate for tax revenue.  Let me ask you this: what happens to the stock price if Vincent or kids start making capital allocation mistakes whether by accident or on purpose?

 

Generally, as you know, when you buy a holding company, you need to answer three questions:

a) At what rate will the NAV compound?

b) Will the management/controlling shareholders treat me fairly and are we aligned?

c) What will close the discount?

 

I have no answers to these three questions, hence I am not involved.  However since you are, I think this calls for foie gras tasting trip to Paris to find out....

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Actually a 100% premium in 10 years means 7% annually without NAV increasing. Now assume NAV increases by 8% annually (just to pick a reasonable number) than a 100% premium in 10 years gives you a great return.