Saluki Posted August 18, 2025 Posted August 18, 2025 16 minutes ago, dipod said: Sold some OTM puts on CROX expiring this week. Premiums are quite good. Risk-reward on assignment/no assignment seems reasonable to me. Ditto, sold some CROX puts expiring next week. You get a nice premium in 2027 puts, but puts that are ATM and a week or so out, are selling for over $1.50, so you can keep recycling that cash if you can do it every couple of weeks and it makes more sense than long dated puts. With the long-dated puts, I don't mind writing them on things that I wouldn't mind owning, like CPNG. I closed a couple this morning that I bought in Nov/Dec last year and expire in 2026. Up 42% and I woudn't have minded if I got them at the strike price. CROX is something I already own and like, so I don't mind selling puts on it. I'm still dipping my toe in puts/calls so take it with a grain of salt.
dipod Posted August 18, 2025 Posted August 18, 2025 2 hours ago, Saluki said: Ditto, sold some CROX puts expiring next week. You get a nice premium in 2027 puts, but puts that are ATM and a week or so out, are selling for over $1.50, so you can keep recycling that cash if you can do it every couple of weeks and it makes more sense than long dated puts. With the long-dated puts, I don't mind writing them on things that I wouldn't mind owning, like CPNG. I closed a couple this morning that I bought in Nov/Dec last year and expire in 2026. Up 42% and I woudn't have minded if I got them at the strike price. CROX is something I already own and like, so I don't mind selling puts on it. I'm still dipping my toe in puts/calls so take it with a grain of salt. One can definitely get burned sometimes but being able to keep the premium while earning a decent yield (over the current risk free rate), is attractive. If things go kaput, well I get the stock at a nice discount and minimize my downside somewhat. Being careful with selection is important though. I would pretty much never puts on a stock I would not want to own for the long haul.
Paarslaars Posted August 19, 2025 Posted August 19, 2025 Finished switching my MSTR position to Metaplanet. More upside due to higher yield, geographical advantage and top notch management. Still think MSTR will do well but I am convinced Metaplanet will do better.
Kizion Posted August 19, 2025 Posted August 19, 2025 On 8/15/2025 at 8:08 AM, Onefoothurdles said: SBI Holdings (8473.JP) - runs one of Japan's top neobank and brokerage platforms - at the forefront of digital assets and tokenized securities in Japan - trades ~1 x bv, single digit P/E - most direct public market exposure to Ripple and XRP - Owns ~9% of Ripple - worth $2.3bn at last mark - Post Ripple's case dismissal with the SEC, XRP is now positioned as the only US crypto with explicit legal clarity - If Ripple IPOs, it could be historic in size - possibly larger than Saudi Aramco's $298b raise Thank you for the information, very helpful to start!
LC Posted August 19, 2025 Posted August 19, 2025 7 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Finished switching my MSTR position to Metaplanet. More upside due to higher yield, geographical advantage and top notch management. Still think MSTR will do well but I am convinced Metaplanet will do better. I am just a spectator here but it is a curiosity because the business model seems unique. My question is how do you measure progress/success of these companies/business models?
Spekulatius Posted August 19, 2025 Posted August 19, 2025 I fail to see anything unique about bitcoin treasury co’s and I have no clue what their “yield” might be. They will all trade below NAV eventually.
Eldad Posted August 19, 2025 Posted August 19, 2025 4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I fail to see anything unique about bitcoin treasury co’s and I have no clue what their “yield” might be. They will all trade below NAV eventually. As everyone and their brother starts one of these it should erode MSTR NAV premium (eventual Ponzi scheme blowup aside). This is the Chanos short thesis. Seems to be happening.
Paarslaars Posted August 19, 2025 Posted August 19, 2025 (edited) 3 hours ago, LC said: I am just a spectator here but it is a curiosity because the business model seems unique. My question is how do you measure progress/success of these companies/business models? Typical metrics are BTC yield or days to cover mNAV. Basically why would any of these companies trade at a premium to their BTC holdings (mNAV)? Well they need to be able to increase BTC/share, this way mNAV per share goes up higher than the BTC value alone and this makes it worth holding a bitcoin treasury company over just bitcoin. BTC yield defines the % of BTC per share added and days to cover mNAV refers to the number of days needed to bring the 'premium to mNAV' to 0 (assuming share price remains stable). Taking Metaplanet as an example: They double their BTC holdings roughly every 60 days, above you can see how accretively this was to the BTC/share metric. This year alone BTC per share has gone x5.8... This means if you bought Metaplanet at 5.8x mNAV and it comes crashing down to 1x mNAV which sceptics like @Spekulatius predict, you would still be breakeven after <8 months or double your investment after 5 quarters. That said, Metaplanet is currently trading at 2x mNAV (historically low) which would allow you to +/- tripple your investment after 8 months (assuming they maintain their current BTC yield). All the bears could be right in the long run about share price going towards 1x mNAV, though the short thesis is rather flawed (Chanos is an idiot You don't need an mNAV premium, as long as BTC per share goes up, eventually mNAV increases enough to wipe out the shorts even if the premium could go to 1 (which it won't as long as BTC yield >0). If BTC goes up in value alone (we are still in the bull run phase), mNAV goes up and shorts are getting squeezed. Works both ways though, if BTC goes down so does mNAV. Wouldn't want to hold these during a BTC bear year, they need solid financials to survive this. Some shorts are going long BTC, short treasury company to compensate for this. But these companies are very volatile and the cost to borrow shares is quite high (up to 200%!), if they are not right within a limited time frame, they are getting squeezed. Feel free to ask if anything is unclear but perhaps better in PM or the crypto thread so I don't polute this thread any further with my non-value investing jargon. Edited August 19, 2025 by Paarslaars
brobro777 Posted August 20, 2025 Posted August 20, 2025 Oh man I hope we get another Al Bundy flushing the toilet Bawoosh type of sell off this year, so I can buy stock index futures again I can watch old Married with Children episodes while I wait!
dwy000 Posted August 20, 2025 Posted August 20, 2025 21 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Typical metrics are BTC yield or days to cover mNAV. Basically why would any of these companies trade at a premium to their BTC holdings (mNAV)? Well they need to be able to increase BTC/share, this way mNAV per share goes up higher than the BTC value alone and this makes it worth holding a bitcoin treasury company over just bitcoin. BTC yield defines the % of BTC per share added and days to cover mNAV refers to the number of days needed to bring the 'premium to mNAV' to 0 (assuming share price remains stable). Taking Metaplanet as an example: They double their BTC holdings roughly every 60 days, above you can see how accretively this was to the BTC/share metric. This year alone BTC per share has gone x5.8... This means if you bought Metaplanet at 5.8x mNAV and it comes crashing down to 1x mNAV which sceptics like @Spekulatius predict, you would still be breakeven after <8 months or double your investment after 5 quarters. That said, Metaplanet is currently trading at 2x mNAV (historically low) which would allow you to +/- tripple your investment after 8 months (assuming they maintain their current BTC yield). All the bears could be right in the long run about share price going towards 1x mNAV, though the short thesis is rather flawed (Chanos is an idiot You don't need an mNAV premium, as long as BTC per share goes up, eventually mNAV increases enough to wipe out the shorts even if the premium could go to 1 (which it won't as long as BTC yield >0). If BTC goes up in value alone (we are still in the bull run phase), mNAV goes up and shorts are getting squeezed. Works both ways though, if BTC goes down so does mNAV. Wouldn't want to hold these during a BTC bear year, they need solid financials to survive this. Some shorts are going long BTC, short treasury company to compensate for this. But these companies are very volatile and the cost to borrow shares is quite high (up to 200%!), if they are not right within a limited time frame, they are getting squeezed. Feel free to ask if anything is unclear but perhaps better in PM or the crypto thread so I don't polute this thread any further with my non-value investing jargon. Not sure i got that entirely. In my finance mind "yield" means how much cash/earnigns your investment generates. There are no earnings here and I dont get how theyre able to keep buying more BTC. Where does the cash come from? Share sales? Debt? Why would anyone buy a share if it costs significantly more than the value of the btc it represents? If youre playing the premium to the underlying value of the BTC they own, it just looks like a levered bet. You're betting on the price of the BTC that underpins everything and then betting that the premium increases (or doesnt go down). "Yield" here seems like a poor terminology to suggest its adding value when its just BTC premium.
Saluki Posted August 20, 2025 Posted August 20, 2025 Started a small position in DEA that I may add to.
Rainier Posted August 21, 2025 Posted August 21, 2025 4 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: Bought SLNO Where do you get your ideas for all of the pharma companies you buy?
sleepydragon Posted August 21, 2025 Posted August 21, 2025 3 hours ago, Rainier said: Where do you get your ideas for all of the pharma companies you buy? 13Fs and social media:) Also one of my friend’s friend runs one of the top 10 biotech fund inspired me to study these stocks
frommi Posted August 25, 2025 Posted August 25, 2025 (edited) ES, EQNR Edited August 25, 2025 by frommi
dipod Posted August 25, 2025 Posted August 25, 2025 Sold some short term OTM puts on NVO expiring this week.
sleepydragon Posted August 26, 2025 Posted August 26, 2025 sold more etha puts after previous batches expired .
John Hjorth Posted August 27, 2025 Posted August 27, 2025 Reinvested received dividends from both NOVO B.CPH and NVO shares into NOVO B.CPH.
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