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Posted
20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The stamp duty applies to ADR shares as well.

Interesting wasn't aware of that. Good to know I'm not paying unnecessary costs so!

Posted
On 4/6/2025 at 1:47 AM, moatrep said:

If you see the income statement Oxy sales and general expenses are only 5 % of assets, chevron spends 15% and exxon 10%. Most oil companies spend around what the two oil gigants spend. Later if you grab the oil production of each company and compare by the book asset value they roughly go in line, so it is a fair comparison. Oxy full play in the permian is arguably more atractive in this macro. Oil reserves for oxy are around 10 years, chevron oil reserves are lower, around 5 years if I remeber properly. On this exxon is similar to Oxy though. At the end the enterprise value of oxy is around 80% of assets and the two oil giganst around 120%, so you have an arguably better play 30 % less. This numbers were from last month, now the ev has gone down

 

I got different numbers (lower) for oxy SG&A divided by assets. But I think comparing them to the oil majors is a mistake. The refining business isn't comparable to upstream production. 

 

Oxy's SG&A as a percentage of assets is much higher than Devon, and multiples higher than CNQ. I don't see any evidence of a cost control culture in their financials.

Posted

Strathcona

Linemar

Simpson 

Fairfax

Canadian National Railway

BRP

ATS Automation

Red Pine Exploration

 

Thinking about calling all those pooches back to the Kennel ( not yet, probably shouldn't )

 

Nike (trade)

TQQQ (trade)

Posted
9 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

Strathcona

Linemar

Simpson 

Fairfax

Canadian National Railway

BRP

ATS Automation

Red Pine Exploration

 

Thinking about calling all those pooches back to the Kennel ( not yet, probably shouldn't )

 

Nike (trade)

TQQQ (trade)

 

Sold the TQQQ, got my bounce 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

 

Sold the TQQQ, got my bounce 

 

26 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

Strathcona

Linemar

Simpson 

Fairfax

Canadian National Railway

BRP

ATS Automation

Red Pine Exploration

 

Thinking about calling all those pooches back to the Kennel ( not yet, probably shouldn't )

 

Nike (trade)

TQQQ (trade)

Sold the Nike too

Posted

Bailed out by the volatility and the brief upward spike- sold my Friday SPY purchase for a  2.75% gain.

But what the hell was I thinking? Trading is a fools errand and I suck at it.

Will this be my final lesson?

 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

Picked up some more Visa. Great company at a more reasonable price. 

 

I don't really disagree here. Visa is a great company. It's at 25x 2026E, which is "more reasonable". 

 

But when volatility heats up like this, I expect to have lost years of profits and for stuff to be a little more "slap you in the face".

 

maybe that's a dumb way to view the world, but my parents' Visa purchased in July 2024 has made 19%. I expect real downturns to make prior purchases look really dumb, to feel more pain. this could be the wrong way of viewing it though, particularly in higher nominal inflation world. 

 

 

image.png.c05d0545a1ea516e1245c3b7df9a4a9d.png

Edited by thepupil
Posted
8 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

I don't really disagree here. Visa is a great company. It's at 25x 2026E, which is "more reasonable". 

 

But when volatility heats up like this, I expect to have lost years of profits and for stuff to be a little more "slap you in the face".

 

maybe that's a dumb way to view the world, but my parents' Visa purchased in July 2024 has made 19%. I expect real downturns to make prior purchases look really dumb, to feel more pain. this could be the wrong way of viewing it though, particularly in higher nominal inflation world. 

 

 

image.png.c05d0545a1ea516e1245c3b7df9a4a9d.png

 

I really want to own Visa but it still looks too expensive to me, it hasn't dropped that much. I debated buying some but bought Amex instead. It is much cheaper on a p/e basis.

Posted (edited)

Adding to Macy call options, BABA and GOOGL.  I also shifted a part of my DC pension from MM back to the S&P500.  

Edited by ourkid8
Posted
8 minutes ago, yesman182 said:

AAP


Interesting chart and earning.  Whats the thesis?  Must be a reason why stock is a dumpster.

Posted
3 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I got different numbers (lower) for oxy SG&A divided by assets. But I think comparing them to the oil majors is a mistake. The refining business isn't comparable to upstream production. 

 

Oxy's SG&A as a percentage of assets is much higher than Devon, and multiples higher than CNQ. I don't see any evidence of a cost control culture in their financials.

Yes there are vey little  SG&A expenses if you just sell a commodity. Thus a meaningless number if your compare to it to a business that also does chemicals and refining and marketing.

Posted
19 minutes ago, Sweet said:


Interesting chart and earning.  Whats the thesis?  Must be a reason why stock is a dumpster.

My thesis is that the new management will be successful in the turn around and will make the company 1/3 as profitable as AZO and ORLY and the stock with double in the next few years. They made a few acquisitions a few years ago and never integrated them. They duplicate legacy systems and fell behind in every aspect of their business. They are selling good that don't really go bad and as inflation picks up, the inventory becomes worth more. Since new cars cost more, people are likely to repair what they have. It will be ugly the next few Q's, hopefully we start seeing positive sales data near the end of the year. 

Posted
1 hour ago, yesman182 said:

My thesis is that the new management will be successful in the turn around and will make the company 1/3 as profitable as AZO and ORLY and the stock with double in the next few years. They made a few acquisitions a few years ago and never integrated them. They duplicate legacy systems and fell behind in every aspect of their business. They are selling good that don't really go bad and as inflation picks up, the inventory becomes worth more. Since new cars cost more, people are likely to repair what they have. It will be ugly the next few Q's, hopefully we start seeing positive sales data near the end of the year. 

Thanks for the explainer

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