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Posted
11 hours ago, Parsad said:

Who at Berkshire would have pulled the trigger on a $150B+ sale of Apple like he did?

Buffet sold much of that at or below current prices though.
 

For many years, iirc was maybe 2015-2020 one of the biggest drags was having too much cash. Then in 2020 when the big opportunity came, he didn’t buy, he sold at the bottom to hoard MORE cash.
 

So yea I do wonder about post Warren BRK, but having capable folks being able to deploy capital I think it actually does OK if not better than people expect.

Posted

Exactly why I switched the kids portfolio from BRK to FFH. Buffet had half of book value in cash right now... And other than some OXY buys (well above current price) he hasn't done much with it.

Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Buffet sold much of that at or below current prices though.
 

For many years, iirc was maybe 2015-2020 one of the biggest drags was having too much cash. Then in 2020 when the big opportunity came, he didn’t buy, he sold at the bottom to hoard MORE cash.
 

So yea I do wonder about post Warren BRK, but having capable folks being able to deploy capital I think it actually does OK if not better than people expect.

 

I don't think it's an issue. Remember that Charlie Munger line about having the guts to sit in cash for years?

 

These guys will sit in cash for 5-10 years if they think it's appropriate, it's just their M.O. Who else in the world is willing to do that, especially with these sums? 

 

At least Buffett/Munger. No idea about these new guys.

 

That said - I sold down to a single "participation trophy" share of BRK-B. Sure having 300+B in cash is nice, but at 530/share I agreed the folks saying it was closer to overvalued vs. under.

Edited by LC
Posted (edited)

Flipping my Wells (had grown to ~largest position in my "fun fund") at ~ 1.5+x TBV into FCNCA at ~1.0x TBV.  

 

Probably need to buy a ton of coffee from Costco as I do not want any of that American grown coffee.

Edited by CorpRaider
Posted
7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Buffet sold much of that at or below current prices though.
 

For many years, iirc was maybe 2015-2020 one of the biggest drags was having too much cash. Then in 2020 when the big opportunity came, he didn’t buy, he sold at the bottom to hoard MORE cash.
 

So yea I do wonder about post Warren BRK, but having capable folks being able to deploy capital I think it actually does OK if not better than people expect.

 

7 hours ago, LC said:

 

I don't think it's an issue. Remember that Charlie Munger line about having the guts to sit in cash for years?

 

These guys will sit in cash for 5-10 years if they think it's appropriate, it's just their M.O. Who else in the world is willing to do that, especially with these sums? 

 

At least Buffett/Munger. No idea about these new guys.

 

That said - I sold down to a single "participation trophy" share of BRK-B. Sure having 300+B in cash is nice, but at 530/share I agreed the folks saying it was closer to overvalued vs. under.

 

I'm not saying Berkshire will be better or worse after Buffett...just saying that is there anyone there (other than Jain) who has shown a history of making big bets and has the big balls to do so.  Buffett might have missed the pandemic, but let's cut him some slack...missing 3 or 4 things (Walmart, Amazon, selling Berkshire equity, pandemic) in a 75 year career of 20% compounding...he cannot be replaced.  Cheers!

Posted (edited)

topix future.

 

cant resist a down 8% day.

 

Probably won’t hold long. 
 

💴 💴 💴 
 

Edit: made a meaningless half million yen before bedtime (but it’s fun speaking in yen)…some people

do sports gambling…I apparently day trade topix during the reGFC

Edited by thepupil
Posted
10 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Buffet sold much of that at or below current prices though.
 

For many years, iirc was maybe 2015-2020 one of the biggest drags was having too much cash. Then in 2020 when the big opportunity came, he didn’t buy, he sold at the bottom to hoard MORE cash.
 

So yea I do wonder about post Warren BRK, but having capable folks being able to deploy capital I think it actually does OK if not better than people expect.


In 2020, he sold the four airlines that had a combined value of about $10B. Completely immaterial. 
 

More importantly he was not going to be dragged into being a lender of last resort for the airlines, which would have happened had he stayed. 
 

Blame him for not buying but not for selling the airlines. Even the not buying is not worth blaming. 

Posted

Maybe once Buffet is gone, Berkshire can throw its cash around without the Warren Buffett stigma?  Isn't that the flip side, Berkshire couldn't keep the airlines because of Warren Buffet or because of Berkshire?  Or immaterial?

 

 

Posted
On 4/5/2025 at 8:36 PM, hasilp89 said:

Wouldn't buying call options make more sense then? 1000 things could go wrong with the companies you own.

It's possible to be bullish particular oil equities while having no view on the underlying commodity. With options you have to be bullish the commodity AND get the timing right. 

 

I think the number one mistake investors make with commodity companies is that they're just a bet on the underlying commodity. If you have a low reserve life, current commodity prices are hugely important as to the value of said company.

 

If you have +30 years of reserve life - and no path dependency (as in no debt/no risk of BK or dilution etc) - current year commodity prices mean very little. But in a downturn like this, they all seem to trade the same (like hell!). Which I think is a great opportunity if you can extend your timeframe. But you have to be incredibly picky IMO, because most co's are run by awful management teams acting pro-cyclical, which means they're now scrambling to survive. Others are looking to go on the offensive.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Milu said:

Added to LVMH at €500 per share. 

 

For most of you buying LVMH from North America...where are you buying it...Paris or the pink sheets?  Cheers!

Posted
4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

For most of you buying LVMH from North America...where are you buying it...Paris or the pink sheets?  Cheers!

Not sure if directed at me or others. I'm based in Europe so buying it in France. Might be better if I just bought the ADR traded in America as france applies a small stamp duty of half a percent on trades which is a bit annoying.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Milu said:

Not sure if directed at me or others. I'm based in Europe so buying it in France. Might be better if I just bought the ADR traded in America as france applies a small stamp duty of half a percent on trades which is a bit annoying.

 

Thanks Milu!  I don't see a single ADR...there seems to be a ton of codes for LVMH globally.  Cheers!

Posted
6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Thanks Milu!  I don't see a single ADR...there seems to be a ton of codes for LVMH globally.  Cheers!

I believe LVMUY is the appropriate ADR but not certain so perhaps other posters have more information.

Posted
10 minutes ago, Milu said:

I believe LVMUY is the appropriate ADR but not certain so perhaps other posters have more information.

 

Yeah, I agree that seems to be the correct one...just confirming with North American investors.  Cheers!

Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

It's also one of the companies that gets hit hardest by these tariffs I would assume.

 

Likely right, @Paarslaars,

 

I think a lot of multinationals headquartered in Europe are in the same boat as LVMH right now. I.e. Swedish Investor AB is getting beaten the crap out of it today. In short, it basically consists of a portfolio of a number of such multinationals, most of them headquartered in Sweden.

Edited by John Hjorth
Posted
1 hour ago, Milu said:

Added to LVMH at €500 per share. 

Same, added to LVMH, also to Prosus, Nestle and put an order for Fundsmith. 

Still mostly in cash/bonds position (30%+)

Posted
2 hours ago, Milu said:

Not sure if directed at me or others. I'm based in Europe so buying it in France. Might be better if I just bought the ADR traded in America as france applies a small stamp duty of half a percent on trades which is a bit annoying.

The stamp duty applies to ADR shares as well.

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