What are you buying today?

[gfp]

4 hours ago, moatrep said:

Sorry I'm quite iliterate in that aspect. Maybe I should go for that, although some levered oil company like oxy in the pandemic will be my ideal. I will search in the energy section, but yeah most likely I will buy some futures. How will you size a bet like this as an example?

 

 

I don't fully understand your thesis moatrep, but this all sounds like a money-losing trade unless you just happen to get lucky on multiple factors simultaneously.  This is a mistake a lot of young investors make and I would assume you are fairly young.

 

If this idea involves more than a tiny amount of money, just skip it and find a real business to invest in.  If you think Occidental is that business, that is fine.  But forget about the Iran / timing angle.  If you want leverage on OXY, use the 22 strike warrants as soon as the sweetened exercise window closes and they go back to trading for barely any premium outside of the forgone dividend.

 

The president wants oil to be cheap.  That's bad for business generally speaking

[Castanza]

@moatrep I suspect you might find better odds betting on March Madness matchups. 

[Spekulatius]

It looks like China buys most of the Iranian oil at large discounts most likely. They don’t care about US sanctions. My guess is that Iran would be very reluctant to give up nuclear weapons because of the Ukraine experience. Having a nuclear weapon is a much better insurance than a contract, that’s for sure.

My thinking is that Iran regards their nuclear weapon as an insurance policy much more so than as an offensive  weapon, but of course that could change. Their main adversary Israel’s had already nuclear weapons so it’s not really all that useful for attacking Israel anyways.

I don’t think this two month ultimatum has been officially confirmed.

 

For the bet, several things need to go right. First the strike on Iran needs to occur and then it needs to actually lift crude prices by a significant amount, which is not a given either.

[moatrep]

Ok yeah looks like it's not that smart, more factors than I was weighting. I will stick to good oil companies and see how it goes. Those should win in any case. Though the market is not weighting that this may be a possibility in my opinion. But playing with this is not that effort efective. 

Edited March 24, 2025 by moatrep

[Saluki]

On Friday, I was assigned on 3 puts I sold of SWBI. At these prices it looks okay, but I sold the shares and may sell a few more puts. I don't have the common, but I do have some calls. 

 

Very small adds to VG and XIFR. 

[DooDiligence]

A final sliver of NVO to top off the position. I feel like I made up for not getting all the shares I wanted back in 2016.

[coffeecaninvestor]

CNC and MGM

[WFF]

NVO

[valueventures]

Bought more Fairfax

[Castanza]

NVO, MRK, TGT, SSD, RTO, CP, FSLR, MGM, FRFHF

[DooDiligence]

Added more NVO and will probably do it again.

[WFF]

On 3/25/2025 at 10:06 PM, WFF said:

NVO

Added more NVO

[DooDiligence]

6 minutes ago, WFF said:

Added more NVO

 

Same. Shareholder meeting tomorrow and hopefully we'll see a repeat of last years share repurchase program. Also, this goes ex-dividend in a few more days and I'm reinvesting. We'll see if being greedy when others are fearful pans out.

[frommi]

started my summer put option program early. IWM, QQQ, DAX, SPY puts. Target 5x or holding to end of october.

[thowed]

@frommi Out of interest, do you do these ITM, a fair bit OTM, or a spread?  Many thanks.

[sleepydragon]

50 minutes ago, frommi said:

started my summer put option program early. IWM, QQQ, DAX, SPY puts. Target 5x or holding to end of october.

what do you mean "5x or holding"?

you mean if you are put, your exposure to the market will 5x?

[frommi]

5% out of the money, 5% of the portfolio, if the market tanks 20% they should baloon to 25% of the portfolio, so they cover all the losses. At that point the puts have become a 5-bagger, thats what i meant with the 5x. I do this every summer and have backtested this for the dax for the past 50 years, it would have resulted in small net gain and lowers the drawdowns by a lot. In some years you lose it all of course and especially the last 7 years were not that pretty to this strategy. But i won't give up

Edited March 26, 2025 by frommi

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, frommi said:

5% out of the money, 5% of the portfolio, if the market tanks 20% they should baloon to 25% of the portfolio, so they cover all the losses. At that point the puts have become a 5-bagger, thats what i meant with the 5x. I do this every summer and have backtested this for the dax for the past 50 years, it would have resulted in small net gain and lowers the drawdowns by a lot. In some years you lose it all of course and especially the last 7 years were not that pretty to this strategy. But i won't give up

 

Interesting approach. I feel like this would make a lot of sense inside tax deferred accounts especially if one was close to retirement age.

 

I've been thinking of doing the inverse to this in my retirement accounts which would be to sell off stock holdings and then write weekly OTM put options on some of my larger underlying holdings (that have weekly options) and possibly using indexes for the remainder or just holding onto my smaller cap/foreign investments. 

[Luke]

I bought a tracker in MediaTek

[Gregmal]

Started ULTA last few days

[cubsfan]

Averaged down hard on MGM.

[Junior R]

4 hours ago, frommi said:

5% out of the money, 5% of the portfolio, if the market tanks 20% they should baloon to 25% of the portfolio, so they cover all the losses. At that point the puts have become a 5-bagger, thats what i meant with the 5x. I do this every summer and have backtested this for the dax for the past 50 years, it would have resulted in small net gain and lowers the drawdowns by a lot. In some years you lose it all of course and especially the last 7 years were not that pretty to this strategy. But i won't give up

What was the cost in % on whole portfolio.... .5%

[giulio]

EVO, PRM

[frommi]

7 hours ago, Junior R said:

What was the cost in % on whole portfolio.... .5%

What do you mean? I put 5% of my portfolio into december puts in april, thats the strategy.

[DooDiligence]

More NVO.