What are you buying today?

[winjitsu]

9 hours ago, mananainvesting said:

Bought $FEC.TO - Odd Lot Tender Opportunity. 

 

Any US-based odd-lot maximizers (multiple accounts) know the rules around these Canadian tenders? Would love to know if I can use the US OTC $feccf and experience using different brokers like Fidelity, Schwab, Etrade etc. Happy to share notes

[Kizion]

On 9/6/2024 at 12:50 AM, Spekulatius said:

Bought a starter in MBLY and CELH. Added a bit to ATKR.

 

For MBLY Intel selling should be good news longer term.

 

MBLY is an interesting company - do you know the reasons for the very significant inventory increase in past quarters? 

[Blake Hampton]

I bought a relatively large stake in OXY yesterday. Some of my reasons:

 

- High possibility of future inflation, with energy being a good hedge

- 70% of their reserves are developed which means that the cash flow is quite a bit higher than their reported earnings

- Current geopolitical conflicts and domestic perception of oil will only make the liquid gold more valuable IMO. I do not believe that the transition away from fossil fuels will be as easy as some make it out to be.

- Their drilling style allows for quick changes in how much they want to produce. They can increase or decrease production quickly in response to price fluctuations. Volatility in the price of oil might be beneficial for them.

 

^ These are just a couple of my reasons but the math works for how much they are currently selling for.

 

 

[Dinar]

6 hours ago, winjitsu said:

Any US-based odd-lot maximizers (multiple accounts) know the rules around these Canadian tenders? Would love to know if I can use the US OTC $feccf and experience using different brokers like Fidelity, Schwab, Etrade etc. Happy to share notes

Check Canadian withholding taxes.  Sometimes these are treated as dividends and a non-retirement account will get hosed.

[KJP]

Clarus (CLAR)

[rogermunibond]

Subprime auto delinquencies going up.  $ALLY had a bad call.  Bringing down KMX, CACC, CVNA, and even the dealership groups - AN, LAD, etc.

 

First inning for auto loan write offs.

 

However, mortgage delinquencies not affected.  It's a bifurcated economy.

[73 Reds]

8 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Subprime auto delinquencies going up.  $ALLY had a bad call.  Bringing down KMX, CACC, CVNA, and even the dealership groups - AN, LAD, etc.

 

First inning for auto loan write offs.

 

However, mortgage delinquencies not affected.  It's a bifurcated economy.

I think it is more reflective of the "haves" and the "have nots".  Auto financing appeals to folks who cannot afford to pay cash for a vehicle, the rates tend to be high and the asset depreciates the minute you leave the dealer lot.  Home mortgage rates for most current borrowers are historically low whereas it might cost some homeowners more to rent and/or sell and repurchase another residence and the underlying asset continues to appreciate in value.  

[Gregmal]

Post GFC you can’t really get your name on a property unless you can really demonstrate being able to afford it. Any idiot can get approved for a car loan. That’s the difference. So many poor or imagine sensitive people and frauds driving around in cars they can’t afford. I don’t know anyone who’s in a house they can’t afford.

[Red Lion]

Had some cash in my 401k and added some shares of OWL. 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Many busted growth stocks: LULU, NKE, SBUX, PDD, ABNB. I bought some LULU and ABNB and could see making Chesky large under the right circumstances. He was a competitive bodybuilder and it is well known that CEOs who deadlift have superior returns. I actually think there is greatness lurking beneath the growing pains. Yes, I have worked around the ABNB platform several times myself but they invented and dominate the category. You have to get the timing right with cyclical growth companies but I think we have the right owner/operator running a powerful toll booth type monster.

Edited September 10 by Cod Liver Oil

[ICUMD]

Googl

[Sweet]

53 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Many busted growth stocks: LULU, NKE, SBUX, PDD, ABNB. I bought some LULU and ABNB and could see making Chesky large under the right circumstances. He was a competitive bodybuilder and it is well known that CEOs who deadlift have superior returns. I actually think there is greatness lurking beneath the growing pains. Yes, I have worked around the ABNB platform several times myself but they invented and dominate the category. You have to get the timing right with cyclical growth companies but I think we have the right owner/operator running a powerful toll booth type monster.

 

I like ABNB too, but think the earnings last year flatter the company and makes it look cheaper than it actually is.

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Sweet I agree and think the stock goes lower from here but has the DNA of a great investment when the stars align. Could make it large below 100 if Chesky lubricates the sticking points. 

[KPO]

2 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@Sweet I agree and think the stock goes lower from here but has the DNA of a great investment when the stars align. Could make it large below 100 if Chesky lubricates the sticking points. 

I think it’s one of those high quality companies like COST, RSG / WM, and AOS that really never look cheap, so you just have to start nibbling when it’s at the lower end of the range. I’ll make it a larger position sub $100, but started a position just under $111 when they reported recently. That said, I don’t love the voting arrangement in light of recent minority shareholder abuse in the media space, but I suppose the same argument could be made for not buying Alphabet. 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

Subprime auto delinquencies going up.  $ALLY had a bad call.  Bringing down KMX, CACC, CVNA, and even the dealership groups - AN, LAD, etc.

 

First inning for auto loan write offs.

 

However, mortgage delinquencies not affected.  It's a bifurcated economy.

Ally has been very aggressive in the auto loan space moving less credit worthy customers for few years for better NIM. Those chickens seem to come home to roost.

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, Kizion said:

 

MBLY is an interesting company - do you know the reasons for the very significant inventory increase in past quarters? 

Most semiconductor cos have rising inventory which started from very low levels in 2022- This is because the product is readily available and the customers then have become much more likely just to order  just time. We know how this ends on the other side of a downturn.

Edited September 11 by Spekulatius

[BG2008]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Most semiconductor cos have rising inventory which started from very low levels in 2022- This is because the product is readily available and the customers then have become much more likely just to order  just time. We know how this ends on the other side of a downturn.

 

Love it when Spekulatius speaks the truth 

[winjitsu]

23 hours ago, Dinar said:

Check Canadian withholding taxes.  Sometimes these are treated as dividends and a non-retirement account will get hosed.

 

Did not know this and went down a rabbit hole. US investors can buy the OTC stock and tender the same on Fidelity and IBKR as I learned. 

 

For this particular one, Paid In Capital is $14.98 and tender price is $12.00 so it seems it should be safe from out-sized taxes (just 15% I think, versus if the PIC is lower than the tender price, the entire difference is treated as the dividend). 

[mistakenpoint]

On 9/3/2024 at 4:05 PM, mistakenpoint said:

Bought some Berkshire puts in the morning.

exited this position and bought some glasf and googl with the proceeds.

[gfp]

10 minutes ago, mistakenpoint said:

exited this position and bought some glasf and googl with the proceeds.

 

Yeah me too - I used the November 410 puts and they worked out great.  Sold the last of them today.  Which contracts did you use?

[mistakenpoint]

5 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Yeah me too - I used the November 410 puts and they worked out great.  Sold the last of them today.  Which contracts did you use?

Nice! I used the Oct-25 425 puts.

[KPO]

Starters in DG and RTO

[Gregmal]

ABNB and RTO 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Chesky has a very good approach. In tennis, we would say he has soft hands. IMO he is a creative problem solver who will make it work.

Edited September 11 by Cod Liver Oil

[StevieV]

On 9/10/2024 at 3:46 PM, Red Lion said:

Had some cash in my 401k and added some shares of OWL. 

 

No surprise to you, but I think $OWL in the 16s is attractive.  My best guess is that they fall a bit short of their $1/share dividend goal for next year, but I think they'll get to at least something like 92 or 96 cents.  That's a 5-6% yield for next year for a company with very healthy growth, significant "permanent" capital, mostly steady fee, and a decent variety of strategies.