What are you buying today?

[backtothebeach]

9 hours ago, dpetrescu said:

I think I agree there. I’m using Revit every day for work. I can say it still has a long very long runway - as contractors and builders adopt it. Then product manufacturers are adopting it. And owners adopt it and maintain it for maintenance, records, and future renovations expansions. And public agencies still have pre-2006 2-d Autocad standards, they’re slowly adopting it….very slowly. Surprising how slow the BIM/3d adoption is considering its old tech by now for public agencies.

 

the curveball is AI. I can imagine AI giving Autodesk either a bigger advantage or maybe risk of taking share away from residential and small commercial firms.

 

Problem with ADSK is valuation with low growth, and the recent internal accounting investigation casting doubt on management. Maybe a nothingburger, maybe more bad news to follow.

Grossly overpaid management probably, have you looked at SBC?

 

I had stupidly sold some $250 puts on this one, figuring they are solid with an entrenched product, without looking closely at the company (when will I ever learn???). Just closed them out first thing this morning, cutting losses. Maybe this will mark the bottom, lol.

[DooDiligence]

10 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

 

Clients reducing headcounts isn't good for you when your product is priced as $-per-seat

 

Possibly, but price increases could easily offset. This is a small expense for an engineering firm in comparison to the revenues they bring in. Your point is valid nonetheless.

[competitive-advantage]

I just bought Lululemon Athletica for my own portfolio and as a gift for a teenage family member

Edited April 19, 2024 by competitive-advantage

[DooDiligence]

42 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Problem with ADSK is valuation with low growth, and the recent internal accounting investigation casting doubt on management. Maybe a nothingburger, maybe more bad news to follow.

Grossly overpaid management probably, have you looked at SBC?

 

I had stupidly sold some $250 puts on this one, figuring they are solid with an entrenched product, without looking closely at the company (when will I ever learn???). Just closed them out first thing this morning, cutting losses. Maybe this will mark the bottom, lol.

 

Valuation and low growth are legit concerns wrt potential returns. This a mission critical software and piracy seems to be the biggest hindrance to growth. There's the possibility of incrementally onboarding accounts running pirated versions. Probably won't produce dramatic increases any time soon though.

 

https://schnitgercorp.com/2020/03/09/autodesks-anti-piracy-efforts-finally-pay-off-oh-and-the-looming-end-of-maintenance/

 

Here's a small sampling of pirating efforts:

 

 

===

 

BIM and facilities management seems like a good growth avenue. I particularly like the Innovyze acquisition.

 

===

 

edit: not buying today. I already own enough ADSK (3.6%).

Edited April 18, 2024 by DooDiligence

[dpetrescu]

4 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

 

Valuation and low growth are legit concerns wrt potential returns. This a mission critical software and piracy seems to be the biggest hindrance to growth. There's the possibility of incrementally onboarding accounts running pirated versions. Probably won't produce dramatic increases any time soon though.

 

https://schnitgercorp.com/2020/03/09/autodesks-anti-piracy-efforts-finally-pay-off-oh-and-the-looming-end-of-maintenance/

 

Here's a small sampling of pirating efforts:

 

 

===

 

BIM and facilities management seems like a good growth avenue. I particularly like the Innovyze acquisition.

 

===

 

edit: not buying today. I already own enough ADSK (3.6%).

All SAAS companies haven’t truly recovered and haven’t 

 

5 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Problem with ADSK is valuation with low growth, and the recent internal accounting investigation casting doubt on management. Maybe a nothingburger, maybe more bad news to follow.

Grossly overpaid management probably, have you looked at SBC?

 

I had stupidly sold some $250 puts on this one, figuring they are solid with an entrenched product, without looking closely at the company (when will I ever learn???). Just closed them out first thing this morning, cutting losses. Maybe this will mark the bottom, lol.

interesting you were shorting

 

all SAAS companies haven’t really participated in the market boom of the last couple years. 
 

definitely some valid concerns and risks. I just keep buying ADSK for the last decade plus just because of their unique competitive advantage. Just got a bunch of 2 year LEAPs art the dip this morning

 

im sure everyone here is tired of me talking about ADSK :).

[brobro777]

Scuttle Blurb had an analysis of ADSK years ago that I thought was decent:

 

https://www.scuttleblurb.com/category/adsk-autodesk/

[ourkid8]

Added to my BTI and BABA position. 

Edited April 19, 2024 by ourkid8

[Lance]

ADM, BTI and MSB

 

Thanks

Lance

[Saluki]

Trimmed some SWBI and added to NTDOY and BTI.  

[Malmqky]

Haven’t done anything in months now, getting bored. So to scratch that itch, bought a little more Hershey, little Nintendo.

[Viking]

Canfor (CFP.TO) at C$14.35. Time to scratch my (monthly?) lumber itch. 
 

Market cap is $1.7 billion. Net debt is a positive $300 million (net cash position). So enterprise value is about $1.4 billion.
 

They also have +$900 million of duties on deposit. This is worth something.

 

The stock is selling off aggressively because interest/mortgage rates have moved higher. 

Edited April 19, 2024 by Viking

[DooDiligence]

3% position in Hershey. Anchored to a price now and would buy more if it dropped.

 

HSY + DPZ + NVO = $

[Luke]

I'll build a 3x KWEB ETF position on monday with a planned allocation of 3-5% of my PF. 

 

If we hit 2021 Valuations again in the next 5 years its gonna be close to a 10-bagger. Valuation in China are nuts and company quality is at least as high in the US, KWEB is cheap: 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

5 minutes ago, Luca said:

I'll build a 3x KWEB ETF position on monday with a planned allocation of 3-5% of my PF. 

 

If we hit 2021 Valuations again in the next 5 years its gonna be close to a 10-bagger. Valuation in China are nuts and company quality is at least as high in the US, KWEB is cheap: 

 

 

 

 

Btw, these slides are a bit older. Tencent got cheaper, PDD grew a lot and is now at 10-15x earnings. JD.com buying back, Net-ease, Baba, Meituan...

Edited April 20, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

And they all have very large cash positions on their balance sheet on top. 

[Luke]

I hope I am not catching the falling knife china and we end up 50% lower next year due to the crisis getting even worse...still I can not resist. 

[Spekulatius]

These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x  leverage. 

Edited April 20, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Luke]

20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x  leverage. 

Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. 

Edited April 20, 2024 by Luca

[KJP]

1 minute ago, Luca said:

Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. 

 

That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to.  3x funds rebalance on a daily basis.  So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index.  A simple example:

 

Buy at 100

Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115.

Day 2: index goes back to 100.  This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%.  115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57.  The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). 

 

This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets.  

[Spekulatius]

Just now, KJP said:

 

That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to.  3x funds rebalance on a daily basis.  So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index.  A simple example:

 

Buy at 100

Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115.

Day 2: index goes back to 100.  This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%.  115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57.  The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). 

 

This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets.  

[sleepydragon]

19 minutes ago, Luca said:

Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. 

if you buy it using margins , it will outperforms the 3x etfs. The 3x ETFs are a ripoff and a big profit source for banks trading it. You basically being front run because people know how much the index must buy at eod especially when there’s large movements . 

Edited April 20, 2024 by sleepydragon

[Red Lion]

On 4/20/2024 at 11:20 AM, KJP said:

 

That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to.  3x funds rebalance on a daily basis.  So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index.  A simple example:

 

Buy at 100

Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115.

Day 2: index goes back to 100.  This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%.  115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57.  The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). 

 

This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets.  

I experimented with a trade several years back where you went short on both long and short etf’s and then tried to keep them balanced to try to capture the time decay, don’t remember exactly what happened but I think I closed out with a small profit. 

[Luke]

Starter in 3x KWEB 

 

ISIN:XS2399370043

[KJP]

Solitron Devices

Thomasville Bancshares

[Spekulatius]

Picked up some CNHI shares this AM on the dunk related to the CEO change.