What are you buying today?

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Apple Card/Apple Pay is a gorgeous system. Does anyone else use it?

I have an iPhone 13 Pro and i use Apple Pay whenever i go to any store. Have 4 Cards on Apple Pay and my Wallets are all digital. Great System but we also have google pay, Samsung pay etc.

[RetroRanger]

More Haier D-Shares 690D.DE 

[competitive-advantage]

16 hours ago, Luca said:

Buffett liked it even a bit higher. My concern is how much innovation they can pull off to gather more market share but one might not even need that. Just growing in the other markets/emerging markets+buybacks should reward you. Services are also growing. What is your thesis longterm? How do you see apples future?

Thanks for asking
 

Their focus on the customers will make them sustain and grew their position in the future.
I had iPhones for many years and recently bought a Macbook Air. That made me realize how good the products really are. My photos and passwords are stored in the cloud, so that combined with the user experience there is no chance I’m changing to another brand.

 

There may be stronger competive advantages out there, but within my circle of competence they’re hard to find. I will do my best anyway

Edited January 4, 2023 by competitive-advantage

[Luke]

34 minutes ago, competitive-advantage said:

Thanks for asking
 

Their focus on the customers will make them sustain and grew their position in the future.
I had iPhones for many years and recently bought a Macbook Air. That made me realize how good the products really are. My photos and passwords are stored in the cloud, so that combined with the user experience there is no chance I’m changing to another brand.

 

There may be stronger competive advantages out there, but within my circle of competence they’re hard to find. I will do my best anyway

Yeah, its a great eco system and i agree that with mobile phones and laptops apple has and makes the best product. Desktop pcs i still prefer my own windows machine. Now you also have the cloud, services, apple music refining the whole eco system even more. Still, I think PE of 20 is an attractive entry for sure, doesnt have to grow that much to be rewarded/minimizing downside. 

[Cod Liver Oil]

The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions. Google is more indispensable than fun, but also fantastic (if ChatGPT lights a fire under their ass, so much the better). A pretty good line up at these prices. I think you can own these and have time to pick up your kids at school every day. Please pitch other contenders for best customer experience.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, competitive-advantage said:

Thanks for asking
 

Their focus on the customers will make them sustain and grew their position in the future.
I had iPhones for many years and recently bought a Macbook Air. That made me realize how good the products really are. My photos and passwords are stored in the cloud, so that combined with the user experience there is no chance I’m changing to another brand.

 

There may be stronger competive advantages out there, but within my circle of competence they’re hard to find. I will do my best anyway

 

Apple Silicon has also given them a new competitive advantage, especially in laptops where its combination of performance and low power usage is way ahead of Intel/AMD. But it remains to be seen how long they can keep their lead, last time they went their own way with processors (PowerPC) they couldn't keep up with x86 over time. They still haven't been able to scale Apple Silicon to Mac Pros yet.

[crs223]

3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions. Google is more indispensable than fun, but also fantastic (if ChatGPT lights a fire under their ass, so much the better). A pretty good line up at these prices. I think you can own these and have time to pick up your kids at school every day. Please pitch other contenders for best customer experience.

 

I love your comment.  especially the reframe of ChatGPT as a catalyst for google innovation.

 

What do you mean by “still have time to pick up the kids”?  Sorry i don't get it.

[Red Lion]

Bought back all my puts except BX.  
 

GOOGL

MED

ESS

AVB

[Cod Liver Oil]

@crs223i just mean you can own that stuff and not angst about trading it and end your workday at 3 to pick up the kids at school. My friend at IBM confirmed that the AI space is Alphabet’s to lose. I hope they are losing some sleep over it. YouTube is kicking ass and cloud also growing well. Clearly a great company with a moderate to severe case of complacency. Ironic justice served as MSFT is  tanking as it announces the Bing/Chatgpt combination.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[competitive-advantage]

5 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Apple Silicon has also given them a new competitive advantage, especially in laptops where its combination of performance and low power usage is way ahead of Intel/AMD. But it remains to be seen how long they can keep their lead, last time they went their own way with processors (PowerPC) they couldn't keep up with x86 over time. They still haven't been able to scale Apple Silicon to Mac Pros yet.

Thanks. I have no idea how this will affect sales. When I buy tech products it's not because the device is the fastest. I will do some more research about this development and which factors customers value highest, so I'm aware of that.

Edited January 4, 2023 by competitive-advantage

[Red Lion]

Starter position in AAPL about 1.5% of my investment portfolio. I don't think it's a great valuation right now, but I made a mistake selling AAPL many years ago after a nice short term return. I plan to hold this long term and add a lot if we get a pullback to a significantly lower valuation. 

[Saluki]

I sold some FFH in my retirement account and bought Fairfax India.  Bought some STNG and OXY in my taxable account.  

[Red Lion]

Added APO. 

[Luke]

6 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions. Google is more indispensable than fun, but also fantastic (if ChatGPT lights a fire under their ass, so much the better). A pretty good line up at these prices. I think you can own these and have time to pick up your kids at school every day. Please pitch other contenders for best customer experience.

Customer experience for Apple i agree, Nintendo does fine, Disney made some huge errors regarding their IP and i dont know if going into streaming was the right move but both nintendo and disney have strong IP that will stay for decades imo. If the current marketcap stays with us is another story and i am not yet willing to bet on disney, nintendo looks good but havent done enough DD to enter a position. 

 

I have read a decent take on alphabets chatgpt strategy aswell, i dont know how valuable your friend is as a ressource, might be valuable, but it could very well be that alphabet has an even better product but is just not coming out with it yet. They dont have to, chatgpt is funny but it does not replace google search or anything else for me. Alphabet can just come out late after everybody revealed their hand and show the royal flush: a more refined AI integrated in the search engine and the browser everybody loves+their hardware. I am not too worried since they spent a lot of money in that space already

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Lucato clarify, when my friend at IBM (head of a large division) says AI is Alphabet’s to lose, he means they own the space and need to royally fuck up to lose their lead. I agree with you that they are strategically playing coy with their capabilities. 

[Luke]

11 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@Lucato clarify, when my friend at IBM (head of a large division) says AI is Alphabet’s to lose, he means they own the space and need to royally fuck up to lose their lead. I agree with you that they are strategically playing coy with their capabilities. 

Got it, sorry, i am from germany, my english is good but those metaphors i sometimes dont get  Yeah, thats what i am thinking too.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Haven't really followed the name, but they're experiencing a bank run post-FTX collapse despite being a traditional bank where deposits are FDIC insured. 

 

Down 40% today alone. Much more over the last several months.

 

Betting that it's a knee-jerk reaction, that they'll survive, and will be well positioned in the future.

 

Also recognizing that a takeout either from another bank OR billionaire crypto investor Brendan Blumer (who controls ~17% of shares) might be on the table. 

 

[longlake95]

A little add to HPS.A 

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Haven't really followed the name, but they're experiencing a bank run post-FTX collapse despite being a traditional bank where deposits are FDIC insured. 

 

Down 40% today alone. Much more over the last several months.

 

Betting that it's a knee-jerk reaction, that they'll survive, and will be well positioned in the future.

 

Also recognizing that a takeout either from another bank OR billionaire crypto investor Brendan Blumer (who controls ~17% of shares) might be on the table. 

 

feels like a binary play no?

[Spekulatius]

Bought a bit on Onex from BX sales proceeds. Need to do some more research on that one. Also did the @thepupil trade with a starter in both ESS and CPT multi family Reits. Small add to GOOGL for good measure as well.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

45 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

feels like a binary play no?

 

That's why I'm using options - and OTM ones at that. 

 

The run is largely based on fear - deposits are FDIC insured. So far, credit losses have been minimal. 

 

Run seems predicated largely on concern over continued fall-out from FTX dragging other firms down (which hasn't resulted in credit losses according to the firm) and if they played role in the fraud that occurred at FTX (which I think unlikely, but possible). 

 

In either case, deposits are safe so I'd think eventually they'll return. Taking a hard hit now to manage liquidity, but there's no reason currently that deposits should be leaving at the rate they are and I imagine will begin to return once things have calmed. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[lnofeisone]

3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

That's why I'm using options - and OTM ones at that. 

 

The run is largely based on fear - deposits are FDIC insured. So far, credit losses have been minimal. 

 

Run seems predicated largely on concern over continued fall-out from FTX dragging other firms down (which hasn't resulted in credit losses according to the firm) and if they played role in the fraud that occurred at FTX (which I think unlikely, but possible). 

 

In either case, deposits are safe so I'd think eventually they'll return. Taking a hard hit now to manage liquidity, but there's no reason currently that deposits should be leaving at the rate they are and I imagine will begin to return once things have calmed. 

I love binary plays (when they work out). Any thoughts on them being liable for FTX and/or fines that might get imposed by the regulators? Just has a feel of dead money for 2+ years.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I love binary plays (when they work out). Any thoughts on them being liable for FTX and/or fines that might get imposed by the regulators? Just has a feel of dead money for 2+ years.

 

Hard to say.

 

But seeing as they're a traditional bank with traditional risk controls/regulations/auditors/etc., I'd be willing to bet that they're not culpable and any fraud at FTX/Alameda was FTX/Alameda alone and that they didn't aid or abet it. 

 

 

[lnofeisone]

13 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Hard to say.

 

But seeing as they're a traditional bank with traditional risk controls/regulations/auditors/etc., I'd be willing to bet that they're not culpable and any fraud at FTX/Alameda was FTX/Alameda alone and that they didn't aid or abet it. 

 

 

thanks for the idea. will look into it a bit more.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Haven't really followed the name, but they're experiencing a bank run post-FTX collapse despite being a traditional bank where deposits are FDIC insured. 

 

Down 40% today alone. Much more over the last several months.

 

Betting that it's a knee-jerk reaction, that they'll survive, and will be well positioned in the future.

 

Also recognizing that a takeout either from another bank OR billionaire crypto investor Brendan Blumer (who controls ~17% of shares) might be on the table. 

 

The reason for the run doesn’t matter. They hold a bunch of securities , some HTM and some MTM that are have a fair value below the price they are held on thr balance sheet. If there is a run in the bank, they need to sell the securities and realize the losses and this will deplete their capital.

 

I think SI is probably done here, I don’t think they will survive this. They also have liabilities from money laundering etc charges that are unknown and likely one of the causes of the run on the bank. FWIW, all these banks associated with crypto that have taken deposits have huge problems.

 

Thats where regulators need to look to make sure that crypto does not impact the banking system. These banks like SI are on-ramps to crypto ecosystem and with crypto deflating there is ann impact on those FDIC insured banks.