Castanza Posted November 14, 2022 Posted November 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Bought a few shares of $TSN this AM. Earnings seemed OK in the grand scheme of things. Yeah, still some lingering supply chain issues and the chicken margins might come down but who cares in the long run. Revenue is still solid and overall margins look fine. They managed through a terrible few years and now are trading at a discount to peers. Yeah meat sales are down across the board but so is pretty much everything else in retail/consumer. 5-6x looks cheap enough to me to slowly build a position. Dividend looks safe sitting at a 15% payout ratio.
rohitc99 Posted November 14, 2022 Posted November 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Few more VAL warrants I have been looking at TDW and VAL too. any reason why you picked the warrants over the common ?
Gregmal Posted November 14, 2022 Posted November 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, rohitc99 said: I have been looking at TDW and VAL too. any reason why you picked the warrants over the common ? Way more leverage and 7 years to double seems mightily doable
Red Lion Posted November 15, 2022 Posted November 15, 2022 Averaged up on FRFHF and rolled over a big chunk of t bills that matured today to 2/28 t bills at 4.2 ytm.
matthew2129 Posted November 16, 2022 Posted November 16, 2022 5 hours ago, fareastwarriors said: + $msge +1
Luke Posted November 16, 2022 Posted November 16, 2022 (edited) Added a tiny bit of meta Edited November 16, 2022 by Luca
Saluki Posted November 17, 2022 Posted November 17, 2022 Added a little META, FFX India, MU and ATEX. Trimmed a little FFH and ATCO (I am hoping the take private vote fails and I can buy it back lower, but at this price if it goes through then I am not getting much by holding till the end).
Gregmal Posted November 17, 2022 Posted November 17, 2022 I hate being a scumbag on the short side, but more Tesla short positions
LC Posted November 18, 2022 Posted November 18, 2022 (edited) Love it. Dipping below the 170s? I use bear spreads and then buy a crazy OOM put for cheap, in case it really crashes hard. Edited November 18, 2022 by LC
Gregmal Posted November 18, 2022 Posted November 18, 2022 55 minutes ago, LC said: Love it. Dipping below the 170s? I use bear spreads and then buy a crazy OOM put for cheap, in case it really crashes hard. Actually took some more of the short Tesla etf for day to day simplicity and some January $200 puts. Best way I could find to reduce the premium cost.
Gregmal Posted November 18, 2022 Posted November 18, 2022 Took a stab at some of @Cod Liver Oils IFOS this am. Then realized my limit was above market and I was almost 100% of daily volume lol.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted November 18, 2022 Posted November 18, 2022 8 hours ago, [email protected] said: Have started a position in HZO Long or Short? There is a recent short thesis writeup on VIC. Oddly enough, HZO has been written five times and all five times it was a short!
Red Lion Posted November 18, 2022 Posted November 18, 2022 20 hours ago, LC said: Love it. Dipping below the 170s? I use bear spreads and then buy a crazy OOM put for cheap, in case it really crashes hard. I've been using fairly short term bear spreads on SPY and QQQ this year with great results (overall). I have had a lot more success with spreads than straight puts.
Pelagic Posted November 18, 2022 Posted November 18, 2022 4 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: Long or Short? There is a recent short thesis writeup on VIC. Oddly enough, HZO has been written five times and all five times it was a short! Any chance you could share a synopsis of their short thesis?
Gregmal Posted November 18, 2022 Posted November 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Pelagic said: Any chance you could share a synopsis of their short thesis? It’s VIC, can’t you just see the thesis? Some dork comes out of his city office cubicle screaming “Boss, we’ve got another over earning cyclical heading into rate hikes and Fed tightening!”…..valuation short
whatstheofficerproblem Posted November 19, 2022 Posted November 19, 2022 4 hours ago, Pelagic said: Any chance you could share a synopsis of their short thesis? Yep that's about it, it's a cyclical business that rode the covid wave for profit, and earnings must return to normal.
Ace River Capital Posted November 19, 2022 Posted November 19, 2022 15 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: Long or Short? There is a recent short thesis writeup on VIC. Oddly enough, HZO has been written five times and all five times it was a short! Long
whatstheofficerproblem Posted November 19, 2022 Posted November 19, 2022 1 hour ago, [email protected] said: Long Interesting, would you mind sharing your thesis on the topic? The VIC writeups have corrupted me, I want to know what makes it a long for you.
Pelagic Posted November 19, 2022 Posted November 19, 2022 18 hours ago, Gregmal said: It’s VIC, can’t you just see the thesis? Some dork comes out of his city office cubicle screaming “Boss, we’ve got another over earning cyclical heading into rate hikes and Fed tightening!”…..valuation short Haha that's what I figured. I read this ONEW thesis when I first started researching it and it had some nuance as to why it's preferrable to HZO and talks a bit about HZO specifics as they compare to ONEW. https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ONEWATER_MARINE_INC/0521948621
whatstheofficerproblem Posted November 19, 2022 Posted November 19, 2022 48 minutes ago, Pelagic said: Haha that's what I figured. I read this ONEW thesis when I first started researching it and it had some nuance as to why it's preferrable to HZO and talks a bit about HZO specifics as they compare to ONEW. https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ONEWATER_MARINE_INC/0521948621 I find this Thesis a lot more compelling, and ONEW is trading below the write-up.
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