What are you buying today?

[Spekulatius]

43 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I just Googled this and the internet says you are correct.

This feel like  a circularity or singularity has been reached.

 

On a side note, when you asked google the question" Should I buy XX stock?", you get some interesting answers and links to look at. I actually started doing this as part of my research process.

 

Same with $XX (XX= ticker symbol) in twitter.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

Small add to Uber.

[Benderok]

Added to GOOGL today 

[ValueMaven]

On 9/13/2022 at 6:19 PM, Spekulatius said:

One of the shittiest insurance companies I am aware of (from a shareholders perspective). Hasn’t gone anywhere for 2 decades.

 

I owned shares around 2001 or so and made out OK riding the shares up a bit, but they are pretty much back to the same levels.

 

I liked them as a customer when I lived in CA, lowest rates for the combo of homeowners and car insurance by a country mile for me.

 

What is your thesis?

 

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

[yesman182]

58 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

Didn't they just cut their dividend in half? Didn't California also not allow price increases for another year or so? I am happy to pass on MCY until it is well below book. I will be interested to see what happens when the old man is no longer at the helm. 

[n.r98]

1 hour ago, ValueMaven said:

 

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

 

Speaking about insurance companies - maybe $ARGO might interest you, still looking into it. Right off the bat, already trading at 0.6 BV despite making a division sale at 0.81 BV. Business has been trimming international divisions and current core US insurance biz has a combined ratio <100 whilst previously, blended combined ratio in the 120s. Activists just got on BoD and really pushing for a sale here it seems.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

 

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

Thanks for your perspective. I am not convinced that MCY is a good value. The way I see it, they operate mostly at a combined ratio of 100% , so the result comes from the investment return. I think they operate around 2x premium /equity and their (mostly bond) investment are a bit higher than premiums so with this short duration portfolio, the returns on equity have been mostly below 10%.

 

They did better than that in 2020, but that’s because accident frequency was way down due to less driving. I think for a stock that earns less than 10% on equity (and in fact barely 8% over the years) valuation at book value is about fair. So for me  MCY doesn’t  look all that cheap.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This feel like  a circularity or singularity has been reached.

 

On a side note, when you asked google the question" Should I buy XX stock?", you get some interesting answers and links to look at. I actually started doing this as part of my research process.

 

Same with $XX (XX= ticker symbol) in twitter.

 

Not sure how accurate this visualization is but yeah, more Google.

 

 

[GordonGekko69]

more PAH3, sold puts on PAH3 @ 64 (9/16) @ 67 (9/16) and @ 62 (10/21), little add to PCYO and sold Puts on WBD @ 10.5 (10/28)

Edited September 15, 2022 by GordonGekko69

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter in WRK. I think it's cheap and less cyclical than Mr Market thinks.

[Gregmal]

Bought some more XLE. We now have the Biden put at $80 a barrel. Joe thinks he's gonna keep the price from crashing and replenish the reserves. Little does he know he's already accomplished that, in spades. 

[Gregmal]

Notha 20% add to JOE

[fareastwarriors]

47 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Notha 20% add to JOE

+ $joe one pack here 

Edited September 15, 2022 by fareastwarriors

[Viking]

Added to Fairfax India at under $10. The only unknown is how much money i am going to make… and the timing. Like shooting fish in a barrel.

[CorpRaider]

Ebay

[fareastwarriors]

Ckx and msgs

[Red Lion]

Put on short term QQQ debit put spreads. I've been doing this with SPY to hedge, but QQQ might be more appropriate. 

[formthirteen]

ICE

[CorpRaider]

LAMR

[bennycx]

37 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

ICE

Any opinion on the decline of the mortgage business due to rising rates?

[Red Lion]

Approximately doubled my position in BX at 89.94. 
 

 

[Gregmal]

On 8/26/2022 at 5:11 PM, Gregmal said:

Yea I think it varies. All I own is some October and November IWM puts. The Oct $180 strike for instance went from $2.6-2.8 to now $5. I’ll probably hold it for a few more weeks. Obviously we need to start getting worked up for the September rate hike. I’ve heard the world ends with a 3.5-4% Fed funds rate. So you wanna sell just before everything goes to black.

Took some of these off and split the proceeds into Fairfax and some Novembers.

[formthirteen]

2 hours ago, bennycx said:

Any opinion on the decline of the mortgage business due to rising rates?

 

Seems like a small issue. One of the VIC write-ups had this to say about ICE revenue composition:

 

 35%: Market data (pricing & analytics, exchange data feeds, etc.)
 27%: Derivatives trading & clearing (Brent oil and other energy futures, agricultural and metals futures, European interest rate futures, etc.)

 10%: Transaction-based mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae, MERS, and Simplifile revenues tied to mortgage volumes)
 7%: Recurring mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae subscription revenues not tied to mortgage volumes)

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Added more WRK and few other small adds here and there.

[WayWardCloud]

Charter via Liberty Broadband. The market is pricing in the beginning of yet another classic "Malone incinerates a fortune buying back a melting ice cube to the death" and I just don't see it