Viking Posted August 2, 2022 Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) FFH. Down 5% on the day. Downgrades post Q2 results? RBC did lower their price target on Friday by US$25 to US$725. FFH is almost back down to US$500. Hopefully it continues lower. Will we see US$450 in Q3 as some on this board have speculated might happen (as the hurricanes start showing up)? Gotta love Mr Market. FFH is becoming the gift that keeps on giving. ————— RBC: Our view: Underwriting results continue to hit the marks and top-line growth has been strong driving improved underwriting profits and cash flows. Traditional net investment income continues to rise as assets are deployed to higher yields further supporting earnings growth. Several transactions are in the pipeline which upon closing could add about 10% to book value on top of ordinary earnings. We view FFH shares as a best-in-class value opportunity at about 0.85x book value. There are lots of things going 'right' and we don't see this as being reflected in valuation. Edited August 2, 2022 by Viking
Gregmal Posted August 2, 2022 Posted August 2, 2022 On 7/11/2022 at 2:03 PM, Gregmal said: Been a position I’ve slowly been initiating and building into the sell off. Main thesis is that LYFT and yellow taxis aren’t a real threat, at worst duopoly like market dynamics, increasing pricing power. Gig economy benefactor(even though driving doesn’t seem economic people still do it because they want to work on their own terms), free upside on the delivery business. You can tinker with the numbers but should start generating substantial FCF over the next few years. For those that were interested in UBER a few weeks ago todays release somewhat validates the thesis. I added a smidge more at the open.
Xerxes Posted August 2, 2022 Posted August 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Gregmal said: For those that were interested in UBER a few weeks ago todays release somewhat validates the thesis. I added a smidge more at the open. just the fact that Dara, a Barry Diller protege, and 10-year veteran of Expedia is in charge that is a +ve. they are even talking about capital return back in Q1 investor day.
backtothebeach Posted August 2, 2022 Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Santayana said: FRFHF - Seems like a gift of a quick 5%. Yeah, I topped up my long term position at C$671, and when it dropped even further I got annoyed and entered a little trading position at $649.xx, that I just sold at $674. I don't usually day trade like this, but it seemed a good setup. Better lucky than smart I guess.
spartansaver Posted August 3, 2022 Posted August 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: adding to Nintendo https://www.visualcapitalist.com/20-years-nintendo-console-switch-sales/ This chart always stuck with me. Feel like you can lay the stock price on top of it. Then it just feels like a bet on console sales. Switch feels pretty saturated. I know they've got great IP which is hard to argue with. What's got you buying it?
Agrippa07 Posted August 3, 2022 Posted August 3, 2022 added to Nintendo, opened a new position in MKL and decreased Costco.
Gregmal Posted August 3, 2022 Posted August 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, spartansaver said: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/20-years-nintendo-console-switch-sales/ This chart always stuck with me. Feel like you can lay the stock price on top of it. Then it just feels like a bet on console sales. Switch feels pretty saturated. I know they've got great IP which is hard to argue with. What's got you buying it? It’s above average or better in a number of areas I expect to do well and is fairly cheap with trophy quality IP. Be long eyeballs on screens.
matthew2129 Posted August 3, 2022 Posted August 3, 2022 More NVR. Looks like the just authorized an extra $500M to their buyback program: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nvr-inc-announces-share-repurchase-authorization-301599264.html Weird that they released this in the middle of the trading day. I wonder if they meant to release at 1pm Pacific instead of ET?
Gregmal Posted August 3, 2022 Posted August 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, matthew2129 said: More NVR. Looks like the just authorized an extra $500M to their buyback program: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nvr-inc-announces-share-repurchase-authorization-301599264.html Weird that they released this in the middle of the trading day. I wonder if they meant to release at 1pm Pacific instead of ET? Nah they just DGAF about the standard operating procedure. Love how those guys roll.
Spekulatius Posted August 3, 2022 Posted August 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Gregmal said: adding to Nintendo Same here. Small add only though.
DooDiligence Posted August 3, 2022 Posted August 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: Same here. Small add only though. We'll see if that inventory build is a new Fall console or just locking in materials.
WFF Posted August 4, 2022 Posted August 4, 2022 Added to 1658.HK PSBC. If it keeps dropping, it is on track to be my largest position.
maplevalue Posted August 4, 2022 Posted August 4, 2022 18 hours ago, DooDiligence said: We'll see if that inventory build is a new Fall console or just locking in materials. Best thing they can do is continue to delay the new console. Recent PS/XBOX console releases were a bit of a gongshow with shortages. With the Switch performing as well as it is, seems to make sense to delay the new console until you are reasonably confident you can produce enough of them, and pair it with a blockbuster game release. Possibly a 2023 Holiday release alongside the new Zelda game. On another note NTDOY just previewed the new Pokemon game, which appears to be a shift towards the open-world format (which for that franchise appears to be a major change). Relatively positive reaction around it, with a Switch install base of 100mm and a Nov18 release date, could be 'the' holiday game.
Gregmal Posted August 4, 2022 Posted August 4, 2022 Same. More ALCO. Selling off on awful orange sales which was known back in February but only thing that matters is land sales and value which is still “robust” on the demand side, to use their words. Great payout in the meantime.
Viking Posted August 4, 2022 Posted August 4, 2022 (edited) CVE, MEG, TVE Most energy stocks are getting crushed again the past 2 days. Free cash flow is still massive at $88 oil and will be directed increasingly to stock buybacks (at low prices). Great set up. Edited August 4, 2022 by Viking
CorpRaider Posted August 5, 2022 Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) JBGS. Even though cap rates are likely headed to 12%, I really get a lot of psychic income when people drop a planned move to Crystal City as a flex in casual conversations. [But for real the fact that people do that might reveal a lot about the true value and viability of office...signaling and status and MAYBE the localized network/filtering heuristics.] Edited August 5, 2022 by CorpRaider
Kupotea Posted August 5, 2022 Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) TBF. Economy isn't that weak and inflation isn’t low. Bond yields are heading higher. Edited August 5, 2022 by Kupotea
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