fareastwarriors Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 LLOY is a wonderful customer focused retail bank in the mold of WFC and TD. Also one of the few FIs that didn't need a bailout in 2008. The reason i wouldn't buy it is he level household debt in the UK. I think that represents a large systemic risk. I've searched the Investment Ideas forum, and TD does not pop up in my searches. Why is it so? [i remember posts from CorpRaider and Uccmal about Canadian banks here on CoBF.] Good question. If I ever buy any I will post. Canadian banks and rails sure are fine bidnesses. At a high level, which Canadian bank is most conservative ?
longlake95 Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 BNS, just based ontheir leverage compared to the others.
rb Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 LLOY is a wonderful customer focused retail bank in the mold of WFC and TD. Also one of the few FIs that didn't need a bailout in 2008. The reason i wouldn't buy it is he level household debt in the UK. I think that represents a large systemic risk. I've searched the Investment Ideas forum, and TD does not pop up in my searches. Why is it so? [i remember posts from CorpRaider and Uccmal about Canadian banks here on CoBF.] I honestly couldn't tell you John. Maybe because it's just a really boring Canadian company that just keeps making money but nothing really exciting is happening. It's been a long time holding of mine and I've made a lot of money with them going from the #5 Canadian bank to the #2 Canadian bank (very close to #1). Mind you during this time they had a Jamie level CEO. They're not just a bank, but a monster financial institution. #2 investment bank in Canada, #1 or #2 P&C insurer in Canada (think GEICO). #1 or #2 asset manager in Canada. As I've mentioned on another thread I've stopped adding to it due to several reasosn: 1. The level of Canadian household debt - similar worries as they regard to LLOY as well 2. A lot of other banks have copied its policies/model. 3. They have developed massive operations in the States. I think they are the #6 bank in the US. But as a Canadian bank they are premium priced. So it doesn't make as much sense to me to pay Canadian bank multiples for US bank operations when I can just buy WFC and BAC at (much?) lower valuations. [i actually remember meeting with a Danish board member in Toronto near the TD headquarters (they have a massive office campus) and he was confused about all the TD signs around. He was convinced it was an American bank. I had to explain to him that TD stands for Toronto Dominion.] All that not-withstanding it is still a great company and still one one of my largest positions. But probably one with lower forward potential than it had back in the day.
John Hjorth Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Thank you for the explanation and elaboration, rb, -Great "flyer" & "teaser"! - I'm personally quite heavy [still!] in three of the four major US Banks [JPM, BAC & C]. BAC has been a great investment for me so far over many years, all the way back to "the early days" for me. [i'm now almost 8 years into this non-zero sum game called investing.] I have had a good experience over some years with WFC, too, but exited about one year after the account scandal surfaced [i think it was about about one year, I haven't checked it while posting this] - I couldn't stomach the hair on WFC back then. That basket of three US banks is still a large position for me - and then I have to add on a look-through basis what I own indirectly through my monster position in Berkshire. Some days I actually think I must be out of my friggin' mind doing this. I can't stomach more shares in US banks as of now because of the overall actual situation in USA. I think I'll start taking a look at all the major Canadian banks on a cursory level, trying to take some notes about them individually, and get some understanding of their history and evolution individually, plus doing some reading to understand on overall level the Canadian economy. It's a great exercise to study great companies, whether one engage in them or not [, based on price etc.].
Gregmal Posted July 20, 2020 Posted July 20, 2020 Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales.
jschembs Posted July 20, 2020 Posted July 20, 2020 Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales. Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry.
Spekulatius Posted July 20, 2020 Posted July 20, 2020 Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales. Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. Probably not as rough as owning shopping malls and NYC office space nowadays. FWIW, I added a bit $LEVI today.
Gregmal Posted July 20, 2020 Posted July 20, 2020 Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales. Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. MRTN just posted outstanding results, and after following(like with a lot of names) for some time decided to use some cash to put it in the portfolio. They are incredibly well managed, have an impenetrable balance sheet, have refined the business to be primarily temperature controlled transport rather than competing for everything under the sun. As such they've been able to hold reasonable leverage on pricing and grow revenues much more consistently than the "peers". Theyre basically a trucking company that doesnt really have the problems most trucking companies have, and this has historically been the case.
lnofeisone Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 Pure gamble - OPK 6.5 calendar July31/Aug7th. OPK earnigns are Aug 5th. Looking to short it otherwise.
Broeb22 Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales. Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. MRTN just posted outstanding results, and after following(like with a lot of names) for some time decided to use some cash to put it in the portfolio. They are incredibly well managed, have an impenetrable balance sheet, have refined the business to be primarily temperature controlled transport rather than competing for everything under the sun. As such they've been able to hold reasonable leverage on pricing and grow revenues much more consistently than the "peers". Theyre basically a trucking company that doesnt really have the problems most trucking companies have, and this has historically been the case. Someone recently blogged on ODFL and how despite being in what is typically a "commoditized" business have earned very good returns on capital. Marten doesn't seem to earn returns on capital or achieve operating ratios similar to ODFL. Do you think their business is improving so that returns on capital and operating ratio continue to improve?
KJP Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales. Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. MRTN just posted outstanding results, and after following(like with a lot of names) for some time decided to use some cash to put it in the portfolio. They are incredibly well managed, have an impenetrable balance sheet, have refined the business to be primarily temperature controlled transport rather than competing for everything under the sun. As such they've been able to hold reasonable leverage on pricing and grow revenues much more consistently than the "peers". Theyre basically a trucking company that doesnt really have the problems most trucking companies have, and this has historically been the case. Someone recently blogged on ODFL and how despite being in what is typically a "commoditized" business have earned very good returns on capital. Marten doesn't seem to earn returns on capital or achieve operating ratios similar to ODFL. Do you think their business is improving so that returns on capital and operating ratio continue to improve? Marten and Old Dominion are not in the same segment of the industry, are they? Old Dominion is primarily a "less than truckload" (LTL) shipper. In that model, route density (i.e., local economies of scale) are key. If you routes are denser, and thus your trucks are more full, than your competitors, then you will win. I believe Marten, on the other hand, is much more of a specialized (temperature controlled) truckload shipper. Truckload shippers can't exploit the benefits of route density in the same way as LTL shippers, so their potential competitive advantages, even when well managed, do not appear to be as large as the potential competitive advantages of the LTL model.
Gregmal Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 Yea Marten is much more focused and if anything, a potential tuck in acquisition for an ODFL type. They've spent years shifting away from long haul and just in general, have the whole owner operator thing going on, which explains the consistency of their results over the years and aligns interests in a business that can definitely be challenging.
Spekulatius Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales. Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. MRTN just posted outstanding results, and after following(like with a lot of names) for some time decided to use some cash to put it in the portfolio. They are incredibly well managed, have an impenetrable balance sheet, have refined the business to be primarily temperature controlled transport rather than competing for everything under the sun. As such they've been able to hold reasonable leverage on pricing and grow revenues much more consistently than the "peers". Theyre basically a trucking company that doesnt really have the problems most trucking companies have, and this has historically been the case. Someone recently blogged on ODFL and how despite being in what is typically a "commoditized" business have earned very good returns on capital. Marten doesn't seem to earn returns on capital or achieve operating ratios similar to ODFL. Do you think their business is improving so that returns on capital and operating ratio continue to improve? ODFL is the class act in the industry. I owned it for a bit in 2007 and then sold because of the economic unrest with the upcoming recession back then. I wish I just stashed it in a coffee can. Today the trucking stocks are much much more expensive. Edit, back to the topic, I bought some WFCF today. For whatever reason, there was a very motivated seller who hit every bid.
Gregmal Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 Added a few more BRK. If the current tech reversal trend continues(big week with GOOG and FB ER coming up; two of the most susceptible techies), I think this is a good place to be. Or maybe its just a 1-2 days market head fake to screw with people who like value stocks....probably. EDIT: just grabbed some INTC a bit below $50 as well.
Gregmal Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 Got filled end of day on a GTC order for some PCYO at 8.7
Spekulatius Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 More INTC (my AH buy yesterday was clearly not a great idea) and a bit more CBOE.
Gregmal Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 More INTC (my AH buy yesterday was clearly not a great idea) and a bit more CBOE. Are you just being sarcastic? Rarely does the fundamental investment case go from investable to not a great idea in 24 hours or with a few buck s/t move. Or are you just looking for a quick flip here? Bought a small bit this morning, not super exciting, but basically at mid March levels now.
Spekulatius Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 More INTC (my AH buy yesterday was clearly not a great idea) and a bit more CBOE. Are you just being sarcastic? Rarely does the fundamental investment case go from investable to not a great idea in 24 hours or with a few buck s/t move. Or are you just looking for a quick flip here? Bought a small bit this morning, not super exciting, but basically at mid March levels now. The fundamental bet will need time to work out, but my entry was in retrospect too hastIly, as it often is good idea to wait a bit and letting the bad News And selling to dissipate a bit. In fact even today’s entry may be too early. But then again, I typically start small and adding more is pretty much part of the plan. iI am typically not that keen on turnaround any more, but in this care, I think there is enough meat on the bone that I can get out flat if they keep screwing up and it should work out nicely, if they get a few things right. They are lucky they they have a lot of secular tail winds (5G, cloud, remote working, AI) that goes in their favor he gives them more time and resources to execute. Worst case, they need to pivot and abandon their strategy to keep leading edge manufacturing in house, sell or spin off wafer fabs and use TSM like AMD did more than a decade ago when they couldn’t keep up.
Gregmal Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 Cool, thanks for the explanation. Like you, I buy small, often. I forget who, it may have even been Cramer or one of the CNBC talking heads who said rule of thumb should be wait 3 days from earnings to make a move, but I personally fluctuate between "the fundamentals" mattering, in which case you're being counter productive getting too crazy about entry/exits, and the "trading game" in which case its very important. Of late, the later has been a popular theme with market participants, and I've found myself being influenced a tad by the mentality, at least in terms of my accumulation approach in some instances. Not sure whether thats good, bad, or ultimately meaningless.
LC Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 Buying during after hours directly after bad news is usually not a great move. I estimate more often than not, after hours price action lags rather than leads. Particularly during sensational timeframe (eg the day of earnings release).
LC Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 I bought a tiny bit of MSFT. Bit the bullet so to speak. Time will tell if it is closer to buying PG in the middle of the century or KO in the 90s
Lance Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 Trimmed NEM, sold covered calls on HL and added to ESRT. Thanks Lance
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