Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

Nothing happening so far.  I bought a few puts on Friday for hedging and/ or profit purposes.  Nothing special.  I have set sells on them ranging from 10 to 25 x my purchase price.  My puts on Bam that I got 3 or 4 weeks ago are only at 10x their value right now.  My sell order is in for 25 x p.p. With those. 

 

I have 12 or so companies with lowball orders in.  A lot of companies are still above their 52 week lows.  My bids are well below the 52 week lows: Sbux, Mcd, Hd, FB, Goog, V, Apple, Tesla (100), Costco, Msft, Bam, Bip.un, ema, cnr.  Everything is on autopilot to minimize me from over thinking. 

 

Markets are still irrationally high given the degree of the damage being done to Main Street. 

Posted

Al,

 

How are you positioned now? Any equities?

Posted

If I weren't so heavy on airline puts as it is, think there is some value there.  Already out with the beggar tin for $50 billion....at BEST gonna look like GM and still go BK because they are structurally unprofitable at these levels of flying, or anything close.  We aren't bouncing back to "normal" flying for a long time.  LUV gonna have 47 straight profitable years then bankruptcy.

 

I would be thinking bigger anyway--there is so much bailout money needed, there won't be enough to go around.  Small business, banking, the oil patch, airlines, cruise ships, theme parks, Boeing, industrials, the car companies, junk bonds and their issuers, maybe the health and life insurers....plus all the people.

 

The employees who are getting fired are probably the ones most likely to get bailed out.  Maybe the airlines shouldn't have plowed 97% of their FCF into buybacks, and lavished executives with huge bonuses.  Good luck, even if you do get the bailout (which I hope they won't, regardless of my position). 

 

Not sure if the above poster is referring to me be "Al", but if so, I do have some equities, and they are doing terribly.  Down 40%+ in a lot of cases, and likely to fall further.  Probably should pay more attention to them, but focused on what I perceive are 5-10 baggers available now.

 

 

 

 

Posted

If I weren't so heavy on airline puts as it is, think there is some value there.  Already out with the beggar tin for $50 billion....at BEST gonna look like GM and still go BK because they are structurally unprofitable at these levels of flying, or anything close.  We aren't bouncing back to "normal" flying for a long time.  LUV gonna have 47 straight profitable years then bankruptcy.

 

I would be thinking bigger anyway--there is so much bailout money needed, there won't be enough to go around.  Small business, banking, the oil patch, airlines, cruise ships, theme parks, Boeing, industrials, the car companies, junk bonds and their issuers, maybe the health and life insurers....plus all the people.

 

The employees who are getting fired are probably the ones most likely to get bailed out.  Maybe the airlines shouldn't have plowed 97% of their FCF into buybacks, and lavished executives with huge bonuses.  Good luck, even if you do get the bailout (which I hope they won't, regardless of my position). 

 

Not sure if the above poster is referring to me be "Al", but if so, I do have some equities, and they are doing terribly.  Down 40%+ in a lot of cases, and likely to fall further.  Probably should pay more attention to them, but focused on what I perceive are 5-10 baggers available now.

 

I meant Uccmal but glad to hear your perspective too, always, so thanks. If you don't me asking, what's your total equity exposure then?

Posted

I meant Uccmal but glad to hear your perspective too, always, so thanks. If you don't me asking, what's your total equity exposure then?

 

I'm around 50-60% cash, maybe 10% equities, and around 30% special situations or options. Generally my limits for options are much lower, but it's tough to keep it within limits when they keep going up (see attachment).  I continue to rotate into more bearish names, and more asymmetric bets as I find opportunities.

 

1260013570_s.thumb.PNG.65bd7faa91c0ecfb11c2d1799fb9a6c2.PNG

Posted

Al,

 

How are you positioned now? Any equities?

 

Hi Paul, 130% equities maybe, varies by the day.  It was about 110% 5 weeks ago. 

Hence the puts and why I am patiently waiting for the next major downdraft.  I have 4 untapped lines of credit for backup, if the drop from here exceeds 50%, they may come in handy. 

 

We’ve been here before. 

 

a.

Posted

Anyone looking at the Canadian banks?  They are getting lucrative here.  6-7% dividend yields.  Prices are back to 2006 levels.

 

I am just riding my 10% or so stake in RY down for now. 

 

I have a bid in for RY at 50 CDN, and for TD at a similar discount. Their brokerages are doing well.  :-).  NIMs are compressed.  Dividends, who knows. 

Posted

Anyone looking at the Canadian banks?  They are getting lucrative here.  6-7% dividend yields.  Prices are back to 2006 levels.

 

I want some but decided to wait till close to TBV. 

Posted

I meant Uccmal but glad to hear your perspective too, always, so thanks. If you don't me asking, what's your total equity exposure then?

 

I'm around 50-60% cash, maybe 10% equities, and around 30% special situations or options. Generally my limits for options are much lower, but it's tough to keep it within limits when they keep going up (see attachment).  I continue to rotate into more bearish names, and more asymmetric bets as I find opportunities.

 

Nice man!

Posted

Man what a day.

 

Wondering if Donald is signing todays intraday chart? "I'm not responsible"....

 

Bought FRPH, DD, CTO, MSG, PCYO, BRK, HTL, and small GOOG add

 

 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...