kab60 Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 Cast SA recently. Microcap, french software Company transitioning from perpetual licences to SAAS and recurring revenue. 55m market cap, 23m receivables that should be turned into cash in Q1. Spent some 150m on R&D over the years. Seems to be at an inflection that market has not caught up with (or fatique/lack of confidence in management). They've disappointed for years, seems like they're about to turn the corner with SAAS booking growing almost 200 pct in Q4 albeit from a low base and guiding for overall profitable growth of 20 pct in 2020. Low float, interesting shareholder composition. Think it's gonna go big or go private. :)
Viking Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 Fairfax India. Book value at Sept 30 was $13.53/share. The Anchorage/BIAL transaction will result in BV gain of $3.30/share. This takes book value to about $16.80. Fairfax India owns large stakes in IIFL Finance, IIFL Securities and IIFL Wealth. These are publicly traded companies. So far in 2019 (6 weeks) the stock prices of these 3 companies have increased about 45%. At Dec 31 their combined value to Fairfax India was about $400 million. Today they are worth about $590 million = $190 million gain. With 153 million shares outstanding for Fairfax India the increase in the IICL companies is about $1.20/share. Bottom line, book value of Fairfax India as of today is likely approaching $18.00/share. Shares are trading today at $12.45. Looks like a decent margin of safety to me :-) From Fairfax India Dec 16 press release: “As a result of the transaction, Fairfax India will record investment gains of approximately $506 million (approximately INR 35.6 billion at current exchange rates) implying an increase in book value per share of approximately $3.30 per share. The investment gains are supported by positive operational developments at BIAL. For the 12-month period ending October 2019, total traffic at BIAL was approximately 33.7 million passengers. The second runway commenced operations in December 2019, making BIAL the first airport in India to operate independent parallel runways that enable aircraft to land or take-off simultaneously on both runways. In addition, the expansion project for a second terminal at BIAL is expected to be completed in 2021.”
Spekulatius Posted February 13, 2020 Posted February 13, 2020 ALPIB Dave Waters posted about it yesterday and I immediately knew I wanted to own this one: https://otcadventures.com/?p=2135 Question for the thread: if you are not liquidity constrain, is there any reason why one wanted to own WFC vs ALPIB, beside perhaps dividend yield?
CorpRaider Posted February 14, 2020 Posted February 14, 2020 I have no opinion on that security but I think people could make quite a few arguments in favor of the money center banks versus smaller banks over the medium term and longer: Scale and ability to even make table stakes for the necessary tech investments (only like top 8 banks have a piece of Zelle for example), and lower costs per economic unit (account, customer, loan, whatever) for those investments favors; other scale advantages leading to sub 50 bps cost of deposits before massive costs coming out of the business (they can pretty much take any loan from these small banks if they want it), regulatory capture and potential eventual Canadian-style bank oligopoly. The MTB CEO recent annual letter does a pretty good job of setting up the arguments in favor of the mega banks and then attempting to counter them arguing that (super) regional banks will remain viable.
Gregmal Posted February 14, 2020 Posted February 14, 2020 Bought a tracking position in SDGR. Super interesting company with some big name backers. Quite the valuation, but whatever. If it comes down some more I'll probably play with it a bit.
lnofeisone Posted February 14, 2020 Posted February 14, 2020 Bought a tracking position in SDGR. Super interesting company with some big name backers. Quite the valuation, but whatever. If it comes down some more I'll probably play with it a bit. This one is on my watch list too. Few thoughts: 1) It's very expensive as a stock and as a product (by my standards anyway) 2) TAM is pharma and schools (really specialized and expensive) but they are well known and often to of the list for considerations (based on my anecdotal discussions with friends) 3) Barriers of entry for others are astronomical, they are entrenched for those who know how to use it (working with Universities really helps with that), and there are no real free alternatives. 4) They can add a revenue line by adding consulting services to(e.g., help drugs go through FDA process ) or partner with Charles River 5) SUPER intrigued by Faxian and want to see what they do here. Would be an interesting model if they can identify potential compounds, get them to Phase I, sell to larger pharma to carry across the finish line.
boilermaker75 Posted February 14, 2020 Posted February 14, 2020 Wrote some BRKB 225-strike, Feb 28 expiration puts, $2.21 per share.
Gregmal Posted February 18, 2020 Posted February 18, 2020 Bought some GRBK. Seems like there s a bit of safety in sunbelt RE at the moment.
Spekulatius Posted February 19, 2020 Posted February 19, 2020 More AMA.AX (car repair rollup in Australia, kab60’s pick). A small add to CCU as well.
Lance Posted February 20, 2020 Posted February 20, 2020 Trimmed IAU. Bought VIACA and RDSb. Thanks Lance
Gregmal Posted February 20, 2020 Posted February 20, 2020 Bought a tracking position in SDGR. Super interesting company with some big name backers. Quite the valuation, but whatever. If it comes down some more I'll probably play with it a bit. Citron likes it too https://seekingalpha.com/news/3544070-citron-sees-90-upside-in-this-innovative-drug-discoverer Somewhere there is a market bubble joke in here. How do you buy a big position in a company you like? Buy a small one and wait a few weeks. Anyhow, I sold today, even though it was just a tiny tracker. This is kind of nuts.
Broeb22 Posted February 20, 2020 Posted February 20, 2020 Bought a tracking position in SDGR. Super interesting company with some big name backers. Quite the valuation, but whatever. If it comes down some more I'll probably play with it a bit. Citron likes it too https://seekingalpha.com/news/3544070-citron-sees-90-upside-in-this-innovative-drug-discoverer Somewhere there is a market bubble joke in here. How do you buy a big position in a company you like? Buy a small one and wait a few weeks. Anyhow, I sold today, even though it was just a tiny tracker. This is kind of nuts. I really liked what I read about Schrodinger based on my limited understanding of what CRISPR tech will open up for drug firms. It seemed like a good company, but only at a price that compensated for my significant limitations in the world of science and biotech. It was a leap too far for me ultimately.
Gregmal Posted February 20, 2020 Posted February 20, 2020 Yea CRISPR will/is changing everything. There are so many offshoot and modifications from the base technology that its quite incredible. I have a few friends in grad programs at some of the top biomedical engineering programs and everyone says the same thing; that CRISPR is now the foundation for pretty much every application they study. Finding areas to invest is hard though. IP is somewhat vague. The companies working on it trade on potential revenue thats like half a decade or more out, at best...and nothing is even remotely cheap. BEAM Therapuetics I like as well, but its in the same boat.
Broeb22 Posted February 20, 2020 Posted February 20, 2020 Yea CRISPR will/is changing everything. There are so many offshoot and modifications from the base technology that its quite incredible. I have a few friends in grad programs at some of the top biomedical engineering programs and everyone says the same thing; that CRISPR is now the foundation for pretty much every application they study. Finding areas to invest is hard though. IP is somewhat vague. The companies working on it trade on potential revenue thats like half a decade or more out, at best...and nothing is even remotely cheap. BEAM Therapuetics I like as well, but its in the same boat. My first instinct with stuff like this that is relatively new (at least new to being commercialized in any significant way) is that there are likely to be better mousetraps built over time. Based on what you know is this kind of software the kind of thing that would have network effects, where one researcher in CA thinks hey I found something promising so I'm going to send it to my buddy in Boston, and they'll need the same software to be able to see the same things? That would be great. I wonder if these softwares won't end up being part of a menu of choices to find new drugs. What I mean is Schrodinger says they their recommendations are physics-based. Maybe that type of software views the world of drug candidates a certain way. Then another type of CRISPR software with some other foundation might be better suited for other applications. From what I read, Schrodinger believed their software was better than others because their software can analyze all potential physical relationships between atoms, even ones that haven't ever been tested. The other CRISPR softwares are more based on actual attempted molecules by other scientists, so they kind of function like machine learning where the more molecules that are input into the software by other scientists the more the software "knows". This probably sounds like gibberish, and it probably is, but its a fascinating area of research/business. The idea that biotech could become a lot more like any other type of manufacturing has profound implications for the pace of drug discovery and ultimately the cost to bring drugs to market, which could reduce the prices of previously very expensive treatments. There was a great Andreesseen Horowitz presentation on this a couple months ago.
Gregmal Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 Yea CRISPR will/is changing everything. There are so many offshoot and modifications from the base technology that its quite incredible. I have a few friends in grad programs at some of the top biomedical engineering programs and everyone says the same thing; that CRISPR is now the foundation for pretty much every application they study. Finding areas to invest is hard though. IP is somewhat vague. The companies working on it trade on potential revenue thats like half a decade or more out, at best...and nothing is even remotely cheap. BEAM Therapuetics I like as well, but its in the same boat. My first instinct with stuff like this that is relatively new (at least new to being commercialized in any significant way) is that there are likely to be better mousetraps built over time. Based on what you know is this kind of software the kind of thing that would have network effects, where one researcher in CA thinks hey I found something promising so I'm going to send it to my buddy in Boston, and they'll need the same software to be able to see the same things? That would be great. I wonder if these softwares won't end up being part of a menu of choices to find new drugs. What I mean is Schrodinger says they their recommendations are physics-based. Maybe that type of software views the world of drug candidates a certain way. Then another type of CRISPR software with some other foundation might be better suited for other applications. From what I read, Schrodinger believed their software was better than others because their software can analyze all potential physical relationships between atoms, even ones that haven't ever been tested. The other CRISPR softwares are more based on actual attempted molecules by other scientists, so they kind of function like machine learning where the more molecules that are input into the software by other scientists the more the software "knows". This probably sounds like gibberish, and it probably is, but its a fascinating area of research/business. The idea that biotech could become a lot more like any other type of manufacturing has profound implications for the pace of drug discovery and ultimately the cost to bring drugs to market, which could reduce the prices of previously very expensive treatments. There was a great Andreesseen Horowitz presentation on this a couple months ago. The CRISPR application stuff is crazy complex and has shoot offs that make it very difficult to really determine "ownership" per say, which is different than an AI based software application. When you integrate aspects of the two though, you probably have something pretty remarkable, or at least capable of being pretty remarkable; although a lot of that is out of my universe in terms of understanding it. So yes, theoretically you could have some AI programs running simulations and algorithms to narrow down the field of combinations that ultimately leads to, say, a CRISPR pill capable of knocking out one's susceptibility to the flu...or (substitute pretty much anything). I feel the programming and software element is actually a little easier to track because its more defined and ownership is clear. Whereas the CRISPR applications you are seeing in labs, have many different intricacies to them and will undoubtedly continue to evolve. First, you had the Cas9 which then had sub approaches. Then you had the whole cpf1 approach widely deemed to be better due to improved precision. Not long after the c2c(x) developments. And so on. Its largely the same names doing a lot of the heavy lifting here, and as some have pointed out, its hard to really pin down how, say "Editas" will be the one who makes money from this 10 years from now, but its a game changing development and those with associations to it should reap the benefits, especially in a decent market.
Spekulatius Posted February 21, 2020 Posted February 21, 2020 Schrodingers software helps with drug discovery, but I don’t think it has any impact on the time consuming clinical trials Phase I-3 where the real money is spent. CRISP at this point is ay an early stage and we do not know how effective that approach will be. Any treatment likely is at least 5 years off. It is likely that there will be opportunities where the hype cools off and those type of stocks can be acquired way cheaper, but who knows.
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